為什么俄美會(huì)談對(duì)所有人來(lái)說(shuō)都是一個(gè)好兆頭
Why Russia-US talks are a good sign for all
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
俄美關(guān)系的轉(zhuǎn)變可能為一個(gè)更加平衡的多極體系打開(kāi)一扇大門(mén)
正文翻譯
The shift in relations between Russia and the US may open a door for a more balanced multipolar system
俄美關(guān)系的轉(zhuǎn)變可能為一個(gè)更加平衡的多極體系打開(kāi)一扇大門(mén)
Africa has been heavily affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine since the start of Russia’s military operation in February 2022.
自2022年2月俄羅斯開(kāi)始軍事行動(dòng)以來(lái)，非洲受到俄烏沖突的嚴(yán)重影響。
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自2022年2月俄羅斯開(kāi)始軍事行動(dòng)以來(lái)，非洲受到俄烏沖突的嚴(yán)重影響。
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According to a report compiled by ODI Global, the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), the Economic Research Forum (ERF), and Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP), ‘Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on Africa: policy implications for navigating shocks and building resilience’, Africa has been caught in the crossfire due to lack of supplies of food and agricultural commodities.
根據(jù)ODI全球、非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)研究聯(lián)盟、經(jīng)濟(jì)研究論壇和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策伙伴關(guān)系編寫(xiě)的一份報(bào)告《俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)對(duì)非洲的影響：應(yīng)對(duì)沖擊和增強(qiáng)抵御能力的政策啟示》，非洲因缺乏糧食和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)而陷入困境。
根據(jù)ODI全球、非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)研究聯(lián)盟、經(jīng)濟(jì)研究論壇和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策伙伴關(guān)系編寫(xiě)的一份報(bào)告《俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)對(duì)非洲的影響：應(yīng)對(duì)沖擊和增強(qiáng)抵御能力的政策啟示》，非洲因缺乏糧食和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)而陷入困境。
The report features case studies on Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, and Sudan, and finds that while direct trade exposure is low, Africa relies on Russia and Ukraine for food and fertilizer imports.
報(bào)告對(duì)埃及、埃塞俄比亞、肯尼亞、摩洛哥、莫桑比克、塞內(nèi)加爾、南非和蘇丹進(jìn)行了案例研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)盡管直接貿(mào)易接觸率較低，但非洲依賴俄羅斯和烏克蘭的食品和化肥進(jìn)口。
報(bào)告對(duì)埃及、埃塞俄比亞、肯尼亞、摩洛哥、莫桑比克、塞內(nèi)加爾、南非和蘇丹進(jìn)行了案例研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)盡管直接貿(mào)易接觸率較低，但非洲依賴俄羅斯和烏克蘭的食品和化肥進(jìn)口。
Prices up
The conflict has driven up prices of oil, food and fertilizers globally. Simulations suggest that a 10% shock in oil, food and fertilizer prices may reduce Africa’s annual GDP by $7 billion. Actual impacts are likely to be higher since oil, food and fertilizer prices increased by larger shares, at 40%, 18% and 55%, respectively, in 2022.
價(jià)格上漲
沖突導(dǎo)致全球石油、食品和化肥價(jià)格上漲。模擬結(jié)果表明，石油、食品和化肥價(jià)格波動(dòng) 10% 可能導(dǎo)致非洲年度 GDP 減少 70 億美元。實(shí)際影響可能更大，因?yàn)槭?、食品和化肥價(jià)格漲幅更大，到 2022 年分別達(dá)到 40%、18% 和 55%。
The conflict has driven up prices of oil, food and fertilizers globally. Simulations suggest that a 10% shock in oil, food and fertilizer prices may reduce Africa’s annual GDP by $7 billion. Actual impacts are likely to be higher since oil, food and fertilizer prices increased by larger shares, at 40%, 18% and 55%, respectively, in 2022.
價(jià)格上漲
沖突導(dǎo)致全球石油、食品和化肥價(jià)格上漲。模擬結(jié)果表明，石油、食品和化肥價(jià)格波動(dòng) 10% 可能導(dǎo)致非洲年度 GDP 減少 70 億美元。實(shí)際影響可能更大，因?yàn)槭?、食品和化肥價(jià)格漲幅更大，到 2022 年分別達(dá)到 40%、18% 和 55%。
Global commodity price increases also prompted an increase in interest rates in high-income countries, which in turn triggered capital outflows, exchange rate depreciation and higher borrowing costs for many African countries. The magnitude of an individual country’s impacts varies based on commodity dependence, financial openness, and domestic vulnerabilities.
