This is the first in a two-part series about the tariffs likely to be levied on China during Donald Trump’s second term as US president. This part examines the state of trade and taxation from the Americans’ point of view, while part two explores China’s side of the story.

這是一個(gè)關(guān)于唐納德·特朗普第二任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)期間可能對(duì)中國(guó)征收的關(guān)稅的兩部分系列文章的第一部分。第一部分從美國(guó)的角度審視貿(mào)易和稅收的現(xiàn)狀，而第二部分則探討中國(guó)的立場(chǎng)。
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When Robert Lighthizer speaks of his early life – spent in a once-thriving industrial town deep in the American rust belt – the long-time Donald Trump ally makes it clear his commitment to reviving domestic manufacturing is as personal as it is political.

當(dāng)羅伯特·萊特希澤談到他早年生活在一個(gè)曾經(jīng)繁榮的美國(guó)銹帶工業(yè)城鎮(zhèn)度過(guò)時(shí)，這位長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的特朗普盟友明確表示，他對(duì)振興國(guó)內(nèi)制造業(yè)的承諾既是個(gè)人的，也是政治的。

Having shaped trade policy during Trump’s first term as president, the former United States Trade Representative (USTR) views reindustrialization – and wiping out what he sees as China’s edge in trade – as a patriotic mission and economic necessity.

在特朗普第一任總統(tǒng)期間制定貿(mào)易政策的前美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表（USTR）將再工業(yè)化，以及消除他所認(rèn)為的中國(guó)在貿(mào)易中的優(yōu)勢(shì)，視為一項(xiàng)愛(ài)國(guó)使命和經(jīng)濟(jì)必要性。

“We need substantial tariffs on China because they are an adversary, they’re taking advantage of us. Now we have to get that back to balance,” the 77-year-old lawyer said last month in a lengthy talk with the Intercollegiate Studies Institute (ISI), a conservative educational non-profit.

“我們需要對(duì)中國(guó)征收大量關(guān)稅，因?yàn)樗麄兪俏覀兊膶?duì)手，他們?cè)诶梦覀儭，F(xiàn)在我們必須恢復(fù)平衡，”這位77歲的律師上個(gè)月在與保守派教育非營(yíng)利組織跨學(xué)院研究所（ISI）進(jìn)行的長(zhǎng)時(shí)間交談中說(shuō)道。

Now, as Trump prepares a return to the White House, a new era of economic policy driven by tariffs appears all but certain.

現(xiàn)在，隨著特朗普準(zhǔn)備重返白宮，由關(guān)稅驅(qū)動(dòng)的新經(jīng)濟(jì)政策時(shí)代似乎幾乎已成定局。
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Having named a series of prominent hawks to his cabinet – though Lighthizer himself has yet to be placed in a top spot – the president-elect seems poised to implement the same punitive measures he adopted in his first term, if not more stringent action.

盡管萊特希澤本人尚未被任命為重要職位，但總統(tǒng)當(dāng)選人已任命了一系列著名的鷹派人士進(jìn)入他的內(nèi)閣，似乎準(zhǔn)備實(shí)施他第一任期采取的懲罰性措施，甚至采取更嚴(yán)格的行動(dòng)。

Trump’s choice for commerce secretary, the investment banker Howard Lutnick, issued a full-throated defence of import duties in an October interview on finance broadcaster CNBC. “Tariffs are an amazing tool,” he said. “If we want to make it in America, tariff it.”

特朗普選擇的商務(wù)部長(zhǎng)，投資銀行家霍華德·勒特尼克，在10月的財(cái)經(jīng)廣播公司CNBC采訪中對(duì)進(jìn)口關(guān)稅進(jìn)行了全面辯護(hù)?！瓣P(guān)稅是一個(gè)了不起的工具，”他說(shuō)?！叭绻覀兿朐诿绹?guó)制造產(chǎn)品，就要征收關(guān)稅。”

Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, the nominee for treasury secretary, has taken up a similar line of argument. “Other countries have taken advantage of the US’s openness for far too long, because we allowed them to,” he said in a Fox News opinion piece last week. “Tariffs,” he added, “are a means to finally stand up for Americans.”

