豐田氫動力汽車夢想破滅 - 車主起訴豐田
Toyota's Hydrogen Car Dream is dead - owners sue Toyota
譯文簡介
Mirai在日語中是“未來”的意思。當豐田公司豪賭氫能是未來汽車的發(fā)展方向時，將其首款氫燃料電池電動汽車命名為豐田Mirai似乎是對這一宏偉目標的最好詮釋。
正文翻譯
Mirai在日語中是“未來”的意思。當豐田公司豪賭氫能是未來汽車的發(fā)展方向時，將其首款氫燃料電池電動汽車命名為豐田Mirai似乎是對這一宏偉目標的最好詮釋。
然而，事與愿違。正如早期用戶發(fā)現(xiàn)的那樣，Mirai并不是許多人希望的理想未來。事實上，基礎設施的崩潰和折舊讓一些車主要求豐田回購，甚至對他們的經(jīng)歷提起訴訟。
如今，他們中的許多人都很憤怒，覺得自己被欺騙了，因為他們覺得自己買了一輛潛力巨大的汽車，但卻沒有得到必要的燃料基礎設施的支持。
然而，事與愿違。正如早期用戶發(fā)現(xiàn)的那樣，Mirai并不是許多人希望的理想未來。事實上，基礎設施的崩潰和折舊讓一些車主要求豐田回購，甚至對他們的經(jīng)歷提起訴訟。
如今，他們中的許多人都很憤怒，覺得自己被欺騙了，因為他們覺得自己買了一輛潛力巨大的汽車，但卻沒有得到必要的燃料基礎設施的支持。
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I have an acquaintance in Toronto (Canada) who owns a used vehicle dealership. He bought a practically new hydrogen car on auction for $12K(CAD) having no clue about hydrogen other than he hit was the future. He drove it for a couple of days and decided to get it refulled. SHOCK! The closest station was in California. He in turn sold it to a Californian for $6K(CAD). Lesson learned.
我在多倫多有個開二手車行的朋友。他在拍賣會上花1.2萬加元買了輛幾乎全新的氫能源汽車。他對氫能源一無所知，就覺得這是未來。開了沒幾天他想加氫。結果懵了！最近的加氫站居然在加利福尼亞。他只好虧本賣給了一個加州人，才賣了6000加元。呵呵，長記性了。
Pure genius
絕對是個天才。
I did an analysis about 12 years ago on hydrogen powered cars. I determined even if hydrogen could be created for free it was still not economical. The cost of storing, transporting and dispensing it made it cost prohibitive compared to electricity.
大概12年前我分析過氫能源汽車。結論是即使氫氣能零成本生產(chǎn)，也完全不劃算。光是儲存、運輸和加注的成本，就比用電貴得多了。
Hi Sam, I’m nearly 60YO, the speculation about hydrogen as a fuel has been running my whole life, along with nuclear fusion energy. Neither has come to anything in 60 years. Both have such fundamental problems that are extremely difficult to solve because they are rooted in the laws of physics. Hydrogen is the smallest element in the universe and is highly reactive, this makes it extremely difficult to contain in a fuel tank, and all the hydrogen on Earth exists in compounds formed with other elements. To use it requires a chemical reaction to release free hydrogen. Unless someone can reinvent the physics of our universe, hydrogen will remain an extremely difficult and expensive fuel source.
嗨，山姆，我快60歲了，關于氫燃料的憧憬貫穿了我的一生，跟核聚變一樣。這60年來，兩個技術都沒啥進展。它們都存在根本性的問題，因為這些問題源于物理定律，極難解決。
氫是宇宙中最小的元素，而且很活潑，這讓它在燃料箱里特別難存儲。地球上的氫都是以化合物形式存在的。要用它就得靠化學反應釋放出游離氫。
除非有人能重寫宇宙物理定律，否則氫永遠都是個極其難搞而且昂貴的燃料來源。
ANYONE who knows anything about logistics, energy, and energy supply knew this was crazy idea .... except at Toyota apparently. They need to fire their chief engineer.
- Producing Hydrogen uses a lot of electricity and is inefficient (so why not just put electricity straight into cars?)
- Using Hydrogen fuel cells basically converts it back to electricity inefficiently (so why not just use electric batteries?)
- Transporting vast quantities of liquid hydrogen daily by road is hugely dangerous and relies on (presumably) millions of diesel-powered trucks.
- Storing Hydrogen is difficult. It's very "leaky" and required the installation of a high-pressure storage facility at every "gas station".