全球大宗商品價(jià)格上漲也促使高收入國(guó)家提高利率，進(jìn)而引發(fā)資本外流、匯率貶值和許多非洲國(guó)家借貸成本上升。單個(gè)國(guó)家受到的影響程度因大宗商品依賴程度、金融開(kāi)放程度和國(guó)內(nèi)脆弱性而異。
全球大宗商品價(jià)格上漲也促使高收入國(guó)家提高利率，進(jìn)而引發(fā)資本外流、匯率貶值和許多非洲國(guó)家借貸成本上升。單個(gè)國(guó)家受到的影響程度因大宗商品依賴程度、金融開(kāi)放程度和國(guó)內(nèi)脆弱性而異。
The conflict may have exacerbated the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the deterioration of Africa’s macroeconomic and social performance. The overlapping crises have slowed Africa’s development progress and risk long-term “scarring” effects. In 2022, 18 million new poor people were added to the 546 million Africans already living in poverty, and one out of five Africans faced high levels of food insecurity. Women and vulnerable groups also tend to be disproportionately impacted by shocks.
沖突可能加劇了新冠疫情對(duì)非洲宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)表現(xiàn)惡化的影響。多重危機(jī)減緩了非洲的發(fā)展進(jìn)程，并有可能產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期的“疤痕”效應(yīng)。2022年，非洲貧困人口總數(shù)已達(dá)5.46億，新增貧困人口1800萬(wàn)，五分之一的非洲人面臨嚴(yán)重的糧食不安全狀況。婦女和弱勢(shì)群體也往往受到?jīng)_擊的嚴(yán)重影響。
沖突可能加劇了新冠疫情對(duì)非洲宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)表現(xiàn)惡化的影響。多重危機(jī)減緩了非洲的發(fā)展進(jìn)程，并有可能產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期的“疤痕”效應(yīng)。2022年，非洲貧困人口總數(shù)已達(dá)5.46億，新增貧困人口1800萬(wàn)，五分之一的非洲人面臨嚴(yán)重的糧食不安全狀況。婦女和弱勢(shì)群體也往往受到?jīng)_擊的嚴(yán)重影響。
Wheat and fertilizers
In Kenya and Egypt, for example, Russian and Ukrainian wheat once accounted for as much as 85% and 67% of wheat imports respectively. Fertilizers, vital for agriculture, have also become scarce and expensive. Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, Senegal, and South Africa sourced 11%–41% of their fertilizer imports from Russia and Ukraine. As a result, food prices have soared, pushing millions into food insecurity.
小麥和肥料
例如，在肯尼亞和埃及，俄羅斯和烏克蘭小麥曾分別占小麥進(jìn)口量的 85% 和 67%。對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)至關(guān)重要的肥料也變得稀缺和昂貴。埃及、埃塞俄比亞、摩洛哥、塞內(nèi)加爾和南非從俄羅斯和烏克蘭進(jìn)口了 11%-41% 的肥料。結(jié)果，糧食價(jià)格飆升，使數(shù)百萬(wàn)人陷入糧食不安全境地。
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In Kenya and Egypt, for example, Russian and Ukrainian wheat once accounted for as much as 85% and 67% of wheat imports respectively. Fertilizers, vital for agriculture, have also become scarce and expensive. Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, Senegal, and South Africa sourced 11%–41% of their fertilizer imports from Russia and Ukraine. As a result, food prices have soared, pushing millions into food insecurity.
小麥和肥料
例如，在肯尼亞和埃及，俄羅斯和烏克蘭小麥曾分別占小麥進(jìn)口量的 85% 和 67%。對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)至關(guān)重要的肥料也變得稀缺和昂貴。埃及、埃塞俄比亞、摩洛哥、塞內(nèi)加爾和南非從俄羅斯和烏克蘭進(jìn)口了 11%-41% 的肥料。結(jié)果，糧食價(jià)格飆升，使數(shù)百萬(wàn)人陷入糧食不安全境地。
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Energy bills have surged, putting pressure on national budgets and household finances. Fuel prices in some countries have more than doubled, forcing governments to pass costs onto consumers or risk bankruptcy. The economic strain has also forced many African families to cut spending on once-affordable essentials, with the most vulnerable populations being hit the hardest.
能源賬單激增，給國(guó)家預(yù)算和家庭財(cái)務(wù)帶來(lái)壓力。一些國(guó)家的燃料價(jià)格上漲了一倍多，迫使政府將成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者，否則將面臨破產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力還迫使許多非洲家庭削減曾經(jīng)負(fù)擔(dān)得起的必需品支出，最脆弱的人群受到的打擊最大。
能源賬單激增，給國(guó)家預(yù)算和家庭財(cái)務(wù)帶來(lái)壓力。一些國(guó)家的燃料價(jià)格上漲了一倍多，迫使政府將成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者，否則將面臨破產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力還迫使許多非洲家庭削減曾經(jīng)負(fù)擔(dān)得起的必需品支出，最脆弱的人群受到的打擊最大。
In West Africa, the situation is the same. The economic crisis in Nigeria has been substantially driven by the conflict, which has had an impact on the costs of important commodities as well as everyday living expenses. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to shortages in fertilizer availability, leading to high prices of fertilizer. Likewise, prices of major food commodities, such as maize, rice, wheat and cooking oils, have been on the rise. This has exposed the country’s vulnerable agrifood system and weakened the local currency, leading to foreign exchange shortages and high inflation rates.
