既然沒(méi)有任何文明能夠永存，你認(rèn)為美國(guó)還能存在多久，最終加拿大將對(duì)其衰落負(fù)責(zé)？

Himanshu Chaudhary
Possible causes of a societal collapse include natural catastrophe, war, pestilence, famine, economic collapse, population decline or overshoot, mass migration, incompetent leaders, and sabotage by rival civilizations.
According to the study's models, maintaining current rates of population growth and deforestation would mean we have a less than 10 percent chance of avoiding “an irreversible collapse of our civilization” within just a few decades.

社會(huì)崩潰的可能原因包括自然災(zāi)難、戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、瘟疫、饑荒、經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰、人口下降或過(guò)度、人大規(guī)模遷移、無(wú)能的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，以及來(lái)自競(jìng)爭(zhēng)文明的破壞行為。 根據(jù)該研究的模型，如果維持當(dāng)前的人口增長(zhǎng)和森林砍伐速度，未來(lái)幾十年內(nèi)我們避免“我們文明的不可逆崩潰”的機(jī)會(huì)不到10%。

Grant Arthurs
REALLY!? Tell me how you think Canada will be responsible for the downfall of the USA! The USA and Canada are joined at the hip. If there is a downfall of one, it is most likely they both will go. But I highly doubt we will see it in this generation!

真的嗎??？告訴我，為什么你認(rèn)為加拿大會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)的衰退負(fù)責(zé)！美國(guó)和加拿大是休戚與共的。如果一個(gè)國(guó)家崩潰，另一個(gè)很可能也會(huì)隨之崩潰。但我非常懷疑我們這一代人會(huì)看到這種情況！

Ruqquiya Razaki
y America’s rebirth as a parliamentary democracy based off of the Canadian constitution?
Predicting the precise duration of any civilization is speculative, and attributing such a transformation to Canada is even more so. The U.S. has proven resilient, making specific forecasts about its future and potential constitutional shifts highly uncertain.

美國(guó)是否會(huì)像加拿大那樣，重新誕生為基于加拿大憲法的議會(huì)制民主？ 預(yù)測(cè)任何文明的持續(xù)時(shí)間都具有很大的不確定性，尤其是將這種轉(zhuǎn)變歸因于加拿大。美國(guó)已經(jīng)證明了它的韌性，因此對(duì)其未來(lái)及潛在的憲法變化做出具體預(yù)測(cè)是高度不確定的。

Mansha Sharma
Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct in 7,800,000 years, according to J. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversial doomsday argument, which argues that we have probably

根據(jù)J. Richard Gott的爭(zhēng)議性“末日論”模型，人類在780萬(wàn)年內(nèi)有95%的概率會(huì)滅絕。該論點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，我們很可能…

On Demand Reporter
While the United States has demonstrated resilience and adaptability throughout its history, it is not immune to the challenges faced by other civilizations. Factors such as growing inequality, political polarization, and climate change pose significant threats to its long-term viability. As for Canada's role, while it is a stable and prosperous nation, it is unlikely to be solely responsible for the downfall of the United States. The decline of a civilization is typically a multifaceted process involving internal and external factors.

雖然美國(guó)在歷史上展示了韌性和適應(yīng)能力，但它并不免于其他文明所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。日益加劇的不平等、政治兩極化和氣候變化等因素，對(duì)美國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期生存構(gòu)成了重大威脅。至于加拿大的角色，盡管它是一個(gè)穩(wěn)定和繁榮的國(guó)家，但它不太可能單獨(dú)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)的衰退。一個(gè)文明的衰落通常是一個(gè)涉及內(nèi)部和外部因素的多面過(guò)程。

Geoff Stimpson
I don't see a collapse and reinvention of the US anytime soon. I do see a continued decline as Americans grow less and less satisfied by the role of elites (ie the rich and noisy fringe groups) in controlling government policy from both parties.

我不認(rèn)為美國(guó)會(huì)在短期內(nèi)崩潰并重新塑造自己。我確實(shí)看到的是美國(guó)的持續(xù)衰退，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)人越來(lái)越不滿精英階層（即富人和喧鬧的極端群體）在控制兩黨政府政策中的作用。

The end result is likely to be a series of populist dictators (like Putin) posing as freely elected leaders. Democracy is usually fragile and short lived. Athens had democracy for less than a century, and its democracy was no better than US democracy in the 18th century (only white men had a vote within a system designed to protect the wealthy). Much of the US didn't have democracy for all until the 1960s, and places like Canada and Switzerland didn't treat all citizens as equal at election time until the same time or later. If we claim everyone has an equal right to citizenship and every citizen has an equal vote on election day, democracy is a rare thing indeed.

