歷史上所有主要文明最終都衰落，并催生了新的文明。那么，美國最終衰落的原因會(huì)是什么？
All major civilizations in history have eventually fallen and given rise to new ones. What will be the reason the US falls eventually?
譯文簡介
網(wǎng)友：當(dāng)然，對(duì)于那些曾經(jīng)生活在強(qiáng)大國家的人來說，生活并不一定會(huì)因?yàn)閲业乃ヂ涠┤欢梗ūM管顯然它讓葡萄牙人變得憂郁，開始創(chuàng)作美麗而悲傷的音樂，但我懷疑他們一直有這種憂郁的傾向），所以衰落可能不會(huì)立即被察覺。也許它已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。
正文翻譯
All major civilizations in history have eventually fallen and given rise to new ones. What will be the reason the US falls eventually?
歷史上所有主要文明最終都衰落，并催生了新的文明。那么，美國最終衰落的原因會(huì)是什么？
歷史上所有主要文明最終都衰落，并催生了新的文明。那么，美國最終衰落的原因會(huì)是什么？
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Corruption.
Of course, life doesn’t necessarily comes to a screeching halt for the people who had been living in a great power (though apparently it cause the Portuguese to grow morose and start making beautifully sad music, but I suspect there was a morose streak all along), so the fall might not even be noticed for a while. Perhaps it already happened.
腐敗。
當(dāng)然，對(duì)于那些曾經(jīng)生活在強(qiáng)大國家的人來說，生活并不一定會(huì)因?yàn)閲业乃ヂ涠┤欢梗ūM管顯然它讓葡萄牙人變得憂郁，開始創(chuàng)作美麗而悲傷的音樂，但我懷疑他們一直有這種憂郁的傾向），所以衰落可能不會(huì)立即被察覺。也許它已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。
The coming dark ages because of what happened to Ann and I will destroy every country in the world. They tried to keep Germany and maybe japan functioning but even that they couldn’t do. What gives Ann and I that kind of power? We were put together by GOD and then destroyed and GOD obviously isn’t too happy about it.
即將到來的黑暗時(shí)代，因?yàn)榘才c我之間發(fā)生的事，將摧毀世界上所有的國家。他們曾試圖讓德國和可能的日本繼續(xù)運(yùn)作，但即使如此，他們也做不到。是什么賦予了安與我這種力量？我們是由上帝安排在一起的，然后被摧毀，而上帝顯然對(duì)此不太滿意。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
The fascists who are about to re-enter the White House on the 20th of January. They’ve been systematically dismantling our democratic institutions, processes and our nation of laws. That process will continue, accelerated, after the 20th. Say goodbye to democracy, OP.
History is replete with examples that prove that NO fascist government ends well. This incoming US government will prove that rule and all of us will suffer for it.
即將重新進(jìn)入白宮的法西斯分子。從1月20日起，他們將繼續(xù)系統(tǒng)性地拆解我們的民主制度、程序以及法治國家。這個(gè)過程將繼續(xù)加速。告別民主吧，原帖作者。歷史上有許多例子證明，任何法西斯政府都沒有好的結(jié)局。即將上臺(tái)的美國政府將證明這一點(diǎn)，而我們所有人都將因此受苦。
Well right now at the end of 2024, the USA is heading in a political direction that resembles a cliff edge all prepared for your free fall from grace.Your new oligarchical politics fronted by an idiot is the best way to create a dictatorship to rival Mussolini, and Stalin.
好吧，現(xiàn)在在2024年底，美國正朝著一個(gè)像懸崖邊緣一樣的政治方向前進(jìn)，為你的自由落體準(zhǔn)備好。由一個(gè)傻瓜領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的新寡頭政治，是創(chuàng)造一個(gè)與穆索里尼和斯大林相媲美的DC政權(quán)的最佳途徑。
Oh,I don't think it will fall because of one man. Empires don't do that. They go through a period of decline and revival several times before they fall apart.