對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理斯科特·貝森特，財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)提名人，也采取了類似的論點(diǎn)?！捌渌麌?guó)家利用美國(guó)的開(kāi)放已經(jīng)太久了，因?yàn)槲覀冊(cè)试S他們這樣做，”他在上周的?？怂剐侣勗u(píng)論文章中寫(xiě)道。他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，“關(guān)稅”是最終為美國(guó)人挺身而出的手段。

For many observers, the only questions related to tariffs are those of scope and timing, as heightened import taxes serve several of Trump’s stated goals: bringing back investment, rejuvenating domestic industry and furthering a “strategic decoupling” from China.

對(duì)于許多觀察家來(lái)說(shuō)，關(guān)稅相關(guān)的唯一問(wèn)題是范圍和時(shí)間，因?yàn)樘岣叩倪M(jìn)口稅為特朗普的幾個(gè)既定目標(biāo)服務(wù)：恢復(fù)投資、振興國(guó)內(nèi)工業(yè)以及進(jìn)一步與中國(guó)“戰(zhàn)略脫鉤”。

With the global trade landscape already significantly altered since his previous administration, critics said, whether a fresh wave of tariffs will accomplish Trump’s goals remains an open question.

批評(píng)者說(shuō)，隨著全球貿(mào)易格局自他上屆政府以來(lái)已發(fā)生重大變化，新一輪關(guān)稅能否實(shí)現(xiàn)特朗普的目標(biāo)仍然是一個(gè)懸而未決的問(wèn)題。

For Lighthizer, an avowed protectionist who led the trade war against China during his time as USTR, tariffs are a “countermeasure” to Beijing’s industrial policy. He and other trade hawks have said this state-driven strategy distorts fair competition and puts American manufacturers on the back-heel.

對(duì)于萊特希澤來(lái)說(shuō)，這位在擔(dān)任USTR期間領(lǐng)導(dǎo)對(duì)華貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的公開(kāi)保護(hù)主義者，關(guān)稅是北京工業(yè)政策的“對(duì)策”。他和其他貿(mào)易鷹派人士表示，這種國(guó)家驅(qū)動(dòng)的戰(zhàn)略扭曲了公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，并使美國(guó)制造商處于劣勢(shì)。

Such a “constructed advantage” has led to economic despair and a host of societal issues, he said.

他說(shuō)，這種“構(gòu)建的優(yōu)勢(shì)”導(dǎo)致了經(jīng)濟(jì)絕望和一系列社會(huì)問(wèn)題。

Consequently, Trump has said a rejuvenation of US manufacturing would be his top priority when in power, proposing a 60 per cent tariff on products made in China and a 10 per cent to 20 per cent flat duty on all imports.

因此，特朗普表示，振興美國(guó)制造業(yè)將是他執(zhí)政時(shí)的首要任務(wù)，提議對(duì)中國(guó)制造的產(chǎn)品征收60%的關(guān)稅，并對(duì)所有進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品征收10%到20%的統(tǒng)一稅。

“We’re going to bring the companies back. We’re going to lower taxes for companies that are going to make their products in the USA. And we’re going to protect those companies with strong tariffs,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg last month.

“我們將把公司帶回來(lái)。我們將降低在美國(guó)制造產(chǎn)品的公司的稅收。我們將通過(guò)強(qiáng)有力的關(guān)稅保護(hù)這些公司，”他上個(gè)月在接受彭博社采訪時(shí)說(shuō)道。

“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariffs’.”

“對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)，字典中最美麗的詞是‘關(guān)稅’。”

To Trump and his allies, import duties are the essential tool for protecting American manufacturing, which they believe was devastated by a series of US trade policies enacted since the 1990s.

對(duì)于特朗普及其盟友來(lái)說(shuō)，進(jìn)口稅是保護(hù)美國(guó)制造業(yè)的基本工具，他們認(rèn)為自1990年代以來(lái)實(shí)施的一系列美國(guó)貿(mào)易政策摧毀了美國(guó)制造業(yè)。

Two events during this period are often referenced as watersheds, and were named specifically by Lighthizer – the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1992, and China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization.

這段時(shí)期的兩個(gè)事件經(jīng)常被認(rèn)為是分水嶺，并被萊特希澤特別提到，1992年簽署的北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定和中國(guó)2001年加入世界貿(mào)易組織。

Whatever the cause, the US share of global manufacturing has fallen dramatically in recent decades. According to a June report from Forbes, that figure has fallen from about 25 per cent in the early 1980s to about 10 per cent today.