西非的情況也一樣。尼日利亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)很大程度上是由沖突引發(fā)的，沖突影響了重要商品的成本以及日常生活開(kāi)支。俄羅斯和烏克蘭的沖突導(dǎo)致化肥短缺，化肥價(jià)格上漲。同樣，玉米、大米、小麥和食用油等主要食品的價(jià)格也在上漲。這暴露了該國(guó)脆弱的農(nóng)業(yè)食品體系，削弱了當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?，?dǎo)致外匯短缺和高通脹率。
西非的情況也一樣。尼日利亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)很大程度上是由沖突引發(fā)的，沖突影響了重要商品的成本以及日常生活開(kāi)支。俄羅斯和烏克蘭的沖突導(dǎo)致化肥短缺，化肥價(jià)格上漲。同樣，玉米、大米、小麥和食用油等主要食品的價(jià)格也在上漲。這暴露了該國(guó)脆弱的農(nóng)業(yè)食品體系，削弱了當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?，?dǎo)致外匯短缺和高通脹率。
According to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, Nigeria is spending more on wheat imports amid high global wheat prices. The situation has negatively impacted Nigeria’s wheat supply value chain. More importantly, official records showed a drastic reduction in durum wheat imports from Russia in 2022. Russia was one of the country’s primary sources of cheap wheat.
根據(jù)美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部對(duì)外農(nóng)業(yè)服務(wù)局（FAS）的全球農(nóng)業(yè)信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)報(bào)告，在全球小麥價(jià)格高企的背景下，尼日利亞在小麥進(jìn)口上的支出增加。這種情況對(duì)尼日利亞的小麥供應(yīng)價(jià)值鏈產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響。更重要的是，官方記錄顯示，2022 年從俄羅斯進(jìn)口的硬粒小麥大幅減少。俄羅斯是該國(guó)廉價(jià)小麥的主要來(lái)源之一。
根據(jù)美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部對(duì)外農(nóng)業(yè)服務(wù)局（FAS）的全球農(nóng)業(yè)信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)報(bào)告，在全球小麥價(jià)格高企的背景下，尼日利亞在小麥進(jìn)口上的支出增加。這種情況對(duì)尼日利亞的小麥供應(yīng)價(jià)值鏈產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響。更重要的是，官方記錄顯示，2022 年從俄羅斯進(jìn)口的硬粒小麥大幅減少。俄羅斯是該國(guó)廉價(jià)小麥的主要來(lái)源之一。
Grain deal collapse
The issue of supply disruption has a direct lix with the Black Sea grain deal that collapsed. The deal, which was initially brokered by the UN and Türkiye in July 2022, was meant to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain, such as wheat, corn and sunflower products, to world markets, primarily to poorer countries.
糧食協(xié)議破裂
供應(yīng)中斷問(wèn)題與破裂的黑海糧食協(xié)議有直接聯(lián)系。該協(xié)議最初由聯(lián)合國(guó)和土耳其于 2022 年 7 月促成，旨在促進(jìn)烏克蘭糧食（如小麥、玉米和向日葵產(chǎn)品）出口到世界市場(chǎng)，主要是出口到較貧窮的國(guó)家。
The issue of supply disruption has a direct lix with the Black Sea grain deal that collapsed. The deal, which was initially brokered by the UN and Türkiye in July 2022, was meant to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain, such as wheat, corn and sunflower products, to world markets, primarily to poorer countries.
糧食協(xié)議破裂
供應(yīng)中斷問(wèn)題與破裂的黑海糧食協(xié)議有直接聯(lián)系。該協(xié)議最初由聯(lián)合國(guó)和土耳其于 2022 年 7 月促成，旨在促進(jìn)烏克蘭糧食（如小麥、玉米和向日葵產(chǎn)品）出口到世界市場(chǎng)，主要是出口到較貧窮的國(guó)家。
In exchange for allowing the shipments of Ukrainian grain, Moscow was promised that Western sanctions would be lifted from its own agricultural exports. A year after it was struck, Russia had to abandon the deal, arguing that it was still unable to get any of its grain or fertilizer out to world markets and that the West had completely ignored its end of the bargain.
Additionally, Moscow noted that more than 70% of the shipments under the initiative had failed to reach poor countries, especially in Africa, and were instead delivered to wealthy nations.
