唐納德·特朗普會競選第三任期并獲勝嗎？
Will Donald Trump run for a third term and win?
譯文簡介
網(wǎng)友：擁有政治和經(jīng)濟學(xué)位,曾游歷過45多個國家。美國憲法不允許總統(tǒng)第三次連任,即便是唐納德·特朗普也不行。
正文翻譯
Will Donald Trump run for a third term and win?
唐納德·特朗普會競選第三任期并獲勝嗎？
唐納德·特朗普會競選第三任期并獲勝嗎？
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Politics and economics degree. Travelled far and wide to over 45 countries.
The US constitution does not allow for a third presidential term. Even for Donald Trump.
Coming into effect in February 1951, the US constitution’s 22nd amendment limits presidents to two four-year terms, irrespective of whether they were served consecutively or not. The amendment is also worded so that there also presidential term limits for vice presidents who have been in that post for two or more years.
Amending the US constitution is notoriously difficult. After a proposed constitutional change by two-thirds of both Congressional houses, any amendments require at least three quarters of all the states to ratify, before they come into force. The likelihood of changes to presidential term limits before the next election in 2028 is remote.
擁有政治和經(jīng)濟學(xué)位,曾游歷過45多個國家。
美國憲法不允許總統(tǒng)第三次連任,即便是唐納德·特朗普也不行。
自1951年2月生效的美國憲法第二十二修正案規(guī)定，總統(tǒng)只能連任兩屆四年任期，無論這些任期是否連續(xù)。該修正案還規(guī)定，對擔(dān)任副總統(tǒng)兩年或兩年以上的副總統(tǒng)也有任期限制。
修改美國憲法是極為困難的。在國會兩院三分之二的議員提出憲法修改提議后，任何修正案都需要至少四分之三的州批準才能生效。在2028年下一屆選舉前改變總統(tǒng)任期限制的可能性非常小。
Running mates. US Vice President elect James D Vance assumes office from 20 January 2025. Could he chose US President elect Trump as his own VP running mate in 2028?
然而，特朗普有可能成為未來的美國副總統(tǒng)。這需要他被選為未來總統(tǒng)候選人的競選伙伴。副總統(tǒng)當(dāng)選人詹姆斯·D·范斯似乎為特朗普在2028年之后繼續(xù)在美國政治中發(fā)揮作用提供了一條途徑。然而，如果未來的總統(tǒng)范斯辭職或在任期間死亡，這將對總統(tǒng)繼任順序產(chǎn)生影響。
競選伙伴,美國副總統(tǒng)當(dāng)選人詹姆斯·D·范斯將于2025年1月20日就職,他能在2028年選擇美國總統(tǒng)當(dāng)選人特朗普作為自己的副總統(tǒng)競選伙伴嗎？
The VP has to be someone capable of taking over the presidency legitimately. So someone with less than 1 and a half terms already in the role.
He can be any of the other positions in the succession like secretary of state but, as for non natural born citizens appointed to those roles, he would be removed fron the succession.
Though I actually doubt he'll be in any fit state to stand by 28. I'm betting on Vance wheeling him out for public appearances in a few years on a gurney surrounded by medical devices keeping him alive as for Cold War era Soviet Premieres…
副總統(tǒng)必須具備合法接任總統(tǒng)職位的資格，因此，擔(dān)任過總統(tǒng)超過一個半任期的人不符合條件。
他可以擔(dān)任繼任順位中的其他職位，例如國務(wù)卿，但如果這些職位由非自然出生的公民擔(dān)任，則該人將被排除在繼任順位之外。
雖然我實際上懷疑他到2028年時是否還適合參選。我打賭范斯會在幾年后用擔(dān)架把他推出來公開露面，周圍是醫(yī)療設(shè)備讓他活著，就像冷戰(zhàn)時期的蘇聯(lián)總理.
Trump cannot become anyone’s VP. This was made clear at the close of Obama’s second term. Due to the nature of the VP’s position, that of having to be ready to become President if necessary, someone ineligible for the presidency is de facto ineligible for the vice presidency. Besides, Trump’s ego would never let him stoop to being anyone’s number 2.