無(wú)論原因如何，近年來(lái)，美國(guó)在全球制造業(yè)中的份額急劇下降。根據(jù)《福布斯》6月份的一份報(bào)告，這一數(shù)字從20世紀(jì)80年代初的約25%下降到今天的約10%。

“I believe strategic decoupling should be our obxtive, the long-term obxtive,” Lighthizer said, underscoring a different stance from the present Joe Biden administration’s focus on “de-risking”.

“我相信戰(zhàn)略脫鉤應(yīng)該是我們的目標(biāo)，長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)，”萊特希澤說(shuō)，強(qiáng)調(diào)了與現(xiàn)任喬·拜登政府專注于“去風(fēng)險(xiǎn)化”的不同立場(chǎng)。

Such an approach involves “very careful monitoring” of incoming investment instead of scrapping the bilateral economic relationship entirely, he said. As “every dollar of investment” China sends abroad is done with its interests in mind, he added, the same principle should guide the US.

這種方法涉及對(duì)進(jìn)入投資的“非常仔細(xì)的監(jiān)控”，而不是完全廢除雙邊經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系。他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，由于中國(guó)向國(guó)外派出的“每一美元投資”都是以其利益為導(dǎo)向，美國(guó)也應(yīng)該以同樣的原則為指導(dǎo)。
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However, some economists have argued, any future tariffs under a second Trump term will be imposed with one goal in mind – improved competitiveness in the global marketplace.

然而，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，特朗普第二任期內(nèi)的任何未來(lái)關(guān)稅都將以一個(gè)目標(biāo)為導(dǎo)向——提高全球市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

“Regardless of what Trump claims as the goal, whether it’s protecting workers in the manufacturing sector or decoupling from China,” said Ju Jiandong, an expert on the US-China trade conflict and a professor of finance at Tsinghua University, “the core obxtive is to compete for global market share.”
The larger the scale of a hi-tech industry, the higher the productivity and profit, he said in a webinar on global economy and world order organised by Fudan University on November 11.“These profits then feed back into innovation, creating a positive cycle. This is why the US is determined to compete for a larger market share in the hi-tech sector,” Ju said. “The same logic applies to manufacturing.”

“無(wú)論特朗普聲稱的目標(biāo)是什么，無(wú)論是保護(hù)制造業(yè)工人還是與中國(guó)脫鉤，”清華大學(xué)中美貿(mào)易沖突專家、金融學(xué)教授鞠建東在復(fù)旦大學(xué)11月11日舉辦的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)與世界秩序網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會(huì)上說(shuō)，“特朗普的核心目標(biāo)是爭(zhēng)奪全球市場(chǎng)份額?！?br /> 高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的規(guī)模越大，生產(chǎn)力和利潤(rùn)就越高，他說(shuō)。這些利潤(rùn)然后反饋到創(chuàng)新中，形成一個(gè)積極的循環(huán)。這就是為什么美國(guó)決心在高科技領(lǐng)域爭(zhēng)奪更大市場(chǎng)份額的原因。制造業(yè)也遵循同樣的邏輯。

Most analysts had predicted tariff increases would come into force as early as the second quarter of 2025, a few months after Trump is sworn in on January 20.

大多數(shù)分析師預(yù)測(cè)，關(guān)稅增加最早將在2025年第二季度生效，即特朗普在1月20日宣誓就職后幾個(gè)月。

But in an announcement on his Truth Social platform this week, Trump vowed to implement a tariff of 10 per cent on all Chinese goods via executive order the day of his inauguration – along with blanket taxes of 25 per cent on imports from Canada and Mexico.

但在本周他的Truth Social平臺(tái)上的一項(xiàng)聲明中，特朗普誓言在他就職當(dāng)天通過(guò)行政命令對(duì)所有中國(guó)商品征收10%的關(guān)稅——以及對(duì)加拿大和墨西哥進(jìn)口商品征收25%的統(tǒng)一稅。

This timeline was presaged by Goldman Sachs in its recent China 2025 Outlook report, which said duties on Chinese goods could be implemented soon after the start of Trump’s term. The investment bank expected the burden of new taxes to fall mostly on intermediate and capital goods and result in a 20 percentage point increase for the effective tariff rate.