哦，我不認(rèn)為它會(huì)因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)人而崩潰。帝國不會(huì)那樣倒塌。它們會(huì)經(jīng)歷一段衰退與復(fù)興的時(shí)期，然后才會(huì)徹底崩潰。
我預(yù)期美國最終可能會(huì)分裂成一些經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)的州聯(lián)盟。例如，在一系列自然災(zāi)害之后，像一次巨大的火山爆發(fā)或全球變暖加速導(dǎo)致東南部的洪水，可能會(huì)讓這些州無法繼續(xù)存在。幸存下來的人們可能不受其他正在努力維持自身生存的州的歡迎。與此同時(shí)，努力應(yīng)對(duì)這一切的國家政府可能會(huì)很難保護(hù)像夏威夷、阿拉斯加這樣遠(yuǎn)離本土的州，更不用說像關(guān)島或波多黎各這樣的地區(qū)了。
但不，我們會(huì)挺過特朗普的。雖然我并不驚訝，如果不久后我們會(huì)舉行第二次憲法大會(huì)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
I think the very simple answer is - Trump. He is a complete and total failure as a businessman, knows less than nothing about politics and is stunningly ignorant about economics. He is genuinely eager to destroy his own country, for the sake of the almighty dollar. He is an actual criminal and this is what Americans voted in - a second time?! May God have mercy on the souls of all Americans, who are not Millionaires or Billionaires! They are all going to need a lot of “thoughts and prayers”!
我認(rèn)為非常簡單的答案是——特朗普。他作為商人的完全失敗，幾乎對(duì)政治一無所知，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的理解更是無知。他真心想要摧毀自己的國家，只為了那至高無上的美元。他是一個(gè)真正的罪犯，這就是美國人選出來的——第二次嗎？！愿上帝保佑所有不是百萬富翁或億萬富翁的美國人！他們都會(huì)需要很多“祈禱和思念”！
It's gonna be more biblical with you guys for sure..you're shit is all over the last chapters its a wonder you ask.. So basically somehow all the blacks from the US (and the whole world too) will be taken back to Africa.Then..its gonna be some apocalyptic shit going down for the rest of you back there, (any and all disasters can now fit the narrative, your pick..)I'm not that racist just the bearer and bringer of terrible news.. Keep yours eyes peeled for the rap
你們的情況肯定會(huì)更具圣經(jīng)感……你們的事情已經(jīng)完全發(fā)生在最后的章節(jié)里，真不明白你們怎么還能問這樣的問題……基本上，美國的黑人（包括全球的黑人）都會(huì)被送回非洲。然后…剩下的人都會(huì)經(jīng)歷一場末世般的災(zāi)難，（任何災(zāi)難現(xiàn)在都可以符合這個(gè)敘述，隨便你選……）我不是種族主義者，只是帶來可怕消息的人……保持警覺，等待災(zāi)難的到來。
Not, exactly. Today’s western states are democratic. Previously, almost all fallen civilisations were autocracies, to a greater or lesser extent. Autocracies are inherently more likely to fall, as they concentrate power at the top. Democracies treat leaders as replaceable. It’s in their very nature. They’re more of an allegiance to a process than allegiance to a person. It’s harder to destabilise that. When the post, not the person is what’s important, it lends an inherent stability to a system, and a nation is a system. Also, democracies usually have contingencies as to what happens when a person is removed (including killed) in their post. Have you noticed many civil wars in a democracy? This lends stability, and with that comes a national identity built over time. Today’s states are far more stable than the kingdoms and empires of before.