作為允許烏克蘭糧食運(yùn)輸?shù)慕粨Q條件，俄羅斯承諾解除西方對(duì)其農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的制裁。協(xié)議達(dá)成一年后，俄羅斯不得不放棄這項(xiàng)協(xié)議，稱其仍無(wú)法將任何糧食或化肥運(yùn)往世界市場(chǎng)，西方完全無(wú)視其承諾。
此外，莫斯科指出，根據(jù)該倡議，70% 以上的糧食未能運(yùn)抵貧窮國(guó)家，尤其是非洲國(guó)家，而是運(yùn)往了富裕國(guó)家。
Additionally, Moscow noted that more than 70% of the shipments under the initiative had failed to reach poor countries, especially in Africa, and were instead delivered to wealthy nations.
作為允許烏克蘭糧食運(yùn)輸?shù)慕粨Q條件，俄羅斯承諾解除西方對(duì)其農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的制裁。協(xié)議達(dá)成一年后，俄羅斯不得不放棄這項(xiàng)協(xié)議，稱其仍無(wú)法將任何糧食或化肥運(yùn)往世界市場(chǎng)，西方完全無(wú)視其承諾。
此外，莫斯科指出，根據(jù)該倡議，70% 以上的糧食未能運(yùn)抵貧窮國(guó)家，尤其是非洲國(guó)家，而是運(yùn)往了富裕國(guó)家。
Russia then announced it would deliver free grain directly to African countries, in order to help with food security. In July 2023, during the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin pledged to provide free food assistance to six African countries, and Moscow had successfully completed delivery of 200,000 tons of food aid by February 2024.
俄羅斯隨后宣布將直接向非洲國(guó)家提供免費(fèi)糧食，以幫助保障糧食安全。2023年7月，在圣彼得堡舉行的俄非峰會(huì)上，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京承諾向六個(gè)非洲國(guó)家提供免費(fèi)糧食援助，莫斯科已于2024年2月成功完成了20萬(wàn)噸糧食援助的運(yùn)送。
俄羅斯隨后宣布將直接向非洲國(guó)家提供免費(fèi)糧食，以幫助保障糧食安全。2023年7月，在圣彼得堡舉行的俄非峰會(huì)上，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京承諾向六個(gè)非洲國(guó)家提供免費(fèi)糧食援助，莫斯科已于2024年2月成功完成了20萬(wàn)噸糧食援助的運(yùn)送。
Oil and gas
On the oil and gas market, Nigeria’s National Oil Company NNPC Limited affirmed that the crisis has affected the supply chain of Nigeria’s energy outlook. Maryamu Idris, executive director, Crude & Condensate, NNPC Trading Limited, said in a November 2023 panel presentation at the Argus European Crude Conference in London, that in addition to the substantial price shocks impacting commodity and energy prices globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a situation where India, a primary destination for Nigerian crude oil increased its appetite for discounted Russian barrels to the detriment of some Nigerian volumes.
石油和天然氣
在石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)，尼日利亞國(guó)家石油公司 NNPC Limited 確認(rèn)，這場(chǎng)危機(jī)已經(jīng)影響了尼日利亞能源前景的供應(yīng)鏈。NNPC Trading Limited 原油和凝析油執(zhí)行董事 Maryamu Idris 在 2023 年 11 月倫敦 Argus 歐洲原油會(huì)議上的小組演講中表示，除了影響全球大宗商品和能源價(jià)格的重大價(jià)格沖擊外，俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的沖突還引發(fā)了這樣一種情況：作為尼日利亞原油主要目的地的印度增加了對(duì)俄羅斯打折原油的需求，從而損害了部分尼日利亞原油產(chǎn)量。
On the oil and gas market, Nigeria’s National Oil Company NNPC Limited affirmed that the crisis has affected the supply chain of Nigeria’s energy outlook. Maryamu Idris, executive director, Crude & Condensate, NNPC Trading Limited, said in a November 2023 panel presentation at the Argus European Crude Conference in London, that in addition to the substantial price shocks impacting commodity and energy prices globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a situation where India, a primary destination for Nigerian crude oil increased its appetite for discounted Russian barrels to the detriment of some Nigerian volumes.
石油和天然氣
在石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)，尼日利亞國(guó)家石油公司 NNPC Limited 確認(rèn)，這場(chǎng)危機(jī)已經(jīng)影響了尼日利亞能源前景的供應(yīng)鏈。NNPC Trading Limited 原油和凝析油執(zhí)行董事 Maryamu Idris 在 2023 年 11 月倫敦 Argus 歐洲原油會(huì)議上的小組演講中表示，除了影響全球大宗商品和能源價(jià)格的重大價(jià)格沖擊外，俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的沖突還引發(fā)了這樣一種情況：作為尼日利亞原油主要目的地的印度增加了對(duì)俄羅斯打折原油的需求，從而損害了部分尼日利亞原油產(chǎn)量。
“To illustrate the extent of this shift, Nigeria’s crude exports to India dwindled from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the six months preceding the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to 194,000 in the subsequent six months afterwards. And so far, this year, only around 120,000 bpd of Nigerian crude volumes have made their way to India,” she said.