這個(gè)時(shí)間表在高盛最近的中國(guó)2025年展望報(bào)告中已經(jīng)預(yù)示了，該報(bào)告稱對(duì)中國(guó)商品的關(guān)稅可能在特朗普任期開(kāi)始后不久實(shí)施。投資銀行預(yù)計(jì)新稅的負(fù)擔(dān)主要落在中間產(chǎn)品和資本貨物上，并導(dǎo)致實(shí)際關(guān)稅率上升20個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

Allianz Research had said in a recent note an executive order imposing tariffs could be forthcoming, raising duties to 25 per cent for Chinese imports and 5 per cent for imports from the rest of the world. The researchers had projected Trump would exclude Canada, Mexico and goods deemed critical.

安聯(lián)研究在最近的一份報(bào)告中表示，可能會(huì)出臺(tái)一項(xiàng)行政命令，征收關(guān)稅，將中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品的關(guān)稅提高到25%，其他國(guó)家的進(jìn)口商品提高到5%。研究人員預(yù)計(jì)，特朗普將排除加拿大、墨西哥和被認(rèn)為關(guān)鍵的商品。

When commenting on the feasibility of sweeping tariffs, Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said the 60 per cent figure may be the “start” of negotiation.

在評(píng)論全面關(guān)稅的可行性時(shí)，新加坡國(guó)立大學(xué)政治學(xué)副教授鐘雅安表示，60%的數(shù)字可能是談判的“起點(diǎn)”。

“But Trump’s point has been to show that he is tough on China, because he blames it for America’s woes,” he said.

“但特朗普的觀點(diǎn)是表明他對(duì)中國(guó)強(qiáng)硬，因?yàn)樗麑⒚绹?guó)的困境歸咎于中國(guó)，”他說(shuō)。

Since the first US tariffs were announced, China has retained a relatively stable proportion of world trade. According to figures from the International Monetary Fund, China’s share held steady at 9 to 10 per cent between 2017 and 2019. That rose to 10.31 per cent in 2020, with the trade conflict reaching a turning point after the signing of a phase-one trade deal.

自宣布首批美國(guó)關(guān)稅以來(lái)，中國(guó)在世界貿(mào)易中的比例保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù)，2017年至2019年間，中國(guó)的份額穩(wěn)定在9%至10%之間。2020年，這一比例上升到10.31%，貿(mào)易沖突在簽署第一階段貿(mào)易協(xié)議后達(dá)到轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。

China’s position appears to be unchanged even with no reduction in tariffs from the US. Compared to 2018, the average tariff on Chinese goods exported to the United States has gone from 3.8 per cent to over 19.3 per cent, SPDB International said in a research note earlier this month.

即使美國(guó)的關(guān)稅沒(méi)有減少，中國(guó)的地位似乎也沒(méi)有改變。根據(jù)浦發(fā)國(guó)際本月早些時(shí)候的一份研究報(bào)告，與2018年相比，中國(guó)出口到美國(guó)的商品的平均關(guān)稅從3.8%上升到超過(guò)19.3%。

However, the reindustrialization advocated by Trump – and Biden after him – has been somewhat effective in bringing back elements of American manufacturing.

然而，特朗普和拜登之后倡導(dǎo)的再工業(yè)化在一定程度上成功地帶回了美國(guó)制造業(yè)的元素。

“Starting in 2022, the manufacturing industry has shown a trend of returning to the US, and some large companies are willing to invest,” said Ju of Tsinghua, quoting a Kearney report.

“從2022年開(kāi)始，制造業(yè)顯示出回歸美國(guó)的趨勢(shì)，一些大公司愿意投資，”清華大學(xué)的鞠建東引用科爾尼的一份報(bào)告說(shuō)。

“However, whether an efficient manufacturing industry can be formed remains in doubt.”

“然而，是否能形成一個(gè)有效的制造業(yè)仍然存疑。”

Per data provided by Medius, 69 per cent of surveyed US manufacturers had begun reshoring their supply chains, with 94 per cent of that group reporting success in doing so.

根據(jù)Medius提供的數(shù)據(jù)，69%的受訪美國(guó)制造商已經(jīng)開(kāi)始將供應(yīng)鏈回遷，其中94%的公司報(bào)告成功回遷。
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Apple, for example, said its suppliers had invested more than US$16 billion over the past five years to relocate their China production to several other countries, including the US.