特朗普不能成為任何人的副總統(tǒng)。這在奧巴馬第二任期結(jié)束時已經(jīng)明確。由于副總統(tǒng)的位置性質(zhì)，即必須準備好在必要時成為總統(tǒng)，一個沒有資格成為總統(tǒng)的人實際上也沒有資格成為副總統(tǒng)。此外，特朗普的自尊心永遠不會讓他屈尊成為任何人的第二號人物。
Yep. Over and above the constitutional reasons it couldn't happen, Trump's ego couldn't handle being VP to someone else. He's already in mental decline though, and by 2028 he'll make 2024 Joe Biden look like the pinnacle of mental acuity.
是的。除了憲法原因外，特朗普的自尊心無法接受成為別人的副總統(tǒng)。他的精神已經(jīng)衰退了，到了2028年，他會讓2024年的喬·拜登看起來像精神敏銳的巔峰。
If he stays a full term, anything’s possible. However, it’s possible he starts all the balls rolling and steps down after two years and a month. That’s a two way benefit for him. If things work out, Vance would be able to have two full terms and almost half of one which ensures Trump’s policies remain in effect for a long time. If things don’t work out, Trump can blame someone else for messing up his “big, beautiful plan,” thereby maintaining his belief that he’s a water walker.
如果他能完整地完成任期，那么一切皆有可能。然而，也有可能他在啟動一系列事務(wù)后，在兩年零一個月時就辭職。這對他來說有雙重好處：如果事情進展順利，范斯將能夠完成兩個完整的任期，再加上幾乎半個任期，這確保了特朗普的政策能夠長期持續(xù)。如果事情進展不順利，特朗普可以將他的“宏偉而美麗計劃”失敗歸咎于他人，從而維持他自己是能夠創(chuàng)造奇跡的人的信念。
But the supreme courts with judges in Trump’s favor could interpret it differently. Unlikely, especially at Trump’s age within his third year of this term, that the Supreme Court would feel any pressure to take on the case and to grant him that.
但是，如果最高法院的法官支持特朗普，他們可能會有不同的解釋。盡管如此，在特朗普任期的第三年，考慮到他的年齡，最高法院不太可能感到有壓力去受理這個案件，并讓他這樣操作。
You’ve got that backwards. The originalist court we have now is less likely to give Trump the leeway to go against the Constitution.
你理解反了。我們現(xiàn)在的法院傾向于原旨主義，不太可能允許特朗普違背憲法行事。
Besides the fact that he'd be old asf in 2028, the same reason they've been saying Biden was too old to run again. Technically (if he survives), Biden could run again in ‘28, but the only problem with that is that he'll be older asf. Hell, Jimmy Carter could run again. But no one would support that.
此外，到了2028年，他也非常老了，這就是他們一直在說拜登太老不能再競選的原因。嚴格來說（如果他能活下來），拜登可以在2028年再次參選，但唯一的問題是他會更老。見鬼，吉米·卡特可以再次參選，但沒有人會支持的。
Or, if 25th’d out in 2 years it could be up to 10 years of Vance.
或者，如果第25條修正案在兩年內(nèi)被觸發(fā)，那么范斯可能會有長達10年的任期。
Trump won the Presidential Election in 2016 and 2020 (according to him). He should not have been allowed to win a third term.
特朗普聲稱他贏得了2016年和2020年的總統(tǒng)選舉，他不應(yīng)該被允許再贏得第三個任期。
Twelfth amendment:
’But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.’
So Trump cannot be made VP. He could run as a Senator or Representative, or be appointed to the Supreme Court- but his time in the White House ends in 2029.
《第十二修正案》指出：
“任何在憲法上不具備擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)資格的人，均不得擔(dān)任美國副總統(tǒng)。”
因此，特朗普不能擔(dān)任副總統(tǒng)。但他可以參選參議員或眾議員，甚至被任命為最高法院大法官。不過，他的白宮之路將在2029年終結(jié)。
Welcome clarification, thank you.
感謝解答，十分清楚。
If Vance ran for president in 2028, picked Trump as his VP, then died, Trump would indeed be president for a 3rd time. The constitution says that Trump (or anyone else) cannot be ELECTED to a 3rd term. In this scenario, he would not have been elected to the office.