最終的結(jié)果可能是出現(xiàn)一系列民粹主義DC者（像普京一樣），這些人偽裝成自由選舉產(chǎn)生的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。民主通常是脆弱且短暫的。雅典的民主持續(xù)不到一個(gè)世紀(jì)，而且它的民主并不比18世紀(jì)美國(guó)的民主好（只有白人男性有選舉權(quán)，在一個(gè)旨在保護(hù)富人的體制下）。直到1960年代，很多地方的美國(guó)都沒(méi)有實(shí)現(xiàn)全民民主，而像加拿大和瑞士等地方直到那時(shí)或更晚才在選舉時(shí)平等對(duì)待所有公民。如果我們聲稱每個(gè)人都有平等的公民權(quán)利，每個(gè)公民在選舉日都有平等的投票權(quán)，那么民主實(shí)際上是非常罕見(jiàn)的。

I don't see the US turning to a UK/Canadian parliamentary system (it needs a powerless king or queen), but into more of Russian system where the elected president has enough levers to turn the legislative and judicial branches into a rubber stamp while control of the media, association, and the economy is solid enough to eliminate the dissent necessary for real democracy and while rewriting pesky term limits out of the constitution. Oligarchy under a strong leader is unfortunately the default for civilizations, and that is likely where the US is headed in the next few decades.

我不認(rèn)為美國(guó)會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向像英國(guó)/加拿大的議會(huì)制系統(tǒng)（它需要一個(gè)無(wú)權(quán)的國(guó)王或女王），而更可能變成類似俄羅斯的體制——在這種體制下，民選總統(tǒng)擁有足夠的杠桿，將立法和司法部門(mén)變成橡皮圖章，同時(shí)控制媒體、社交和經(jīng)濟(jì)，足以消除真正民主所需的異議，同時(shí)將麻煩的任期限制從憲法中刪去。強(qiáng)力領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的寡頭政治不幸地是文明的默認(rèn)狀態(tài)，我認(rèn)為美國(guó)在未來(lái)幾十年可能會(huì)走向這樣的結(jié)局。

Brenton Harding
The Roman Empire took about five centuries to decline and fall.
For about 80 years the American empire has been in decline despite the belief of many Americans that the U.S. is the greatest country on Earth. Most Americans ignore or deny the decline.

羅馬帝國(guó)經(jīng)歷了大約五個(gè)世紀(jì)的衰退與滅亡。
盡管許多美國(guó)人認(rèn)為美國(guó)是世界上最偉大的國(guó)家，但美國(guó)的衰退已經(jīng)持續(xù)了大約80年。大多數(shù)美國(guó)人忽視或否認(rèn)這種衰退。

An important question is can anything be done to slow or reverse the American decline? The answer is probably ‘no,’ certainly not with the current, widely held belief in American greatness.
Currently, the U.S. is about second-world level, that of a developing country teetering on third-world status. In perhaps another 50 to 75 years the U.S. will reach third-world status.

一個(gè)重要的問(wèn)題是，是否有什么辦法可以減緩或扭轉(zhuǎn)美國(guó)的衰退？答案可能是“沒(méi)有”，特別是當(dāng)下廣泛存在的對(duì)美國(guó)偉大信仰之下，幾乎不可能有所改變。
目前，美國(guó)大約處于二流國(guó)家的水平，類似于一個(gè)處于第三世界狀態(tài)的正在發(fā)展中的國(guó)家?？赡茉龠^(guò)50到75年，美國(guó)將進(jìn)入第三世界狀態(tài)。

America’s decline has nothing whatsoever to do with Canada! Americans will have accomplished this all on their own.
By the way, lest Americans think that Donny Trump is their saviour, he is not. “Make America Great Again” is just the reuse of a Reagan-era election slogan. Trump really thinks America is just fine but that doesn’t get votes.
Even if Trump did see America’s decline, he has absolutely no idea how to change it.

