You shall not pass: Here’s how the US and China might be trying to kneecap an Indian giant in Africa

RT原標(biāo)題：You shall not pass（《指環(huán)王》臺(tái)詞，意味：你不能通過(guò)）: 美國(guó)和中國(guó)可能正試圖在非洲削弱一個(gè)印度巨頭
作者：薩米爾·巴塔查里亞，印度新德里觀察家研究基金會(huì)副研究員。

Kenya has cancelled major deals with Adani Group after American prosecutors accused it of bribery in India

在美國(guó)檢察官指控阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)在印度行賄后，肯尼亞取消了與該集團(tuán)的重大交易

Valued at over $150 billion, Adani Group is a giant Indian conglomerate that dominates India’s private sector. Over the years, it has steadily expanded its network across Asia and Africa.

阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)估值超過(guò) 1500 億美元，是印度一家龐大的綜合企業(yè)，主導(dǎo)著印度的私營(yíng)部門。多年來(lái)，它穩(wěn)步擴(kuò)大了其在亞洲和非洲的網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

However, its Africa expansion was dealt a major blow in late November when Kenyan President William Ruto canceled its contracts worth round $2.5 billion with Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Limited (KETRACO) and Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA).

然而，該集團(tuán)在非洲的擴(kuò)張?jiān)?11 月底遭受重大打擊，肯尼亞總統(tǒng)威廉·魯托取消了與其簽訂的約 25 億美元合同，合同對(duì)象為肯尼亞電力傳輸公司 (KETRACO)和喬莫·肯雅塔國(guó)際機(jī)場(chǎng)。
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The move followed the US indictment of Adani Group’s chairman and founder, Gautam Adani, India’s second richest man, along with other top managers, over alleged bribery committed in India. The group denied the allegations.

這一舉措是美國(guó)指控阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)董事長(zhǎng)兼創(chuàng)始人、印度第二富豪高塔姆·阿達(dá)尼以及其他高級(jí)管理人員在印度涉嫌行賄后出現(xiàn)的。該集團(tuán)否認(rèn)了這些指控。

The proposed $736 million deal with KETRACO was a 30-year public-private partnership agreement, where Adani Group was set to build three high-voltage power transmission lines. Additionally, it was expected to finance two power station projects in Kisumu and Kajiado counties. The reason behind the cancellation is a petition from the Law Society of Kenya. As the civil society group raised concerns about the lack of public participation and the adherence to constitutional standards, Kenya’s High Court ruled in its favor, suspending the implementation of the project agreement.

擬議中的 7.36 億美元與 KETRACO 的交易是一項(xiàng)為期 30 年的公私合作伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)議，阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)計(jì)劃建設(shè)三條高壓輸電線路。此外，它還預(yù)計(jì)將為基蘇木和卡賈多縣的兩個(gè)電站項(xiàng)目提供資金。取消的原因是肯尼亞律師協(xié)會(huì)的請(qǐng)?jiān)笗?shū)。由于公民社會(huì)團(tuán)體對(duì)公眾參與不足和遵守憲法標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的擔(dān)憂，肯尼亞高等法院支持了其訴求，暫停了項(xiàng)目協(xié)議的實(shí)施。

Similarly, Adani Group also faced challenges with its agreement with JKIA in Nairobi. This $1.85 billion plan deal involved expanding the existing airport by constructing a new passenger terminal and a second runway, with funding sourced through debt and equity.

同樣，阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)在與內(nèi)羅畢的 JKIA 協(xié)議中也面臨挑戰(zhàn)。這筆 18.5 億美元的計(jì)劃交易涉及通過(guò)債務(wù)和股權(quán)籌集資金，擴(kuò)建現(xiàn)有機(jī)場(chǎng)，建設(shè)新的客運(yùn)大樓和第二條跑道。

In return for its investment, Adani Group was set to operate the airport for 30 years before handing it over to the Kenyan government. However, allegations arose over some specific clauses in the agreement, including revised terms for current staff and revenue collection, raising concerns about potential job losses and reduced competitiveness for the airport.

原本作為回報(bào)，阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)計(jì)劃運(yùn)營(yíng)該機(jī)場(chǎng) 30 年，然后將機(jī)場(chǎng)移交給肯尼亞政府。然而，關(guān)于協(xié)議中一些具體條款的指控出現(xiàn)了，包括對(duì)現(xiàn)有員工條款和收入收集的修訂，引發(fā)了關(guān)于潛在失業(yè)和機(jī)場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力下降的擔(dān)憂。

Further, the leasing plan faced strong opposition from both political and private-sector groups, culminating in a protest that became famous as #OccupyJKIA. As the protestors accused the government of lacking transparency in the negotiations, eventually, the government had to release all the details. However, the airport workers remained steadfast, threatening to stage a “mother of all strikes” that would disrupt airport operations across Kenya. Ultimately, the government yielded to the pressure and cancelled the deal. Adani Group was also expected to invest in Kenya’s hospitality and real estate sectors. Now, these prospects are in question.