不完全是。今天的西方國家是民主的。以前幾乎所有衰落的文明都是專制政體，或多或少。專制政體本身更容易崩潰，因?yàn)樗褭?quán)力集中在上層。民主政體把領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人視為可替代的。這是民主的本質(zhì)。它們更多的是對(duì)一個(gè)過程的忠誠，而非對(duì)某個(gè)個(gè)人的忠誠。要破壞這種政體更加困難。當(dāng)重要的是職位，而非個(gè)人時(shí)，政體本身更具穩(wěn)定性，國家就是一個(gè)系統(tǒng)。而且，民主政體通常有一些應(yīng)急措施，用于處理領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者被移除（包括被殺）后的情況。你注意到民主國家中很少發(fā)生內(nèi)戰(zhàn)嗎？這就增強(qiáng)了穩(wěn)定性，進(jìn)而帶來了一個(gè)經(jīng)過時(shí)間積淀的國家認(rèn)同。今天的國家比以往的王國和帝國更穩(wěn)定。
Same reason most of the rest have fallen. They become ripe in iniquity. They attract destruction to themselves. It is the law of the Harvest, law of Attraction, Karma, etc. As we feel and follow our conscience, we vibrate at a higher level and attract the good things that vibrate at that level. As we ignore or reject the counsel from God through our conscience, we vibrate slower and attract the evil things that vibrate at that level. Wars, pestilence, pandemics, tsunamis, volcano, earthquakes, etc.
原因和其他國家一樣。它們因罪惡而腐化，吸引了毀滅的命運(yùn)。這就是收獲法則、吸引力法則、業(yè)力法則等等。當(dāng)我們遵循良知并感知它時(shí)，我們的震動(dòng)頻率更高，就能吸引到與之頻率相匹配的好事。當(dāng)我們忽視或拒絕上帝通過良知傳遞的教誨時(shí)，我們的震動(dòng)會(huì)減緩，從而吸引到與之頻率匹配的惡事。戰(zhàn)爭、瘟疫、疫情、海嘯、火山、地震等。
當(dāng)我第一次讀到舊約中的內(nèi)容，提到如果遵守安息日，繳納什一奉獻(xiàn)，生活公正，天氣總是好的時(shí)，我覺得那有些牽強(qiáng)。后來我學(xué)到了更多關(guān)于吸引力法則的知識(shí)，才明白了，正直生活帶來好事，這幾乎是最自然不過的事了。我們忽視上帝通過良知傳遞的教導(dǎo)，就會(huì)吸引到自我毀滅的命運(yùn)。
The same reason as the rest. When the rulers forget the reason for the rise, forget the implicit social contract with the people and think only of their own social enrichment rather that the good of the entity.
原因和其他國家一樣。當(dāng)統(tǒng)治者忘記了國家崛起的原因，忘記了與人民之間的隱性社會(huì)契約，只想著自己的社會(huì)利益而非國家的利益時(shí)，國家就會(huì)走向衰落。
The U.S. will change. One will call it a fall, others a release or rise.
The U.S. will became more and more a pacific Continent. More whites are dying ( naturally) than all others. And more coloured people come to America, legally or illegally.
Surely there are groups that want to build a wall. But will this really work? I don't believe.
I fear I will still see riots and raids, perhaps even civil war, the U.S. has not learned a bit from the first civil war. (I am 64 years old)
美國會(huì)發(fā)生變化。有人稱之為衰落，也有人稱之為釋放或崛起。
美國會(huì)越來越成為一個(gè)太平洋大陸。更多的白人（自然死亡）比其他任何族裔都要多，而越來越多的有色人種來到美國，無論是合法還是非法的。當(dāng)然，有一些團(tuán)體想要建立一堵墻，但這真能奏效嗎？我不相信。
我擔(dān)心我會(huì)親眼看到騷亂和襲擊，甚至是內(nèi)戰(zhàn)。美國沒有從第一次內(nèi)戰(zhàn)中吸取任何教訓(xùn)。我現(xiàn)在64歲。
All major civilizations in history have eventually fallen and given rise to new ones.
The USA is not a “civilisation”, it is just an offshoot of European “civilisation”.