美國(guó)的衰退與加拿大毫無(wú)關(guān)系！美國(guó)人將完全獨(dú)立完成這一切。
順便說(shuō)一下，若美國(guó)人認(rèn)為特朗普是他們的救世主，那就錯(cuò)了。“讓美國(guó)再次偉大”不過(guò)是復(fù)用了里根時(shí)代的選舉口號(hào)。特朗普真以為美國(guó)沒(méi)問(wèn)題，但這并不足以贏得選票。
即使特朗普意識(shí)到美國(guó)的衰退，他也完全沒(méi)有改變這種狀況的辦法。

John Mcewen
It depends what you call civilization, all societies change and cultures change. If you are talking simple comtinuity. The Byzantines lasted 1000 years, the English have not been successfully invaded in 1000 years. THe US is rather isolated from potential adversaries, occupies one of the three opptimal climate niches on the planet, and even with significant climate change will continue to control most of it. Has the resources of half a continent. Its only major threat would be to become isolated from some factor controling the rest of the world or more possible self destruction. Even if Canada continues to grow and even with climate change Canada is never likely to have a greater population than 1/3 that of the US and therefore will never be a threat.

這取決于你如何定義“文明”，所有社會(huì)和文化都會(huì)變化。如果你指的是簡(jiǎn)單的延續(xù)性，那么拜占庭帝國(guó)持續(xù)了1000年，英格蘭在過(guò)去1000年里沒(méi)有成功被入侵。美國(guó)相對(duì)孤立，遠(yuǎn)離潛在的敵人，位于地球上三大最優(yōu)氣候區(qū)之一，即便在氣候變化的影響下，依然會(huì)控制大部分土地。美國(guó)擁有半個(gè)大陸的資源。它唯一的主要威脅可能是變得孤立，失去對(duì)全球某些關(guān)鍵因素的控制，或者更可能的是自我毀滅。即便加拿大繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，氣候變化下，加拿大的總?cè)丝谝灿肋h(yuǎn)不會(huì)超過(guò)美國(guó)的三分之一，因此永遠(yuǎn)不可能成為威脅。

Vinay Sharma
Forecasting the Future — A Hard Thing to Do
Disclaimer: Predicting the scenarios under which civilizational futures unfold is no mean feat, especially given their complex and multi-variate nature of being a confluence political-economic-social-environmental axes. It is no more than speculative to seek a definitive answer.

預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)——這是一件非常難的事
免責(zé)聲明：預(yù)測(cè)文明未來(lái)的發(fā)展情境并非易事，尤其是考慮到它們?cè)谡?、?jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和環(huán)境多個(gè)維度交織的復(fù)雜性。尋求一個(gè)確切的答案本身就是一種推測(cè)。

The Rise and Fall of Empires
Empires come and go, that is a fact of human history. These are commonly expressed as internal divisions, economic instability (in some interpretations unserviceable debt leads to duation of the currency), external threats or cultural changes. No human civilization is eternal — though it's difficult to say exactly when old hands will finally let the reins slip, there are patterns in history.

帝國(guó)的興衰
帝國(guó)來(lái)來(lái)去去，這是人類歷史的事實(shí)。它們通常表現(xiàn)為內(nèi)部的分裂、經(jīng)濟(jì)的不穩(wěn)定（有些解釋認(rèn)為無(wú)法償還的債務(wù)會(huì)導(dǎo)致貨幣貶值）、外部威脅或文化變革。沒(méi)有任何人類文明是永恒的——雖然很難準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)老牌帝國(guó)什么時(shí)候會(huì)最終松手，但歷史中確實(shí)存在一些模式。

US, Australia
The United States and Australia are two young nations that begin with what is for the most part a lock on freedom. But no nation is even close to immune. Climate change, economic injustice, political division or a changing balance of power around the world could all spell problems for their enduring success.

美國(guó)與澳大利亞
美國(guó)和澳大利亞都是年輕的國(guó)家，擁有在很大程度上保障自由的制度。但沒(méi)有任何國(guó)家能夠免于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。氣候變化、經(jīng)濟(jì)不公、政治分裂或全球力量平衡的變化都可能成為影響這兩個(gè)國(guó)家持久成功的挑戰(zhàn)。

The Example of Australia — Is this a Model for the US?
Nice also is the observation that when it comes to policy Australia could be a model for the US. The countries both speak English, they follow a common legal system and Australia has a long democratic history. Nevertheless, it is also worth considering that such measures should be contextualised in the respective history and culture of each nation.