“為了說(shuō)明這種轉(zhuǎn)變的程度，尼日利亞對(duì)印度的原油出口量從 2022 年 2 月入侵烏克蘭前六個(gè)月的約 25 萬(wàn)桶/日減少到隨后六個(gè)月的 19.4 萬(wàn)桶/日。到目前為止，今年只有約 12 萬(wàn)桶/日的尼日利亞原油運(yùn)往印度，”她說(shuō)。
“為了說(shuō)明這種轉(zhuǎn)變的程度，尼日利亞對(duì)印度的原油出口量從 2022 年 2 月入侵烏克蘭前六個(gè)月的約 25 萬(wàn)桶/日減少到隨后六個(gè)月的 19.4 萬(wàn)桶/日。到目前為止，今年只有約 12 萬(wàn)桶/日的尼日利亞原油運(yùn)往印度，”她說(shuō)。
What’s next?
Now that the prospect of peace is here, it looks portent that the African economy will be revived to a more positive direction.
What is even more significant is the prospect of the American acceptance to the new reality of the multipolar world. Saudi Arabia, not Belgium or France or the United Kingdom, was chosen for talks between the US and Russia. Under President Donald Trump, the US is indicating its disconnect to the old order where everything starts and ends in the West. This, however, remain somewhat twisted, considering Trump’s unfavorable stand against the BRICS.
接下來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么？
既然和平的前景已經(jīng)到來(lái)，這似乎預(yù)示著非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)將朝著更積極的方向復(fù)蘇。
更重要的是，美國(guó)接受多極世界新現(xiàn)實(shí)的前景。美國(guó)和俄羅斯選擇在沙特阿拉伯進(jìn)行會(huì)談，而不是比利時(shí)、法國(guó)或英國(guó)。在唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，美國(guó)表明它與一切始于西方、終于西方的舊秩序脫節(jié)。然而，考慮到特朗普對(duì)金磚國(guó)家的不利立場(chǎng)，這種說(shuō)法仍然有些扭曲。
Now that the prospect of peace is here, it looks portent that the African economy will be revived to a more positive direction.
What is even more significant is the prospect of the American acceptance to the new reality of the multipolar world. Saudi Arabia, not Belgium or France or the United Kingdom, was chosen for talks between the US and Russia. Under President Donald Trump, the US is indicating its disconnect to the old order where everything starts and ends in the West. This, however, remain somewhat twisted, considering Trump’s unfavorable stand against the BRICS.
接下來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么？
既然和平的前景已經(jīng)到來(lái)，這似乎預(yù)示著非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)將朝著更積極的方向復(fù)蘇。
更重要的是，美國(guó)接受多極世界新現(xiàn)實(shí)的前景。美國(guó)和俄羅斯選擇在沙特阿拉伯進(jìn)行會(huì)談，而不是比利時(shí)、法國(guó)或英國(guó)。在唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，美國(guó)表明它與一切始于西方、終于西方的舊秩序脫節(jié)。然而，考慮到特朗普對(duì)金磚國(guó)家的不利立場(chǎng)，這種說(shuō)法仍然有些扭曲。
The fact is, Africa will be better with the new multipolar order. Most of the current multilateral institutions were created before many African states gain their independence. The United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, SWIFT Payment system, etc. were all created, engineered and controlled by the Western powers, often deployed at the detriment of African progress.
事實(shí)上，在新的多極秩序下，非洲會(huì)變得更好。大多數(shù)現(xiàn)有的多邊機(jī)構(gòu)都是在許多非洲國(guó)家獲得獨(dú)立之前建立的。聯(lián)合國(guó)、國(guó)際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行、世界貿(mào)易組織、環(huán)球銀行金融電信協(xié)會(huì)支付系統(tǒng)等都是由西方列強(qiáng)創(chuàng)建、設(shè)計(jì)和控制的，這些機(jī)構(gòu)的部署往往損害了非洲的進(jìn)步。
事實(shí)上，在新的多極秩序下，非洲會(huì)變得更好。大多數(shù)現(xiàn)有的多邊機(jī)構(gòu)都是在許多非洲國(guó)家獲得獨(dú)立之前建立的。聯(lián)合國(guó)、國(guó)際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行、世界貿(mào)易組織、環(huán)球銀行金融電信協(xié)會(huì)支付系統(tǒng)等都是由西方列強(qiáng)創(chuàng)建、設(shè)計(jì)和控制的，這些機(jī)構(gòu)的部署往往損害了非洲的進(jìn)步。
These institutions help in strengthening the unipolar system, with the US as the leader of hegemony, supported by the European unx. These institutions have long been tagged as the neocolonial assets used in shortchanging the African continent on its valuable resources, weakening the growth and development of the entire continent through unfair treatment and practices.