The USA has aspirations of worldwide political and economic domination that can be dated back to 1823 (The doctrine of USA President Monro)e. Until after WW2 its attempt was unsuccessful. The last time the USA won a war it has instigated was 1898 (The USA-Spanish War).
歷史上所有的主要文明最終都會(huì)衰落，并催生出新的文明。美國并不是一個(gè)“文明”，它只是歐洲“文明”的一個(gè)延伸。美國有著全球政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)主導(dǎo)的野心，這種野心可以追溯到1823年（美國總統(tǒng)門羅的教義）。直到二戰(zhàn)后，它的這一嘗試才得以實(shí)現(xiàn)。在1898年（美西戰(zhàn)爭）之前，美國最后一次贏得的是它自己發(fā)起的戰(zhàn)爭。
In 2019, the USA’s Secretary of State, Pompeo, whilst threatening the USA’s military allies declared the USA an empire, and anyone that did not do as the USA wills will feel the repercussions!
在二戰(zhàn)后的大約30年里，歐洲從二戰(zhàn)的破壞中恢復(fù)過來，而美國則擁有全球主導(dǎo)地位。自1980年代（一些人說是1970年代）以來，美國一直在政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)上衰退！
2019年，美國國務(wù)卿蓬佩奧在威脅美國的軍事盟友時(shí)，宣稱美國是一個(gè)帝國，并表示任何不按美國意愿行事的國家將面臨后果！
The USA is the shortest lived empire in modern history
What will be the reason the US falls eventually?
Delusions of exceptionalism! Plus societal inequity, and economic mismanagement.
蓬佩奧得到了應(yīng)得的“中指”！
美國是現(xiàn)代歷史上壽命最短的帝國。
那么，最終導(dǎo)致美國衰落的原因是什么？
美國的“例外主義”幻想！加上社會(huì)不平等和經(jīng)濟(jì)管理不善。
USA has the strongest military, strongest Economy, sizable land territory, major population center. Great infrastructure for law and order. Land of opportunity attracts the brightest human capital. Much of the world investment is directed to USA, stock market, USA debt bonds, dollar as currency reserve. Great geography with hard to reach borders, and peaceful neighbors.
美國擁有最強(qiáng)大的軍隊(duì)、最強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)、廣闊的土地面積、重要的人口中心。法律和秩序的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也很強(qiáng)大。是機(jī)會(huì)之地，吸引著最聰明的人的才智。世界上大部分的投資都流向美國，股票市場、美國國債、美元作為儲(chǔ)備貨幣。地理位置優(yōu)越，邊界難以接近，鄰國和平。
唯一可以預(yù)見的問題是內(nèi)部分裂。進(jìn)步派想從工人階級(jí)和富人那里拿錢，分配給自己和社會(huì)中生產(chǎn)力較低的成員。保守派則想把進(jìn)步派標(biāo)簽化為懶人，認(rèn)為他們想依賴別人過日子，同時(shí)自己卻保持補(bǔ)貼和其他有利政策。
由政府在國外支持的內(nèi)部分裂，加劇了這種情況，政府通過收買極端政治人物，讓他們相信自己代表主流觀點(diǎn)。再加上疫情、經(jīng)濟(jì)困境、種族緊張關(guān)系、千禧一代缺乏經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)展，你就會(huì)看到內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的潛在苗頭。
Internal collapse. Their national debt exceeds their GDP by 133% which is a new record set this year. They have no money to provide sessential services to the population and no money to provide stimulus to manufacturing or jobs
內(nèi)部崩潰。他們的國債超過GDP的133%，這是今年創(chuàng)下的新紀(jì)錄。他們沒有錢提供必要的公共服務(wù)，也沒有錢為制造業(yè)或就業(yè)提供刺激。
Military defeat is never impossible. Environmental cataclysm becomes more and more plausible every day. Depending on what is meant by “the US falls”, it may be more likely that the US incrementally morphs into something unrecognizable today. The plutocratic oligarchy of the US today would have been beyond comprehension in 1783. Even without a sudden transformation, everything you value about the US today may be erased in much less time than in the passing of another 237 years.