澳大利亞的例子——是否可以成為美國(guó)的榜樣
有一個(gè)值得注意的觀點(diǎn)是，澳大利亞的政策在某些方面可能可以成為美國(guó)的榜樣。兩個(gè)國(guó)家都講英語(yǔ)，遵循相似的法律體系，且澳大利亞擁有悠久的民主歷史。然而，同樣需要考慮的是，這些措施應(yīng)當(dāng)根據(jù)各國(guó)的歷史和文化背景來(lái)加以理解和應(yīng)用。

Conclusion
While no one can predict the exact future of two nations as they evolve and interact globally, there are a few things that some in Australia would do well to note about its ally. It's intriguing to think that Australia might have a part in the future of America, but if so, it is likely approach as such speculation should be taken with caution.

結(jié)論
雖然沒(méi)有人能夠預(yù)測(cè)這兩個(gè)國(guó)家在全球互動(dòng)中發(fā)展的確切未來(lái)，但澳大利亞的某些人應(yīng)該注意到其盟友美國(guó)的情況。考慮到澳大利亞可能在美國(guó)未來(lái)中的角色，這是一個(gè)值得深思的問(wèn)題，但如果真的存在這種可能性，那么這種猜測(cè)應(yīng)當(dāng)謹(jǐn)慎對(duì)待。

Elliott J. Schuchardt
The United States economy is based on a flawed economic model.
That economic model could cause the currency to collapse, dooming the current American government.
At this time, 75% of the United States economy is consumption. If you live in the United States, look around you. What do you see? Shopping malls, chain restaurants, gas stations, highways — from coast to coast. All of these are evidence of the United States business model — consumption of the world’s goods from coast to coast.

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)基于一個(gè)有缺陷的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型
這種經(jīng)濟(jì)模型可能導(dǎo)致貨幣崩潰，從而讓現(xiàn)有的美國(guó)政府陷入困境。
目前，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的75%依賴于消費(fèi)。如果你生活在美國(guó)，看看四周，你會(huì)看到什么？購(gòu)物中心、連鎖餐廳、加油站、高速公路——從東海岸到西海岸，所有這些都是美國(guó)商業(yè)模式的體現(xiàn)——即全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)對(duì)世界商品的消費(fèi)。

How is this possible?
It’s possible because the United States — temporarily — has a monopoly on the sale of oil from the Middle East. Virtually all of that oil is sold only for United States dollars.
Thus, if you are in Vietnam and need oil for your economy, you have to first trade goods to the United States to get dollars. Only then can you purchase oil from the Middle East. This transaction costs the Americans nothing. They simply print the dollars, and get the Vietnamese goods for free.

這是怎么可能的？
這是可能的，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)暫時(shí)在中東石油的銷售上擁有壟斷地位。幾乎所有的石油交易都是以美元進(jìn)行的。
因此，如果你在越南，并且需要石油來(lái)支持你的經(jīng)濟(jì)，你必須先將商品交換成美元，才能購(gòu)買(mǎi)中東的石油。這個(gè)交易美國(guó)不會(huì)花費(fèi)任何成本。美國(guó)只是印刷美元，然后拿到越南的商品，相當(dāng)于“免費(fèi)”得到了這些商品。

If the Middle East oil markets reject the dollar — and price oil in a currency other than dollars — then demand for the dollar will collapse overnight.
How far will the dollar fall? Well, about half of the demand for the dollar is for oil from the Middle East. Thus, the dollar could easily fall 50%.
If the dollar drops 50%, then prices in the United States will double overnight. This includes gasoline. If the dollar drops 80%, then the price of gasoline goes up 500% — or to $16 per gallon.

如果中東石油市場(chǎng)拒絕美元——以其他貨幣定價(jià)石油——那么美元的需求會(huì)在一夜之間崩潰。
美元會(huì)貶值多少？大約有一半的美元需求是來(lái)自中東石油。因此，美元可能會(huì)輕易貶值50%。
如果美元貶值50%，那么美國(guó)的物價(jià)將會(huì)在一夜之間翻倍。包括汽油。如果美元貶值80%，那么汽油價(jià)格將上漲500%——即每加侖16美元。

See where I am going with this?
If the dollar collapses, the U.S. economy collapses with it. The United States will no longer have the ability to import or consume the world’s goods. Thus, an economic model that is 75% consumption will fail. Poof. 75% of the U.S. economy disappears. All of those shopping malls that you see from coast to coast will be looted.