此外，租賃計(jì)劃遭到了政治和私營(yíng)部門團(tuán)體的強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)，最終演變成了一場(chǎng)著名的#占領(lǐng) JKIA 抗議活動(dòng)。隨著抗議者指責(zé)政府在談判中缺乏透明度，最終政府不得不公布所有細(xì)節(jié)。然而，機(jī)場(chǎng)工作人員仍然堅(jiān)定不移，威脅要進(jìn)行一場(chǎng)“史上最大罷工”，這將擾亂整個(gè)肯尼亞的機(jī)場(chǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)。最終，政府屈服于壓力，取消了交易。阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)也預(yù)計(jì)將在肯尼亞的酒店和房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行投資?，F(xiàn)在，這些前景都成了問(wèn)題。

While this presidential announcement surprised many, Ruto explained that the decision was prompted by allegations of Adani Group’s involvement in a multibillion-dollar bribery and fraud scheme in the US.

盡管這項(xiàng)總統(tǒng)公告讓許多人感到驚訝，魯托解釋說(shuō)，這一決定是由阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)在美國(guó)涉嫌數(shù)十億美元賄賂和欺詐計(jì)劃的指控所促成的。

Washington's hand?

華盛頓的手？

KETRACO, the state-owned company, manages high-voltage power lines in Kenya. It is in dire need of an expansion to its transmission networks. Yet, this would require substantial national budget financing and would thus be impossible without external investment.

KETRACO，這家國(guó)有企業(yè)，管理著肯尼亞的高壓輸電線路。它迫切需要擴(kuò)大其輸電網(wǎng)絡(luò)。然而，這需要大量的國(guó)家預(yù)算資金，因此沒(méi)有外部投資將無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)。

The Nairobi airport was built in 1978 to handle only 2 million passengers annually. Previous attempts to upgrade it failed miserably due to funding gaps and corruption, and the airport now lies in a completely deteriorating and overcrowded state.

內(nèi)羅畢機(jī)場(chǎng)建于 1978 年，每年僅能處理 200 萬(wàn)乘客。由于資金缺口和腐敗，之前的升級(jí)嘗試均以失敗告終，現(xiàn)在機(jī)場(chǎng)處于完全惡化且擁擠的狀態(tài)。

From the outset, Ruto has been relying on public-private partnerships to ease the burden on Kenya’s already strained finances, especially amid heavy debt repayment obligations. Thus, Adani’s exit from Kenya would also put him in dire straits and make his tasks difficult. He has been under significant pressure to deliver these mega infrastructure projects and now will have to find alternative funding sources.

從一開(kāi)始，魯托就依靠公私合營(yíng)來(lái)減輕肯尼亞本已緊張的財(cái)政負(fù)擔(dān)，尤其是在沉重的債務(wù)償還義務(wù)之下。因此，阿達(dá)尼退出肯尼亞也將使他陷入困境，使他的任務(wù)變得困難。他一直承受著巨大的壓力來(lái)交付這些大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目，現(xiàn)在將不得不尋找替代資金來(lái)源。

To make matters worse, since June, thousands of predominantly Gen Z protestors have flooded the streets to demonstrate against the controversial 2024 Finance Bill, with some labelling the movement a sub-Saharan “African Spring.” This setback could seriously jeopardize Ruto's presidency if he doesn’t quickly secure alternative funding sources.

情況變得更糟，自 6 月以來(lái)，成千上萬(wàn)的以 Z 世代為主的抗議者涌上街頭，抗議有爭(zhēng)議的 2024 年財(cái)政法案，有些人將這場(chǎng)運(yùn)動(dòng)稱為撒哈拉以南的“非洲之春”。如果魯托不能迅速找到替代資金來(lái)源，這次挫折可能會(huì)嚴(yán)重危及他的總統(tǒng)職位。

Meanwhile, in September, Ruto met with *** in China at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. During the summit, he was promised increased Chinese support in accessing concessional funding for development. This financial assistance, when realized, may help Ruto achieve his modernization goals for Kenya. While a Chinese campaign against the Indian conglomerate seems unlikely at this stage, it cannot be entirely ruled out.