- There's zero option for home charging, so your life involves constant pumping of compressed hydrogen at some cold dirty gas-station.
- Drivers now have to pump highly compressed liquid hydrogen into a big metal tank, right behind their children's" seats (You're scared of EV fires? Wait until you see a Hydrogen fire).
- Who wants to live close to a Hydrogen pumping station? (Because you'll almost certainly have gasoline on site as well ..... Now you just created a bomb site).
It's so impractical at virtually EVERY stage, that it's clearly a non-starter for most applications. Maybe it's OK for big Truck depots, where you can store vast quantities on-site, for your fleet, but to distribute liquid hydrogen to every gas-station in the World is just never going to happen, it can't happen, it isn't happening (don't believe me? go find your local Hydrogen filling point).
- - The sheer beauty of EVs is simplicity. "The best part is no part" and the EV process has very few parts.
In the best case the Sun sends you electricity and you distribute it instantly with cables. It goes directly into EV batteries and turns an electric motor (fundamentally one moving part). You just removed thousands of moving parts and complex engineering logistics from the process.
但凡懂點物流和能源常識的人都知道這主意有多荒唐……看來豐田內(nèi)部是沒這號人。他們該開除總工程師了。
- 制氫耗電又低效（那干嘛不直接用電動車？）
- 氫燃料電池把氫轉化成電也很低效（那還不如直接用電池呢）
- 每天用卡車運輸大量液態(tài)氫太危險了，還得靠（估計）上百萬輛柴油卡車。
- 儲存氫氣很麻煩。它特別容易泄漏，每個加油站都得裝高壓儲存設備。
- 完全不能在家充能，你得老往又冷又臟的加氣站跑。
- 司機得往孩子座椅后面的大金屬罐里充高壓液態(tài)氫（你要是覺得電動車起火嚇人，等著看氫氣著火吧）。
- 誰愿意住在氫氣加注站附近啊？（因為那兒肯定還存著汽油……這不就成炸彈庫了嗎）。
這玩意兒每個環(huán)節(jié)都不實用，根本就是個死胡同。
也許對大型卡車車隊還行，你可以在基地存大量氫氣自用。但想在全球每個加油站都配氫氣？做夢去吧，不可能的，也沒人這么干（不信？你去找找最近的加氫站在哪）。
- 電動車最美的地方就是簡單。零件越少越好，電動車的工作原理很簡單。
理想情況下，陽光產(chǎn)生的電直接通過電纜輸送。電能直接進入電池，驅(qū)動電機（基本上就一個運動部件）。這下省掉了上千個運動部件和復雜的工程物流。
Biggest car company in the world thought it had enough power and money to influence the whole market
全球最大的車企以為有錢有勢就能左右整個市場。
Sounds like the Japanese thinking back in the 80’s. Remember Sony memory stick?
這不就是80年代日本人的思維嗎？還記得索尼記憶棒不？
One thing common about Chinese and Japanese, they both wanna control the market, the winner takes all mindset.
中國人和日本人有個共同點，都想壟斷市場，都有贏家通吃的心態(tài)。
@不死鳥-u4e
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豐田有錢，所以他們不在乎氫能源要五十年才能實用化。豐田集團的基礎研究機構——豐田研究所正在研究“人工光合成”和從“甲酸”中提取氫氣。
I remember being told that Hydrogen cars are the future twenty years ago. This was expected to happen by 2040. But in the meantime the EV revolution happened.
我記得二十年前就有人說氫能源汽車是未來。說到2040年就能實現(xiàn)。結果沒等到氫能源，電動革命先來了。
The 134 buyers of Toyota's hydrogen cars are probably employees or substantial shareholders of the company
買豐田氫能源車的那134個人，八成都是公司員工或大股東。
If Toyota is so believed hydrogen cars they should get their sales in Japan up first than global market.
豐田要是真信氫能源車，應該先在日本本土搞起來，再考慮全球市場。
Hydrogen leaks more easily than any other gas.
氫氣比任何氣體都容易泄漏。
The entire point of an EV to me was freeing myself from the chains of the gas station business model. With gasoline vehicles you must go 100% of the time to oil industry crack dealer. With EVs, I can charge from my solar panels at home, from the grid at home, from hotel slow chargers, or from Superchargers. It’s no contest. I;m free.