軍事失敗從來不是不可能的。環(huán)境災(zāi)難的可能性也在日益增加。根據(jù)“美國衰落”的定義，可能更可能的是美國會(huì)逐步演變成今天無法想象的樣子。今天的美國的寡頭政治會(huì)是1783年時(shí)無法理解的。即使沒有突如其來的變化，你今天在美國所珍視的一切，可能會(huì)在比未來237年更短的時(shí)間內(nèi)被抹去。
US is not a civilization, is only part of it. Even when US will fall from grace, the civilization will continue to exist.
Decline is as usual, combination of internal and external forces. From the inside economic and social stagnation, corrupt government, civil war, you name it. There will be a point that US will no longer be relevant to the rest of the world.
美國不是一個(gè)文明，只是其中的一部分。即使美國從榮光中跌落，這個(gè)文明仍然會(huì)繼續(xù)存在。衰退是正常的，內(nèi)外因素的結(jié)合。從內(nèi)部來看，經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)的停滯、腐敗的政府、內(nèi)戰(zhàn)等都可能發(fā)生。最終，美國可能不再對(duì)世界其他國家具有重要意義。
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This is asking me to speculate on some future event and I am not a seer nor a Nostradamus. We are a great country, true, but I would not call us an empire. Are we ever going to have a downfall? The answer is very probably but who knows when that will take place. It may even be beginning now with the US having installed that orange buffoon, Donald Trump, as it’s president.
這讓我去猜測未來的某個(gè)事件，而我既不是預(yù)言家，也不是諾斯特拉達(dá)穆斯。我們是一個(gè)偉大的國家，這是真的，但我不會(huì)稱我們?yōu)榈蹏?。我們?huì)有衰落的一天嗎？答案是非?？赡?，但誰知道那會(huì)發(fā)生在何時(shí)。現(xiàn)在，可能已經(jīng)開始了，美國選出了那個(gè)橙色的小丑，唐納德·特朗普，作為總統(tǒng)。
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Most empires conquered other people’s lands and had to keep military forces in those lands to get the taxes and putting down revolts. The American settlers did conquer the homelands of hundred of local little nations, but their numbers were so reduced by diseases and their condition, that today less than 1% of the US population is made up of aboriginal “indians”and the likelihood of internal revolts by them appears to be less than negligible.
大多數(shù)帝國征服了其他民族的土地，并且不得不在這些土地上駐扎軍事力量，以便征稅并平息叛亂。美國的移民確實(shí)征服了成百上千的本土小民族的家園，但由于疾病和環(huán)境的影響，這些民族的數(shù)量大大減少，今天美國人口中少于1%是土著“印第安人”，他們發(fā)生內(nèi)部叛亂的可能性幾乎可以忽略不計(jì)。
羅馬帝國開始衰落是因?yàn)榻蛹{了大量的日耳曼部落，直到羅馬軍隊(duì)大部分由日耳曼人和其他外族人組成。羅馬的拉丁人口變得非常稀少。
盡管美國對(duì)世界上許多國家和社會(huì)有經(jīng)濟(jì)和文化的影響，但它并沒有直接控制太多國家。所以將美國與曾經(jīng)的偉大帝國進(jìn)行比較是錯(cuò)誤的，或者說是非常牽強(qiáng)的。最大的威脅是美國非歐洲裔少數(shù)群體的崛起，他們被民主黨及其直接或間接控制的所有機(jī)構(gòu)煽動(dòng)，激起種族和民族之間的不滿，目的是讓少數(shù)族裔選民獲取并保持政治權(quán)力。但民主黨的大多數(shù)高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人并非少數(shù)民族出身。雖然現(xiàn)在少數(shù)，但他們的聲音正日益增強(qiáng)，試圖獲得更多的權(quán)力。
Most great empires end due to decadence. US will end just like all great empires but it’s hard to put a time frx, unless there’s a devastating blow to the economy or an eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano. Han Dynasty lasted 500 years, and the Roman Empires lasted till 1453 in the form of the Byzantine empire. US could carry on for a long period of time until it becomes just another large country, a group of countries or dissolved.