這些機(jī)構(gòu)有助于加強(qiáng)以美國(guó)為霸權(quán)領(lǐng)袖、歐盟為后盾的單極體系。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，這些機(jī)構(gòu)一直被視為新殖民主義資產(chǎn)，用于剝奪非洲大陸的寶貴資源，通過(guò)不公平的待遇和做法削弱整個(gè)非洲大陸的增長(zhǎng)和發(fā)展。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
這些機(jī)構(gòu)有助于加強(qiáng)以美國(guó)為霸權(quán)領(lǐng)袖、歐盟為后盾的單極體系。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，這些機(jī)構(gòu)一直被視為新殖民主義資產(chǎn)，用于剝奪非洲大陸的寶貴資源，通過(guò)不公平的待遇和做法削弱整個(gè)非洲大陸的增長(zhǎng)和發(fā)展。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
More balance needed
Hence the quest for Africa is to have a new, more balanced international system.
需要更多的平衡
因此，非洲的追求是建立一個(gè)新的、更加平衡的國(guó)際體系。
Hence the quest for Africa is to have a new, more balanced international system.
需要更多的平衡
因此，非洲的追求是建立一個(gè)新的、更加平衡的國(guó)際體系。
Africa has long demanded to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council, several promises were made by the US and other powers, yet nothing was granted. Africa requested enough trade to fund its infrastructure, healthcare and education programs that will serve the needs of the people, yet the Western powers deem it more appropriate to respond to African demands for equal participation and representation with aid, rather than with mutually beneficial proposals to both parties.
非洲長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直要求成為聯(lián)合國(guó)安理會(huì)常任理事國(guó)，美國(guó)和其他大國(guó)也曾多次作出承諾，但最終都未能實(shí)現(xiàn)。非洲要求有足夠的貿(mào)易來(lái)資助其基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、醫(yī)療保健和教育項(xiàng)目，以滿足人民的需求，但西方大國(guó)認(rèn)為，用援助來(lái)滿足非洲平等參與和代表權(quán)的要求比提出對(duì)雙方都有利的提議更合適。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
非洲長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直要求成為聯(lián)合國(guó)安理會(huì)常任理事國(guó)，美國(guó)和其他大國(guó)也曾多次作出承諾，但最終都未能實(shí)現(xiàn)。非洲要求有足夠的貿(mào)易來(lái)資助其基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、醫(yī)療保健和教育項(xiàng)目，以滿足人民的需求，但西方大國(guó)認(rèn)為，用援助來(lái)滿足非洲平等參與和代表權(quán)的要求比提出對(duì)雙方都有利的提議更合適。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
The new peace talks between Russia and the US may open the door for a more equal, balanced and orderly multipolar system that will be formed when Africa is fully aware, independent and at the table. This will help Africa as a continent to push forward its interests within the emerging BRICS multipolar system.
俄美之間的新和平談判可能為更加平等、平衡和有序的多極體系打開(kāi)大門(mén)，當(dāng)非洲充分意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)、獨(dú)立并參與其中時(shí)，這一體系就會(huì)形成。這將有助于非洲大陸在新興的金磚國(guó)家多極體系中推進(jìn)其利益。
俄美之間的新和平談判可能為更加平等、平衡和有序的多極體系打開(kāi)大門(mén)，當(dāng)非洲充分意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)、獨(dú)立并參與其中時(shí)，這一體系就會(huì)形成。這將有助于非洲大陸在新興的金磚國(guó)家多極體系中推進(jìn)其利益。
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Nah, US is just shifting their imperialist focus to other places again since they’ve accepted that they got all they could out of Ukraine. But they’ll be back, their goals are still the same globally, just they are reconfiguring their tactics.
不，美國(guó)只是再次將帝國(guó)主義焦點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到其他地方，因?yàn)樗麄円呀?jīng)承認(rèn)自己從烏克蘭得到了一切。但他們會(huì)回來(lái)的，他們的全球目標(biāo)仍然相同，只是他們正在重新配置策略。
Ukraine isn’t done. EU will keep fighting that war. It’s just logistics. EU can’t fight China and America’s navy not worth much against RF
烏克蘭問(wèn)題還沒(méi)有解決。歐盟將繼續(xù)打這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。這只是后勤問(wèn)題。歐盟無(wú)法與中國(guó)抗衡，而美國(guó)海軍在俄羅斯面前毫無(wú)價(jià)值
The US is a fading player on the world stage. They have been outclassed by Russia and China. Now India is growing beyond their control. Brazil has a massive military, too. All BRICS members as well.
The best the US can hope is a seat at the table if they play nice and, for once, actually mean it.