對我來說，電動車最棒的就是擺脫了加油站那套。
開汽油車就得百分百依賴石油公司那幫販子。開電動車，我可以用家里的太陽能板充電，用市電充電，用酒店的慢充，或者用超級充電樁。這完全沒得比。我自由了。
Japan betted on hydrogen early
Problem with storing energy as hydrogen is converting hydrogen is very inefficient
日本早早就押注氫能源了
問題是用氫氣儲能效率太低了。
Hydrogen was a good bet, even with the inefficiency, when battery technology was not sufficient to build a BEV with reasonable range for a reasonable price. The problem was continuing to bet on it when battery technology improved. Hydrogen could still be a viable option for large planes and ships, but battery technology can now handle any road transport.
在電池技術還不足以造出續(xù)航合理、價格合理的純電動車時，押注氫能源是個不錯的選擇，即便效率低。
問題是當電池技術進步后還死咬著不放。氫能源可能仍然合大型飛機和輪船，但電池技術現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)能滿足所有陸路交通需求了。
Especially if the point of hydrogen is to make it into electricity, then why not just store it as electricity to begin with and skip a volatile step (hydrogen)
特別是如果氫動力的目的是為了發(fā)電，那為什么不直接用來發(fā)電，跳過這個不穩(wěn)定的環(huán)節(jié)（氫）呢。
Yeah Nah, the ability to EASILY generate your own fuel (often for free) for a normal EV, trumps having to go to somewhere else to get it. Hydrogen won't survive !
得了吧，能輕松自己發(fā)電（而且常常是免費的）供普通電動車用，這點就完勝還得跑去加氫。氫能源撐不下去了！
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They got it majorly wrong. The cost of hydrogen stations are crazy there were very few of them and then you pay a lot more for hydrogen. All of which the EV solves.On top of that EV's are selling massively now and are increasing every month.
豐田這次完全搞錯了。氫氣加氣站的成本太高了，還特別少。而且加氫的費用也貴得要命。這些問題電動車都解決了。更別說現(xiàn)在電動車的銷量在瘋狂增長，每個月都在上漲。
Just What were Toyota up to?
I find it incredible to believe that they actually believed that Hydrogen was a viable technology!
豐田到底在想什么?。?br /> 真是難以置信他們居然會認為氫能源是個可行的技術！
Only the very technically challenged think hydrogen is a viable alternative for cars. Pretty amazing that Toyota management fell into that category. For the money they wasted, they might have been by now a credible competitor to the Chinese for battery technology. As it is, they've blown it completely.
只有那些技術白癡才會覺得氫能源能用在汽車上。真是不可思議，豐田的管理層居然也是這樣的人。
要是把他們浪費的那些錢用在開發(fā)電池技術上，現(xiàn)在說不定都能跟中國企業(yè)掰掰手腕了。結果呢，他們把一切都搞砸了。
Well for one they are trying to delay people from buying EVs until They (Toyota) can come up with their own profitable solution which currently looks like Hybrids. Remember Toyota also claimed in 2013 that their amazing but mysterious dry cell battery tech would be starting production in 2020...
其實他們就是想拖延大家買電動車，好讓豐田自己能先搞出個賺錢的方案，看樣子現(xiàn)在就是搞混動車。
別忘了豐田在2013年還吹噓說他們那個神奇又神秘的固態(tài)電池技術會在2020年開始量產(chǎn)呢……
Meanwhile BYD sell 4 million EV’s in 2024!
比亞迪2024年可是要賣400萬輛電動車的呢！
Byd does not sell 4 million evs lmfao. Half their evs are just a little tykes car with the crumple zone being your face, that number is new energy vehicles which includes hybrids
笑死，比亞迪才不是賣了400萬輛純電動車呢。他們一半的車就是些玩具車，撞上去臉都能當緩沖，那個數(shù)字其實是新能源車，包括了混動車。
But I will never buy a dictators car or a fascist car. So, no BYD, and no Tesla for me. Renault Megane is great.
我可不會買DC者的車，也不會買法西斯的車。所以，比亞迪和特斯拉我都不會買。雷諾梅甘娜就挺好。
No wonder Legacy Auto is dying. They all sell you the absolute minimum for the absolute most money.
難怪傳統(tǒng)車企都快完蛋了。他們就知道賣最差的東西要最貴的價錢。
Energy conversion efficiency of hydrogen cars is around 30% and battery EVs is around 94%.
氫能源汽車的能量轉換效率只有30%，而純電動車能達到94%。
Toyota completly underestimated the potential and speed of technological advancement of ev transportation.