如果范斯（Vance）在2028年競選總統(tǒng)，并選擇特朗普為副總統(tǒng)，而范斯不幸去世，那么特朗普確實可能第三次擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)。憲法只禁止特朗普（或其他人）“被選為”第三個總統(tǒng)任期，而在這種情況下，他并非通過選舉成為總統(tǒng)。
No, Trump cannot become a future Vice President. The Constitution forbids the vice presidency for a person who is not eligible to be President, and after four years it’s definitely over for Trump, having done two terms.
特朗普未來無法擔(dān)任副總統(tǒng)。憲法明確規(guī)定，不具備總統(tǒng)資格的人不能擔(dān)任副總統(tǒng)。而在完成兩屆總統(tǒng)任期后，特朗普的總統(tǒng)生涯就已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Line of Succession still requires a person to meet all requirements.
While I am currently unsure of VP requirements, anyone else in the line (Secretaries for instance) must still meet age and natural born citizenship to be President, if it came to that.
If Maxwell Frost was given a Cabinet position (say SecState), he’d be ineligible for President if it somehow fell to him in Line of Succession, due to his age.
總統(tǒng)繼任順序仍需滿足所有憲法規(guī)定的條件。
雖然我目前不確定副總統(tǒng)的具體要求，但繼任順序中的其他官員（如內(nèi)閣部長）若需繼任總統(tǒng)，也必須滿足年齡和“自然出生公民”的資格。
比如，如果馬克斯韋爾·弗羅斯特（Maxwell Frost）擔(dān)任國務(wù)卿，而繼任順序最終輪到他，他將因為年齡不符合要求而無法擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)。
I think vance will dissappear afyer 2 years
我覺得范斯可能兩年后就銷聲匿跡了。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Donald Trump has been given the power to ignore the constitution or even wipe his butt with it.
特朗普已經(jīng)獲得了可以無視憲法甚至拿憲法當(dāng)廁紙的權(quán)力。
Blimey, just how many pages IS this Constitution?! ??
天哪，這部憲法到底有多少頁?。?/b>
And is it double ply.
而且它是雙層的嗎？
Trump has eight or nine years left tops. Then it's the Lake in Hell where those guilty of treason are eaten by Satan himself.
特朗普最多還能再活八九年。之后他將下地獄，那些犯有叛國罪的人會被撒旦親自吞食。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
they're going to have to post someone just to label all the couches that JD Vance has fucked so no innocent people sit in them
他們可能得派個人專門給范斯坐過的沙發(fā)貼標簽，以免無辜的人不小心坐上去。
Donald Trump no Donald Trump Jr yes
唐納德·特朗普不行，但小唐納德·特朗普或許可以。
Trump is the first person in US history to own a major US political party. After January 2025, he’ll be the first person in US history to own the US as a country.
特朗普是美國歷史上第一個掌控主要政黨的人。在2025年1月之后，他將成為美國歷史上第一個掌控整個國家的人。
Yes very likely…why you might ask well
The Constitution right now essentially is toilet paper, and if being blunt rule of law is a joke. If you think Americans give a fuk about the Constitution you'd be wrong, Americans don't give a fuk about anything or anyone. Americans are selfish, morally bankrupt and incapable of anything other than being a holes and monsters.
Next a big majority of Trump supporters can't even imagine a life without trump, basically he's all they know since 2016. Without trump these people won't even cope well.
確實很有可能……你可能會問為什么？
美國憲法現(xiàn)在基本上就是廢紙一張，坦白說，法治不過是個笑話。如果你認為美國人真的在乎憲法，那你就錯了，美國人不在乎任何事情，也不在乎任何人。美國人自私、道德淪喪，除了成為混蛋和怪物之外，他們什么都不會。
再者，大多數(shù)特朗普的支持者根本無法想象一個沒有特朗普的世界，畢竟從2016年開始，他們的生活就圍繞著他轉(zhuǎn)。沒有了特朗普，這些人可能連正常應(yīng)對生活都會很困難。
I’m going to assume that you know NOTHING about the US Constitution.