美國(guó)在世界舞臺(tái)上的地位正在逐漸下降。他們已經(jīng)被俄羅斯和中國(guó)超越?，F(xiàn)在印度的發(fā)展超出了他們的控制范圍。巴西也有龐大的軍隊(duì)。金磚國(guó)家也一樣。
美國(guó)所能期望的最好結(jié)果就是在金磚國(guó)家中占有一席之地，前提是他們表現(xiàn)得友好，而且至少是真心實(shí)意。
I’m American and people here with a brain realize the mainstream media shamelessly promotes propaganda. Knowing that, when the US media continually demonizes Russia, it’s obvious there is an ulterior motive at play. The true enemy of the world is globalism.
我是美國(guó)人，有腦子的人都知道主流媒體厚顏無(wú)恥地進(jìn)行宣傳。要知道，當(dāng)美國(guó)媒體不斷妖魔化俄羅斯時(shí)，顯然他們別有用心。世界的真正敵人是全球化。
Even if some American citizens
(mainly the heavily brainwashed ) will not like it or agree with the true ,I would say it out loud : the US is just not a trustworthy business partner .It has a long tracking record of breaking promises and backtracking sign agreaments .I hope Russia threats them with extreme caution .
即使一些美國(guó)公民（主要是被嚴(yán)重洗腦的人）不喜歡或者不同意這一事實(shí)，我還是會(huì)大聲說(shuō)出來(lái)：美國(guó)不是一個(gè)值得信賴的商業(yè)伙伴。它長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直不履行承諾，不履行已簽署的協(xié)議。我希望俄羅斯在威脅他們時(shí)要極其謹(jǐn)慎。
Russia knows not and never to totally trust the backstab war-criminal loser america. This capitulation by the yanks is only a temporary bandaid since all their wanky sanctions failed (backfired), dedollarization is on the rise and Russia this US-led proxy hybrid war won on all fronts.
俄羅斯不會(huì)也永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)完全相信背叛戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)罪犯的失敗者美國(guó)。美國(guó)佬的這次投降只是暫時(shí)的權(quán)宜之計(jì)，因?yàn)樗麄兯械闹撇枚际×耍ㄟm得其反），去美元化正在興起，而俄羅斯在這場(chǎng)由美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的代理混合戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中贏得了所有戰(zhàn)線。
Russia Should Ask Trump about his support of ISIS in Syria
俄羅斯應(yīng)該詢問(wèn)特朗普對(duì)敘利亞 ISIS 的支持情況
Russian-US talks is a sign that Russians put a healthy fear of God into the American establishment, who suddenly no longer seems as suicidal in their mission to please the Jews who initiated the proxy war on Russia in response to Russian support for Syria.
俄美會(huì)談表明俄羅斯讓美國(guó)當(dāng)權(quán)者產(chǎn)生了對(duì)上帝的敬畏，而美國(guó)當(dāng)權(quán)者突然不再像以前那樣為了取悅猶太人而采取自殺式行動(dòng)，而猶太人因俄羅斯支持?jǐn)⒗麃喍鴮?duì)俄羅斯發(fā)動(dòng)了代理人戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
Russia needs to create a ?BRICS Grain Exchange? and an international metal exchange.
俄羅斯需要建立“金磚國(guó)家谷物交易所”和國(guó)際金屬交易所。
The US is trying to get out before the roof caves in—-like in Afghanistan, like in VietNam
美國(guó)正試圖在屋頂塌陷之前撤出——就像在阿富汗、越南一樣
Remember when it was the conservatives in the US pushing the cold war ?Domino Theory? that the then USSR was going to take over (like dominos falling) one country at a time? That justified hard liners, bomb stockpile races, and fueled the mil-indus-govt compound of lobbyists for years. But here’s the important part. AT ONE TIME THE US LIBERALS REJECTED it ALL, poking fun at the conservatives, and wanted something quite different of peace with Russia. Now what is Trump? An old guy of the TAIL of that era. The DEMOCRAT guy from genuine Democrat NYC who voted and partied as best friends with the Clintons. How Ironic that today’s liberals fight the one guy born of the era of liberals that called for peace with Russia eh?
還記得當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)保守派推動(dòng)冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期的“多米諾骨牌理論”嗎？當(dāng)時(shí)的蘇聯(lián)將像倒下的多米諾骨牌一樣一個(gè)接一個(gè)地接管一個(gè)國(guó)家。這為強(qiáng)硬派、核彈儲(chǔ)備競(jìng)賽提供了理由，并多年來(lái)為軍工企業(yè)和政府的游說(shuō)團(tuán)提供了動(dòng)力。但重要的是，美國(guó)自由派曾一度拒絕一切，嘲笑保守派，并希望與俄羅斯實(shí)現(xiàn)完全不同的和平。那么特朗普是什么呢？他是那個(gè)時(shí)代反派的老家伙。來(lái)自紐約的民主黨人，他投票和參加派對(duì)都是克林頓夫婦最好的朋友。今天的自由派與一個(gè)出生于自由派時(shí)代、呼吁與俄羅斯和平的人作斗爭(zhēng)，這真是諷刺，不是嗎？
Thr soviets were bankrolling the Democrat party so of course they were soft on the soviets. The soviets are also largely responsible for the monster the American left has become.