大多數(shù)偉大帝國的衰落是由于腐化。美國最終會(huì)像所有偉大帝國一樣衰落，但很難預(yù)測具體的時(shí)間，除非經(jīng)濟(jì)遭遇毀滅性打擊，或者黃石超級(jí)火山爆發(fā)。漢朝持續(xù)了500年，羅馬帝國直到1453年才以拜占庭帝國的形式滅亡。美國可能會(huì)持續(xù)很長一段時(shí)間，直到它變成另一個(gè)大國、多個(gè)國家或最終解體。
Throughout the history of the world, empires fall for two primary reasons:
Too much debt
Military overstretch (which is often the cause of problem #1 listed above)
Read Paul Kennedy’s “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” for some excellent historical examples.
在人類歷史中，帝國的衰落通常有兩個(gè)主要原因：
過度的債務(wù)
軍事擴(kuò)張過度（這通常是導(dǎo)致第一點(diǎn)問題的原因）
你可以讀一下保羅·肯尼迪的《大國的興衰》，里面有很多關(guān)于歷史上帝國衰落的優(yōu)秀例子。
我寫過兩本書，專門討論幾乎每個(gè)偉大帝國在最終崩潰或逐漸衰退之前都會(huì)經(jīng)歷的歷史模式，你可以在我的個(gè)人簡介中找到書名。
美國目前正處于我所謂的“二次危機(jī)”時(shí)期，這種危機(jī)周期大約每500年發(fā)生一次。上一次這樣的危機(jī)出現(xiàn)在宗教改革時(shí)期，具有諷刺意味的是，它發(fā)生在古騰堡發(fā)明印刷機(jī)之后。這是一個(gè)類似今天互聯(lián)網(wǎng)出現(xiàn)的技術(shù)時(shí)刻。然而，這也預(yù)示著隨之而來的幾十年內(nèi)將會(huì)經(jīng)歷非常動(dòng)蕩的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)期，導(dǎo)致西方的“偉大強(qiáng)國”的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位每隔一百年左右就會(huì)發(fā)生一次轉(zhuǎn)換。
這個(gè)二次危機(jī)時(shí)期似乎是從唐納德·特朗普當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)開始的，通常會(huì)持續(xù)40到55年。當(dāng)歷史上發(fā)生這種情況時(shí)，往往會(huì)考驗(yàn)主導(dǎo)帝國的基礎(chǔ)，有時(shí)這些帝國會(huì)瓦解。
目前美國正處于這樣一個(gè)時(shí)期，未來能否保持世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事強(qiáng)國的地位將取決于這一時(shí)期的發(fā)展。不幸的是，如果當(dāng)前的趨勢繼續(xù)下去，未來看起來并不樂觀。
事實(shí)上，這種趨勢同樣適用于歐洲以及任何與西方結(jié)盟的國家。現(xiàn)在崛起的是東方，尤其是中國，可能會(huì)成為下一個(gè)“偉大強(qiáng)國”。但可能不僅僅是中國，可能是由多個(gè)東方強(qiáng)國組成的聯(lián)盟嶄露頭角?；蛘撸鲗?dǎo)地位可能像歐洲歷史上那樣在各國之間轉(zhuǎn)換。
Whether the US is the leader of that future renaissance or not is the question that will be determined over the next few decades.
然而，當(dāng)這一危機(jī)期過去，世界很可能會(huì)迎來一個(gè)新的文藝復(fù)興時(shí)期，這一時(shí)期將持續(xù)超過一個(gè)世紀(jì)，直到事情再次發(fā)生變化。美國是否能成為未來文藝復(fù)興的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，是未來幾十年將要決定的問題。