Because (1) you are a foreigner, and shouldn’t be expected to.
Or (2) you went to a government funded school, and CIVICS was never touched on.
By law, the President can get ELECTED twice, and if he was serving out part of someone else’s term (Oh my God, aliens ate the President!), it has to have been for not more than 1 day less than half of the former President’s term.
So NO, he cannot win a third term. Only a second.
我要假設(shè)你對美國憲法一無所知。
因為（1）你是一個外國人，我們不指望你知道這些。
或者（2）你上的是政府資助的學(xué)校，他們從不教你公民知識。
根據(jù)法律規(guī)定，總統(tǒng)可以被選舉兩次。如果他是在完成別人的任期（比如，天哪，總統(tǒng)被外星人綁架了！），那么他完成的這部分任期必須不超過“前任總統(tǒng)任期的一半減去一天”。
所以，不，他不能贏得第三任期，僅僅能競選第二任任期而已。
Say, if third terms somehow become allowed, I guess Trump could be running against Obama. Pass me the popcorn. I'm going to enjoy watching the Hawaiian take the New Yorker down just like the Vancouver Whitecaps took down the New York Cosmos. Too obscure?
比如說，如果允許第三次連任，我猜特朗普可能會和奧巴馬競爭。給我來點爆米花，我迫不及待想看這位夏威夷人如何擊敗紐約客，就像溫哥華白帽隊擊敗紐約宇宙隊那樣。這比喻會不會太隱晦了點？
The fat fool is already old, he'd first have to win a second term and the rule is a president can have just two terms, however there is a precedent FDR actually won four terms in office, I think since then American law changed this.
Trump is 76 now ( could be older) there is two and a half years before the next presidential election meaning the fat bastard will be approaching his 79th birthday, he would be 83 if he ran for a third term, now given that here lardarse is on the morbidly obese scale and obviously mentally unstable or with a possibility of a substantial prison sentence hanging over his head, it is then highly unlikely that he will run again
這個老糊涂已經(jīng)夠老了，他首先得贏得第二任期，但規(guī)定是總統(tǒng)只能連任兩屆。雖然有先例，比如羅斯福實際上連任了四屆，但我想從那以后美國法律已經(jīng)改變了這一點。
特朗普現(xiàn)在76歲（可能更老），距離下一屆總統(tǒng)選舉還有兩年半，這意味著到時這個老家伙將接近79歲，如果他競選第三任期，將會是83歲?？紤]到他現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)是極度肥胖，精神顯然也不穩(wěn)定，或者可能面臨重大的監(jiān)禁判決，他再次參選的可能性非常小。
Do you think that Donald Trump, if reelected, will try for a third term?
All he has to do is convince Congress to propose a constitutional amendment that repeals (or possibly modifies) the 22nd amendment. The constitutional procedure for doing this requires a 2/3 majority vote in both houses of Congress and then a ratification process that requires buy-in from 3/4 of the states. There is also a constitutional convention approach, which is even more time-consuming. Either way, Trump better start working on getting Congress to write up the amendment today if he plans to run a third time.
If the 22nd amendment is not modified or repealed, he cannot legally try for a third term.
你覺得如果特朗普再次當(dāng)選，他會嘗試爭取第三任期嗎？
他需要做的僅僅是說服國會提出一個憲法修正案，來廢除（或者可能修改）第二十二修正案。按照憲法規(guī)定的程序，這需要在國會兩院都獲得至少三分之二的多數(shù)票，隨后還需要得到四分之三的州的認可。還有一種方法是通過憲法大會來實現(xiàn)，但這會更加耗時。無論如何，如果特朗普打算第三次參選，他最好現(xiàn)在就開始努力說服國會起草這項修正案。
如果第二十二修正案沒有被修改或廢除，他就不能合法地爭取第三任期。
You’re kidding, right? Or do you honestly think something as trivial as laws or the constitution would prevent this madman from doing whatever the hell he wants?
Besides, if he’s re-elected in 2020 there won’t be any more elections. Our supreme leader will create some disaster, find a convenient scapegoat, most likely us Jews, declare a national emergency, and then he will force congress to pass an enabling act “temporarily” suspending civil liberties and “temporarily” concentrating the three branches of government into the executive branch.