明白我的意思了嗎？
如果美元崩潰，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也將隨之崩潰。美國(guó)將失去進(jìn)口和消費(fèi)全球商品的能力。因此，一個(gè)75%依賴消費(fèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型將會(huì)失敗。轟然倒塌。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的75%將消失。你從海岸到海岸看到的所有購(gòu)物中心，將會(huì)被洗劫一空。

Want to know what that is like? Read the Grapes of Wrath, by John Steinbeck. In the final scene, the protagonists are living in a shipping container, and on the verge of starvation. After the currency falls, there will be a lot of empty shipping containers in the United States. They certainly won’t be coming to the United States full.

想知道那是什么樣子嗎？讀讀約翰·斯坦貝克的《憤怒的葡萄》。在最后一幕中，主人公們生活在一個(gè)集裝箱里，幾乎面臨饑餓。貨幣崩潰后，美國(guó)將會(huì)有大量空的集裝箱。那些集裝箱肯定不會(huì)滿載而來(lái)。

Exp. Egghead
You are right in that no civilization can last forever, but I am Bullish on the Democracy of the U.S.A. I believe that there will be a Blue Wave in November that is going to cause the GOP to realize that the U.S. electorate does not want a fraudulent Convict to occupy the Oval Office, that the women of the U.S. do not want the Government to take control of their bodies, that we are tired of Trump’s lies (WAPO counted 30,573 lies told by Trump during his term in office), and that as a party, the GOP is going to have to offer the people something they want if they want to get more votes. Everybody now recognizes that putting 30 million Assault Weapons in the hands of gun owners was a bad idea. The fact that parents who allowed their children access to them, and then saw their children kill their classmates (regardless of the bully status) can now be held responsible and can result in the parent doing time in prison is a plus.

你說(shuō)得對(duì)，沒(méi)有任何文明可以永恒存在，但我對(duì)美國(guó)的民主制度仍然持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。我相信在今年11月會(huì)有一場(chǎng)“藍(lán)色浪潮”，這將促使共和黨意識(shí)到美國(guó)選民不希望一個(gè)有罪的騙子占據(jù)白宮，美國(guó)女性不希望政府控制她們的身體，我們也已經(jīng)厭倦了特朗普的謊言（《華盛頓郵報(bào)》統(tǒng)計(jì)稱，特朗普在任期間說(shuō)了30,573個(gè)謊言），作為一個(gè)政黨，共和黨必須為人民提供他們真正需要的東西，否則他們將無(wú)法獲得更多選票?，F(xiàn)在每個(gè)人都明白，給3000萬(wàn)把攻擊性武器發(fā)放到槍主手中是個(gè)糟糕的主意。那些允許孩子接觸這些武器的父母，之后看到孩子殺害同學(xué)（無(wú)論是否是欺凌者）都可以被追究責(zé)任，并可能面臨監(jiān)禁，這也是一件好事。

I do wish that more of the people digesting everything Faux News prints would move to the New York Times, the Washington Post, or the Los Angeles Times. It tells a bit different kind of story than does Fox News. Rupert Murdoch is the man behind the curtain of Fox News. I do believe that the American Public does not want to vote in Donald J. Trump, son of a KKK man, to be our “Authoritarian Dictator.” That is just absurd.

我確實(shí)希望那些把所有信息都從?？怂剐侣劔@取的人能轉(zhuǎn)向《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》、 《華盛頓郵報(bào)》或《洛杉磯時(shí)報(bào)》。這些媒體的報(bào)道角度與福克斯新聞大不相同。魯伯特·默多克是?？怂剐侣劚澈蟮拇罄小Ｎ掖_實(shí)認(rèn)為美國(guó)公眾不想讓唐納德·J·特朗普——那個(gè)有3K背景的人的兒子——成為我們的“專制DC者”。那簡(jiǎn)直是荒謬的。

I do think that Trump’s days are done, that the GOP will sit down and try to redefine themselves so that they will not remain focused on “We have it and you can’t have it!” which is basically what conservatism is. I do hope that I will someday have to decide if the GOP has become worthy of my consideration.


我確實(shí)認(rèn)為特朗普的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束，共和黨將會(huì)坐下來(lái)重新定義自己，避免繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持“我們有，而你們不能有”的立場(chǎng)，這基本上就是保守主義的核心。我希望有一天我能決定，是否愿意將共和黨視為值得我考慮的選擇。

Those are my opinions on the topic. Our Democracy will no doubt change.

這些是我對(duì)這個(gè)話題的看法。我們的民主制度無(wú)疑會(huì)發(fā)生變化。