豐田完全低估了電動車技術的潛力和發(fā)展速度。
Toyota will go down as the Kodak of the auto industry
豐田會成為汽車界的柯達。
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Can we please stop comparing fuelling at a station to home charging or solar? It is not available for everyone. In my country 86% of people live in flats and mostly is not allowed to install a charger in an apartment building due to many reasons. And charging at a DC charger costs at least 56 eurocents per KW at 100 kw, 68 cents at 150 kw and 87 cents at 300 kw. So charging there is also more expensive than a diesel or a petrol never mind the HEV or PHEV.
能不能別總是拿加油站跟家用充電或太陽能充電比較？不是每個人都能用的上。
在我們國家，86%的人住公寓，而且因為各種原因，大多數(shù)公寓樓都不允許安裝充電樁。
在快充站充電還貴得要命，100千瓦的要每度56歐分，150千瓦的要68歐分，300千瓦的要87歐分。所以在那充電比用柴油或汽油還貴，更別說混動和插混了。
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So many bad decisions by automakers. Germany, Japan, USA. Your recent video about the renewable power coming to a power plant in Texas is a clear sign that battery technology is the future.
這些車企都做了太多錯誤決定。德國、日本、美國都是。你最近那個關于德州發(fā)電廠用可再生能源的視頻明確顯示，電池技術就是未來。
Interestingly enough, China is not really giving up on hydrogen. Not hydrogen for passenger cars but hydrogen freight train, freight trucks, or very high power density demanding transportation. Besides industrial byproducts (blue hydrogen), energy storage, direct sea water hydrogen generation, etc., are still driving the future demand or at least remains to be feasible for future applications. Anyways, no options are given up yet although some markets/applications are not justified.
有意思的是，中國并沒有完全放棄氫能源。不過不是用在私家車上，而是用在氫能源貨運列車、貨車，或者對動力密度要求特別高的運輸工具上。
除了工業(yè)副產(chǎn)品（藍氫）外，能源儲存、直接海水制氫等技術，依然在推動未來需求，或者至少在未來應用中還是可行的。總的來說，雖然某些市場和應用不太合適，但沒有完全放棄。
The problems with containing, using and supply logistics are obvious. Toyotas scientists and engineers are smart. They must have known they had unsolvable problems from the beginning, so why did they continue this hydrogen scheme and waste R&D and customer loyalty? Were they given money and directives from other entities?
儲存、使用和供應鏈方面的問題一目了然。豐田的科學家和工程師都很聰明，他們一開始就肯定知道這些問題無法解決，那為什么還要繼續(xù)搞這個氫能源項目，浪費研發(fā)資金和客戶忠誠度呢？是不是有其他勢力給他們錢和指示？
Being a Toyota owner, I do like their cars, but I do believe that Toyota are behind the curve with BEVs and have dropped the ball with hydrogen powered cars. While there may be a use for hydrogen powered public transport and freight transportation, it seems impractical for the motor car. Hydrogen is expensive to produce, either to the environment, with grey hydrogen, or financially with blue hydrogen. It’s not easy to store, it has to be liquidized in tanks and the infrastructure is simply not there to accommodate it. I live in the UK and I really can’t see a take up of hydrogen stations here.
作為一個豐田車主，我挺喜歡他們的車，但我覺得豐田在純電動車領域確實落后了，在氫能源汽車上也搞砸了。
雖然氫能源可能適合公共交通和貨運，但用在私家車上似乎不太實際。制氫要么對環(huán)境不友好（灰氫），要么成本太高（藍氫）。
而且儲存很麻煩，必須液化后存在罐子里，基礎設施也跟不上。我生活在英國，真看不出這里會普及加氫站。
Toyota was a great company and great brand. Unfortunately only example can compare them with is Nokia. Nokia did not adopt Android and also did not had anything close to IOS. They just read the market wrong and unfortunately were eliminated from market. In cars the process is bit slow but Toyota is on same trajectory. They need a massive course correction or this Japanese ICON may disappear in 5 to 7 years.
豐田曾經(jīng)是個偉大的公司和品牌。不幸的是，唯一能跟它比的就是諾基亞。諾基亞不采用安卓系統(tǒng)，也沒有能跟iOS抗衡的東西。
他們對市場判斷錯誤，最終被淘汰出局。汽車行業(yè)的變革雖然慢一些，但豐田正走在同樣的路上。如果不來個大轉向，這個日本標桿企業(yè)可能5到7年就會消失。
Hydrogen isn’t cheap is it, hydrocarbon Fuel is much cheaper, so why switch? It’s almost unavailable , it’s dangerous to the equipment that has to store and transfer it and the time between critical services is also going to be short … it’s a super hazard and not a long term solution to the clean transportation problems … they think smarter engineering with new alloys will solve many of the problems but they risk the most catastrophic of accidents … that’s my greatest fear with hydrogen vehicles …
氫氣根本不便宜，碳氫燃料便宜多了，那干嘛要轉換？
而且?guī)缀鯖]買不到，對儲存和運輸設備來說很危險，關鍵維護間隔還得很短。
這簡直就是個超級隱患，根本不是解決清潔交通問題的長期方案。
他們以為用新合金，更智能的工程設計，就能解決很多問題，但這樣反而可能引發(fā)最嚴重的事故……這就是我最擔心氫能源車的地方。
Hydrogen can only deliver a certain amount of energy. That is fixed. On the other hand, battery capacity is improving in leaps and bounds.