例如，蘋(píng)果公司表示，其供應(yīng)商在過(guò)去五年中投資超過(guò)160億美元，將其中國(guó)生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到包括美國(guó)在內(nèi)的其他幾個(gè)國(guó)家。
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But Trump’s proposed tariffs may bring different results this time.

但特朗普提出的關(guān)稅這次可能會(huì)帶來(lái)不同的結(jié)果。

A blanket tariff would mean the inclusion of Southeast Asia and Latin America – the two regions that have benefited most from recent reshoring and nearshoring efforts – to ensure all possible investment returns to the US.

全面的關(guān)稅將意味著包括東南亞和拉丁美洲——這兩個(gè)地區(qū)是最近回遷和近岸外包努力中受益最多的地區(qū)——以確保所有可能的投資回到美國(guó)。
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China’s trade resilience during the trade war’s first salvoes can be attributed to its re-routing of supply lines through countries like Vietnam and Mexico before exporting to the US, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.

中國(guó)在貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)初期的貿(mào)易韌性可歸因于其通過(guò)越南和墨西哥等國(guó)家重新路由供應(yīng)鏈，然后出口到美國(guó)，麥格理集團(tuán)首席中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家胡偉俊說(shuō)。

According to David Seif, Nomura’s chief economist for developed markets, tariffs under Trump’s next term will be broader than his first, where import taxes were specific to countries or products.

根據(jù)野村證券發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大衛(wèi)·賽夫的說(shuō)法，特朗普下一個(gè)任期內(nèi)的關(guān)稅將比他的第一個(gè)任期范圍更廣，當(dāng)時(shí)的進(jìn)口稅具體針對(duì)國(guó)家或產(chǎn)品。

The tariffs that Trump has proposed for China and the rest of the world during his second term would have “the biggest effect on prices” in the US, Seif said, echoing concerns from other economists the duties would drive up inflation.

特朗普在第二任期內(nèi)為中國(guó)和世界其他國(guó)家提議的關(guān)稅將對(duì)美國(guó)的“價(jià)格產(chǎn)生最大影響”，賽夫說(shuō)，他與其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的擔(dān)憂相呼應(yīng)，即關(guān)稅將推高通脹。

But Lighthizer insisted in his talk at ISI the notion that tariffs are inflationary is wrong.

但萊特希澤在ISI的演講中堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為關(guān)稅具有通脹性這一觀點(diǎn)是錯(cuò)誤的。

“They are a production increasing tool,” he said. “If you increase production you’re going to end up having an anti-inflationary effect, not a pro-inflationary effect.”

“它們是一種增加生產(chǎn)的工具，”他說(shuō)。“如果你增加生產(chǎn)，你最終會(huì)產(chǎn)生一種反通脹效應(yīng)，而不是通脹效應(yīng)?！?/b>
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk, one of Trump’s most high-profile supporters and donors from the business world, said the US should “be careful with tariffs” in an interview made public on the eve of Trump’s victory.

特斯拉首席執(zhí)行官埃隆·馬斯克，特朗普商業(yè)界最知名的支持者和捐助者之一，在特朗普勝選前夕的一次采訪中說(shuō)，美國(guó)應(yīng)該“小心關(guān)稅”。
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“I think we want to be thoughtful about tariffs and give companies a ramp … I do generally agree that America should do more manufacturing,” he said in a podcast hosted by American comedian Joe Rogan.

“我認(rèn)為我們要對(duì)關(guān)稅深思熟慮，并為公司提供一個(gè)過(guò)渡期……我總體上同意美國(guó)應(yīng)該做更多的制造業(yè)，”他在美國(guó)喜劇演員喬·羅根主持的播客中說(shuō)道。

After Trump’s election, Musk has been appointed to co-chair a new “department of government efficiency” tasked with cutting administrative waste.

在特朗普當(dāng)選后，馬斯克被任命為新成立的“政府效率部”聯(lián)席主任，負(fù)責(zé)削減行政浪費(fèi)。

While urging tariffs to be “predictable” so companies can make changes to their operations accordingly, he also pointed out that it was impossible for the US to make everything on its own.

在敦促關(guān)稅“可預(yù)測(cè)”，以便公司能夠相應(yīng)地改變其運(yùn)營(yíng)的同時(shí)，他還指出，美國(guó)不可能獨(dú)自制造所有東西。

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