紅迪熱議《哪吒之魔童鬧海》票房成功的原因及電影行業(yè)的未來
Chinese animated movie Ne Zha 2 is now eyeing the 2 billion mark at box office.
譯文簡介
這個討論來自于紅迪里一個討論電影票房的專業(yè)社區(qū)，他們預(yù)計《哪吒之魔童鬧?！菲狈繒黄?0億美元大關(guān)，并且會成為全球電影市場上的一大競爭者，他們對該影片在票房上的巨大成功非常驚訝，所以積極討論它之所以這么成功的原因，以及電影行業(yè)的未來。
正文翻譯
Chinese animated movie Ne Zha 2 is now eyeing the 2 billion mark at box office.
中國動畫電影《哪吒之魔童鬧?！纺壳罢闇?zhǔn)20億（美元）票房大關(guān)。
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Avatar 3 has an unexpected competito
《阿凡達(dá)3》迎來了一個意想不到的競爭者。
Crazy numbers for a movie released in a single market.
對于一部只在單一市場上映的電影來說，真是個瘋狂的數(shù)字。
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It's Chinese society more homogenous? Or this is the result of them being just so many people in their coutry
（回復(fù)utilizador2021）是中國社會更為同質(zhì)化嗎？還是說這僅僅是因為他們國家人口眾多的結(jié)果？
Both! Most people know Mandarin as a lingua franca, and it was released during Chinese New Year. The release date is prime time for huge Chinese blockbusters as it is during a national holiday and many take time to go to the theaters.
The pervasive cultural legends surrounding Nezha also contributed to its success. Most of the population of China is of Han ethnicity, but India has many different cultural and language spheres.
兩者都有！中國大多數(shù)人都能說普通話，且這部電影正好在中國春節(jié)期間上映。這個檔期正是中國大片的黃金檔期，因為是全國假期，很多人都會抽時間去看電影。圍繞哪吒的廣泛文化傳說也為其成功做出了貢獻(xiàn)。
中國大多數(shù)人口是漢族，但（同樣14億人口的）印度有許多不同的文化和語言群體。
There are dozens of Chinese languages and cultures, but the success of this movie has nothing to do with ethnicity lM. Chinese people don’t watch (or avoid) movies because of ethnic identification.
Nezha isn’t defined as a Han legend, it’s a Chinese legend that all Chinese people know.
（回復(fù)SockNo1637）中國有數(shù)十種語言和文化，但這部電影的成功與民族無關(guān)，哈哈。中國人看什么電影（或不看什么電影）并不是因為民族認(rèn)同。
哪吒不僅僅只是漢族的傳說，它是一個所有中國人都知道的中國傳說。
You're absolutely right, Chinese Society is very homogeneous.
（回復(fù)Key_Feeling_3083）你說得完全正確，中國社會確實非常同質(zhì)化。
On the contrary, China has 56 ethnic groups
（回復(fù)EvenAd3470）恰恰相反，中國有56個民族。
Goes to show that a film hitting $4 billion is possible eventually. It just has to be huge in China and the rest of the world.
（回復(fù)utilizador2021）這證明了一部電影最終能突破40億美元是有可能的。它只需要在中國和全球其他地區(qū)都能取得巨大的成功。
$4 billion really isn't even that crazy to imagine.
$1B from China + $1B from US + $2B elsewhere is totally reasonable.
and by totally reasonable I mean something on the level of Titanic or Avatar, adjusted for today's inflation and theater expansion.
（回復(fù)NoNefariousness2144）40億美元其實并不是難以想象的數(shù)字。
中國10億美元 + 美國10億美元 + 其他地區(qū)20億美元，完全合理。
所謂完全合理，指的是像《泰坦尼克號》或《阿凡達(dá)》這樣的級別，只不過是根據(jù)今天的通貨膨脹和電影院擴(kuò)展進(jìn)行調(diào)整后的數(shù)字。
I think the cinema experience will die out eventually, or at least be relegated to the relatively niche experience like theatre. It's possible that we've reached peak BO, even factoring in inflation.