與此同時(shí)，在九月，魯托在中國(guó)舉行的“中非合作論壇”上會(huì)見(jiàn)了中國(guó)高層。在峰會(huì)期間，他被承諾將增加中國(guó)對(duì)獲取優(yōu)惠發(fā)展資金的援助。這種財(cái)政援助一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)，可能有助于魯托實(shí)現(xiàn)肯尼亞的現(xiàn)代化目標(biāo)。盡管目前看來(lái)中國(guó)針對(duì)印度財(cái)團(tuán)的運(yùn)動(dòng)似乎不太可能，但也不能完全排除。

The US has also been working to strengthen its ties with Kenya. In May 2024, Ruto visited the US, where his government was praised for upholding democracy and filling the leadership vacuum in the region. Kenya is among the largest beneficiaries of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

美國(guó)也在努力加強(qiáng)與肯尼亞的聯(lián)系。2024 年 5 月，魯托訪問(wèn)了美國(guó)，他的政府因維護(hù)民主和填補(bǔ)該地區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)真空而受到贊揚(yáng)。肯尼亞是非洲增長(zhǎng)和機(jī)會(huì)法案（AGOA）的最大受益者之一。
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Beyond economic diplomacy, Kenya also holds strategic importance for the US due to its role in leading multinational peacekeeping missions in Haiti and as a potential ally in addressing regional crises. Ruto’s Kenya represents a crucial ally for Washington, particularly when its influence wanes across the continent. Thus, a potential US role in the cancellations of the deal with Adani should be thoroughly investigated.

在經(jīng)濟(jì)外交之外，肯尼亞由于其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)多國(guó)維和行動(dòng)在海地以及作為解決地區(qū)危機(jī)的潛在盟友的角色，對(duì)美國(guó)也具有戰(zhàn)略重要性。魯托領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的肯尼亞對(duì)華盛頓來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵盟友，尤其是在其影響力在非洲大陸減弱時(shí)。因此，應(yīng)徹底調(diào)查美國(guó)在取消與阿達(dá)尼交易中的潛在作用。

Spillover

溢出

While the legal process will continue to unfold and the facts will eventually emerge, the Kenyan setback could have significant repercussions for Adani Group’s Africa expansion plans.

隨著法律程序?qū)⒗^續(xù)展開(kāi)，事實(shí)最終將浮出水面，但肯尼亞的挫折可能對(duì)阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)在非洲的擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃產(chǎn)生重大影響。

In the African region Adani Group nurtures a long-term vision. In June 2024, the logistics infrastructure arm of the conglomerate, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, acquired a container terminal in Dar es Salaam, a major city and commercial port on Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast, as part of a joint venture with Abu Dhabi Ports. The group is positioning the port as a crucial trade hub for East Africa. Adani has also expressed interest in investing $900 million in Tanzania’s power transmission network through public-private partnerships.

阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)在非洲地區(qū)培養(yǎng)長(zhǎng)期愿景。2024 年 6 月，該集團(tuán)物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施部門阿達(dá)尼港口和特殊經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)收購(gòu)了坦桑尼亞印度洋海岸主要城市和商業(yè)港口達(dá)累斯薩拉姆的一個(gè)集裝箱碼頭，作為與阿布扎比港口的合資企業(yè)的一部分。該集團(tuán)正將港口定位為東非的關(guān)鍵貿(mào)易樞紐。阿達(dá)尼還表示有興趣通過(guò)公私合營(yíng)投資 9 億美元于坦桑尼亞的電力傳輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
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The conglomerate also plans to develop wind and solar power projects in Morocco to produce green hydrogen, particularly to cater to the European market.

該集團(tuán)還計(jì)劃在摩洛哥開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能項(xiàng)目，以生產(chǎn)綠色氫氣，特別是為了滿足歐洲市場(chǎng)的需求。

Gautam Adani has, however, reaffirmed his commitment to the legal process, vowing to clear the allegations and come back stronger. Given the size of its ambition and investments, Adani Group is not likely to abandon its Africa vision anytime soon. Yet, its next move after it lost the Kenya deals will be closely watched.

雖然如此，高塔姆·阿達(dá)尼重申了他對(duì)法律程序的承諾，誓言澄清這些指控并變得更加強(qiáng)大。鑒于其雄心和投資規(guī)模，阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)不太可能很快放棄其在非洲的愿景。然而，在失去肯尼亞交易后，其下一步行動(dòng)將受到密切關(guān)注。