氫能源能提供的能量是有限的，這是確定的。而電池容量卻在突飛猛進地提升。
I used to think hydrogen was the way forward. I realized several years ago the basic fact that converting whatever to hydrogen means an efficiency loss, transporting it or filling a tank involves pumps and energy for storage which is an additional loss, and having to hold it at high pressures and low temps in a car is a further loss, and hydrogen will always slowly leak, as opposed to batteries which involve much less loss of efficiency. The only issues now are weight and charging speed, and both of those are being solved pretty quickly.
我以前覺得氫能是未來的方向。幾年前我認識到一個基本事實：把其他能源轉化成氫氣必然會損失效率。
運輸或加注過程中需要用泵和儲存能源，這又會帶來額外損耗。在車里還得高壓低溫儲存，這更是一種損耗。
而且氫氣總是會慢慢泄漏。相比之下，電池的效率損失要小得多?，F(xiàn)在唯一的問題就是重量和充電速度，這兩個問題都在快速解決。
Another Kodak moment, Blockbuster moment, Nokia moment, Xerox Alto moment, etc.
又一個柯達時刻，百視達時刻，諾基亞時刻，施樂時刻，等等。
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Unbelievably, Toyota is still advertising its hydrogen powered cars in the UK…..perhaps no one has told them that all the hydrogen filling stations have been closed?
簡直不可思議，豐田還在英國做氫能源汽車的廣告……難道沒人告訴他們所有加氫站都關門了嗎？
Sucks and limited
又貴又受限
when their domestic market not selling any, what makes foreign markets want to fall for it?
連他們國內(nèi)市場都賣不動，憑什么指望國外市場會上當？
Toyota believes that electric vehicles will not be accepted by people so quickly, and there is still time to wait for breakthroughs in the development of hydrogen-powered vehicles. Toyota did not expect that electric vehicles would advance faster than expected.
豐田認為電動汽車不會這么快被人們接受，覺得還有時間等氫能源汽車取得突破。豐田沒想到電動汽車的發(fā)展速度超出預期。
Toyota wants others to complete the most difficult tasks of hydrogen extraction, storage, transportation, etc., and sells its own hydrogen powered vehicles, but neither the US & China has the willingness to invest for Japan.
豐田想讓別人完成氫氣提取、儲存、運輸?shù)茸钇D難的任務，自己只管賣氫能源汽車，但是美國和中國都不愿意為日本投資。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉載請注明出處
Toyota's attitude toward hydrogen reflects a general Japanese mentality of preserving "the old ways". Hydrogen and fuel cells were in development in the 1970s (and even earlier) and long have been touted as a solution to dirty fossil fuel. The battery revolution has outflanked them, though, and Japan is still trying to turn on a dime and get with the program.
豐田對氫能源的態(tài)度反映了日本人固守舊制的普遍心態(tài)。氫氣和燃料電池從1970年代（甚至更早）就開始研發(fā)，一直被吹捧是解決化石燃料污染的方案。但電池革命已經(jīng)讓他們措手不及，日本現(xiàn)在還在死命轉向想跟上潮流。
The Japanese are smart people but the hydrogen car is the biggest stupidity - I can't explain what's on the minds of the Toyota engineers ?????
日本人很聰明，但氫能源汽車簡直蠢到家了 - 我真搞不懂豐田工程師腦子里在想什么？？？
Shell has closed 6 out of 7 of its passenger car hydrogen refueling stations in California in 2024.
2024年，殼牌在加州的7個乘用車加氫站已經(jīng)關閉了6個。
I do believe that hydrogen will be a big game changer for trains, plane and boats... but unless you are having a distribution system, it will never take off.
我確實相信氫能會給火車、飛機和輪船帶來重大變革……但是除非你有完整的配套系統(tǒng)，否則它永遠不可能真正起飛。