你是在開玩笑嗎？或者你真的認為法律或憲法這樣的東西能阻止這個瘋子做他想做的任何事情？
此外，如果他在2020年就競選 成功，將不會再進行選舉了。我們的最高領(lǐng)袖會制造一些災(zāi)難，找到一個方便的替罪羊，很可能是我們猶太人，宣布國家緊急狀態(tài)，然后他會迫使國會通過一項授權(quán)法案，“暫時”中止公民自由，“暫時”將政府的三個分支集中到行政部門。
I don’t doubt you are right about his desires, but there are hopefully enough of our democratic institutions still operating to prevent him from realizing all of them. But his willingness to ignore Congress — and the willingness of some Republicans in Congress to be ignored — is not a hopeful sign.
我毫不懷疑你對他的愿望的判斷是正確的，但讓我們期待我們的民主制度仍在有效運作，能夠阻止他實現(xiàn)所有這些愿望。然而，他忽視國會的意愿——以及國會中一些共和黨人被忽視的意愿——并不是一個積極的信號。
He won't use Jewish people to suspend civil liberties. He won't jeopardize darling Ivanka and her beloved Jared. He'll do it to us African- Americans. Nobody needs us.
他不會利用猶太人來中止公民自由。他不會冒險影響到他心愛的伊萬卡和她的丈夫賈里德。他會對我們非洲裔美國人這么做，畢竟我們是無關(guān)緊要的。
I think he has only served one term which would mean that if he wins in 2024 that would be his second term. After that he cannot run again.
我認為他只擔(dān)任過一屆，這意味著如果他在2024年贏得選舉，那將是他第二屆任期。之后他就不能再競選了。
Could Trump run for a third term?
Optimistic, aren’t you. He’s still in the hot seat for impeachment, and hasn’t even been nominated again, yet. Nor has he won a second term. And there is absolutely no Constitutional way to run for a third term, even if, God forbid, he gets re-elected. It would require a Constitutional Amendment, and the way the first one was written, it didn’t apply to anyone currently in office.
特朗普能競選第三任嗎？
你真樂觀。他現(xiàn)在還在面臨彈劾的困境，而且還沒有被提名參選。他甚至沒有贏得第二任期。而且，根據(jù)憲法，他絕對沒有可能競選第三任期，即使他再次當(dāng)選（但愿不會）。這需要憲法修正案，而且根據(jù)第一個修正案的措辭，它并不適用于任何現(xiàn)任官員。
Do you think that Donald Trump, if reelected, will try for a third term?
He is unlikely to be elected. He definitely isn’t popular enough to get a person Constitutional amendment passed.
你認為唐納德·特朗普如果再次當(dāng)選，會嘗試爭取第三個任期嗎？
他不太可能當(dāng)選。他絕對沒有那么受歡迎，以至于能讓人通過一項憲法修正案。
同時，別忘了他可能也不夠健康。我不僅不預(yù)期特朗普能在2025年1月20日還擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)，我認為他那時是否還在世都是個問題。記住，特朗普已經(jīng)73歲了，不進行鍛煉，體重超標，可能已經(jīng)屬于肥胖，飲食習(xí)慣不佳，并且拒絕公布他健康狀況的準確信息。
Everything I stated is a publicly known fact: Trump is 73, it’s well known he does no regular, or really any, exercise, well known his diet is bad, anybody who sees a photo can observe he’s borderline obese at best. When he does release medical reports, they claim he’s 6′ 3″ and 239 lbs, an obvious lie. Which implies other claims about his overall good health may also be lies.
我所說的一切都是公開的事實：特朗普73歲，眾所周知他不進行規(guī)律的鍛煉，飲食習(xí)慣差，任何人都可以從照片中看出他至少是接近肥胖的。當(dāng)他發(fā)布醫(yī)療報告時，聲稱自己身高6英尺3英寸、體重239磅，這明顯是謊言。這也讓人懷疑他關(guān)于自己整體健康狀況良好的其他聲明也可能是不真實的。