（回復(fù)NoNefariousness2144）我認(rèn)為在電影院這一娛樂體驗形式最終會消失，或者至少會淪為像劇院那樣相對小眾的體驗。即使考慮到通貨膨脹，我們也可能已經(jīng)達(dá)到了票房的頂峰。
In the USA, 2002 was peak cinema attendance. In 2024 half the number of people visit each year.
It’s just that ticket prices have doubled in the last 20 years.
（回復(fù)rammo123）在美國，2002年是電影院觀影人數(shù)的高峰期。到2024年，每年去電影院的人數(shù)卻只有之前的一半。
只是過去20年里電影票的價格翻了一番。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Does this make sense with the rise of China?
Maybe in the US domestic market that's true
（回復(fù)Agile-Music-2295）從中國的票房增長來看是講得通的嗎？（譯者注：這里指的是上一條評論里“在美國，2002年是電影院觀影人數(shù)的高峰期”的論述）
也許在美國國內(nèi)市場確實如此。
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Yeah I was talking about USA.
Right now in the USA it’s all about TikTok. Use has doubled in a few years while mobile gaming has dropped dramatically, along with produced content.
（回復(fù)WirelessZombie）是的，我說的正是美國。
現(xiàn)在在美國，一切都與TikTok有關(guān)。TikTok使用量在幾年內(nèi)翻了一倍，而移動游戲的使用量急劇下降，制作內(nèi)容也隨之減少。
I think both can thrive at the same time tbh. China is far more addicted to tiktok and short form content on the web than America is, yet they're also have record ticket admission numbers.
（回復(fù)Agile-Music-2295）我認(rèn)為兩者都可以同時蓬勃發(fā)展呀。中國比美國更沉迷于抖音和短視頻內(nèi)容，但他們也有創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的電影觀影人數(shù)。
Yeah, I honestly find arguments like "TikTok will cause cinemas to die out" argument to be kind of questionable at best and borderline asinine at worst. Like, this was one of the arguments on why Inside Out 2 might actually gross less than its predecessor worldwide.
（回復(fù)KhaLe18）是的，老實說我覺得像“TikTok會導(dǎo)致電影院消亡”這種論調(diào)挺可疑的，甚至還顯得非常愚蠢。比如，這曾是為什么《心靈奇旅2》全球票房不如前作的可能理由之一。
This is ridiculous in a week projections have gone from $1 billion to $2 billion
這太荒謬了，才一周，票房預(yù)估就從10億美元漲到20億美元了。
Can someone explain why the hell this happened? Why did this specific film take off like this?
能有人解釋一下這是怎么發(fā)生的嗎？為什么這部電影會這么火？
Ne Zha is a widly beloved tale and charachter with multiple adaptations across the last 100 years with a very strong cultural imprint. The 1979 animated movie in particular is well beloved.
Which means it transcends ages from young to old and genders. Ne Zha 2 is what Holywood would call a Four-quadrant movie. Unlike Battle At Lake Changjin or Wolf Warrior 2.
The 2019 first part was very well received going on to become the 2nd highest grossing movie in China and with 2nd most admissions behind Wolf Warrior 2. Hell it became the biggest animated movie in a single market beating Incredibles 2's Domestic gross at the time. It left a lasting legacy.
The 2nd part is bigger, better, riding on the sequel boost and released into the most superjuiced Holiday period on the planet. A period where 4 of the 6 movies flaundered leaving a big opening. Which Ne Zha 2 captured.
Thing is it became so big so fast that it likely transcended past the general movie going population as people online and on TV saw how much its making and decided to check it out. Then recommend it forward etc...
（回復(fù)AvengingHero2012）哪吒是一個廣受喜愛的故事和角色，過去100年里有多次改編，并且有著非常強(qiáng)烈的文化烙印，尤其是1979年那部動畫電影（譯者注：指的是經(jīng)典美術(shù)片《哪吒鬧?！罚?，深受喜愛。
這意味著它超越了年齡和性別的界限?！赌倪钢[海》正是好萊塢所說的“四象限票房強(qiáng)片”（譯者注， Four-quadrant movie是指可以吸引到年輕男性、年輕女性、中老年男性、中老年女性這四個主要觀眾群體的“全齡化”電影，好萊塢常用《泰坦尼克號》來作為案例）。與《長津湖》或《戰(zhàn)狼2》不同。
2019年的第一部（即《哪吒之魔童降世》）反響非常好，最終成為當(dāng)時中國票房第二高的電影，僅次于《戰(zhàn)狼2》，并且觀影人次也排在第二位。簡直可以說，它成為了單一市場最大的一部動畫電影，超越了當(dāng)時《超人總動員2》的國內(nèi)票房。這部電影留下了深遠(yuǎn)的影響。
第二部（即《哪吒之魔童鬧?！罚└?、更好，依托續(xù)集效應(yīng)，在全球最火爆的假期檔期上映。在這個檔期，6部電影中有4部票房滑坡，給了《哪吒2》一個巨大的機(jī)會。而《哪吒2》也抓住了這個機(jī)會。
關(guān)鍵是，它迅速變得如此火爆，可能已經(jīng)超越了普通的觀影人群，因為網(wǎng)上和電視上的人們看到它的票房表現(xiàn)后，紛紛決定去觀看，接著又推薦給他人……
This is unprecedented. I'm really curious to see how this movie is gonna do in other markets. So far I can only see it's confirmed to be released in Australia, the US, and New Zealand. I hope a few other distributors in major markets pick it up.
這是前所未有的。我真的很想看看這部電影在其他市場的表現(xiàn)如何。到目前為止，我只看到它已確認(rèn)將在澳大利亞、美國和新西蘭上映。希望其他一些主要市場的發(fā)行商能接手。
How do I watch the first one
我該如何觀看第一部（即《哪吒之魔童降世》）？
YouTube, search “Ne Zha”, it’s original Chinese version w/ subtitles. Free with ads
（回復(fù)Infinite077）在YouTube搜索“Ne Zha”，它是中文原版+帶字幕，免費帶廣告。
If In USA it’s on roku channel, original mandarin with English subtitles
（回復(fù)Infinite077）如果你在美國，可以去 roku 頻道上看，普通話原聲+英文字幕。
This year could be a history in the making. Two 2 billion movies in a single year
今年可能是正在創(chuàng)造歷史的一年。一年兩部 20 億部電影。
This is 2025’s TGM/Barbie/IO2, except nobody predicted it to get anything and now it could reach $2B, far away from any of those films grosses
這部電影是2025年的《壯志凌云2：獨行俠》/《芭比》/《異星覺醒2》，只是沒有人預(yù)料到它能取得任何成績，現(xiàn)在它可能會突破20億美元，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出這些影片的總票房。
This is nothing like those films, its nothing like any film release we've ever seen.
Endgame had the opening weekend hype but fell off quickly. Titanic had the never ending run and was the first film to do well worldwide. But Ne Zha 2's run is utterly unique, it just isnt slowing down, each day of the week is performing like an opening day.
（回復(fù)TBOY5873）這部電影與那些影片完全不同，也和我們以前見過的任何電影發(fā)行趨勢都不一樣。
《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟：終局之戰(zhàn)》有著開畫周末的熱度，但很快就掉下去了?！短┨鼓峥颂枴穭t有著無休止的上映期，并且是第一部在全球范圍內(nèi)表現(xiàn)出色的影片。但《哪吒之魔童鬧?！返钠狈勘憩F(xiàn)是獨一無二的，它迄今為止根本沒有放緩的跡象，每一周的每一天票房都像是首映日一樣！