蘇聯(lián)為民主黨提供資金，因此他們當(dāng)然對(duì)蘇聯(lián)態(tài)度軟弱。蘇聯(lián)也對(duì)美國(guó)左派變成怪物負(fù)有很大責(zé)任。
America’s needs to pull their heads in. They haven’t got the industrial base anymore, its in china. They sold out along with most of the west, for cheap labour. They all know they can’t maintain war for long with Russia and China.
Time for the collective west to face the reality on the ground. As putin would say
美國(guó)需要冷靜下來(lái)。他們不再擁有工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，而是在中國(guó)。他們和大多數(shù)西方國(guó)家一樣，為了廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力而出賣了自己。他們都知道他們無(wú)法與俄羅斯和中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期保持戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
是時(shí)候讓西方國(guó)家面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)了。正如普京所說(shuō)
The shift in relations between Russia and the US may open a door for a more balanced multipolar system
Everyone knows very well that the US mood changes with each president and Trump is only there for 1460 DAYS.
It is with considerable caution that any deal with profound changes to the US’ s historical and usual bullying behavior should be considered and/or made.
Regardless, the obvious dramatic change in attitude and strategy must be encouraged and even taken advantage of while taking precautions for any abrupt change either forced by the US congress of its Elites.
With the US, NOTHING is ever as it seems or long term !
俄美關(guān)系的轉(zhuǎn)變可能為更加平衡的多極體系打開(kāi)大門(mén)。
大家都知道，美國(guó)的情緒會(huì)隨著每任總統(tǒng)而變化，而特朗普在任只有 1460 天。
任何涉及深刻改變美國(guó)歷史和慣常欺凌行為的協(xié)議都應(yīng)經(jīng)過(guò)慎重考慮和/或達(dá)成。
無(wú)論如何，必須鼓勵(lì)甚至利用態(tài)度和戰(zhàn)略上明顯的巨大變化，同時(shí)采取預(yù)防措施，以防美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)或精英階層強(qiáng)迫發(fā)生任何突然變化。
對(duì)于美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，沒(méi)有什么事情是表面看起來(lái)的那樣或長(zhǎng)期的！
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
No talk of stolen assets and cancel-culture ?
沒(méi)有談?wù)摫槐I資產(chǎn)和取消文化？
Since 99% of US politicians are under the control of AIPEC (e.g. Jews/ZIONISTS) it is not really a talk-festival between Russia but more like ISRAEL and Russia.
Russia would be very foolish to trust ZIONISTS
由于 99% 的美國(guó)政客都受到 AIPEC（例如猶太人/猶太復(fù)國(guó)主義者）的控制，因此這實(shí)際上并不是俄羅斯之間的空談，而更像是以色列和俄羅斯之間的空談。
俄羅斯如果信任猶太復(fù)國(guó)主義者，那就太愚蠢了
I am not Putin but i would have been more cold to Trump and i wouldn’t have acknowledge Musk ,
diplomacy is always good but i think it would have been better to make Americans belly dance some more….
just a thought
我不是普京，但我對(duì)特朗普會(huì)更冷淡，也不會(huì)承認(rèn)馬斯克，
外交總是好的，但我認(rèn)為讓美國(guó)人多跳點(diǎn)肚皮舞會(huì)更好……
只是一個(gè)想法
It is a strategy to weaken China but RUSSIA CHINA partnership is tight.
這是削弱中國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略，但俄中伙伴關(guān)系緊密。
Western led institutions are not, and never were multilateral. There can be no return to them by Russia unless they are totally de-politicized, neutral, and Russia has some level of control over what goes on there.
西方主導(dǎo)的機(jī)構(gòu)不是多邊機(jī)構(gòu)，也從來(lái)不是多邊機(jī)構(gòu)。除非這些機(jī)構(gòu)完全去政治化、保持中立，并且俄羅斯對(duì)那里發(fā)生的事情有一定程度的控制權(quán)，否則俄羅斯不可能重返這些機(jī)構(gòu)。
Now that US and Russia are friends, will the US have a free hand to take Greenland, Panama and Canada? Is there going to be tacit Russian approval?
現(xiàn)在美俄是朋友，美國(guó)可以隨心所欲地占領(lǐng)格陵蘭、巴拿馬和加拿大嗎？俄羅斯會(huì)默許嗎？
…the only ones U.S./Russia talks aren’t good for is the cocaine addicted Ukrainian dictator Zelensky and those who are especially fond of possibly being turned into radioactive glass.
...美俄會(huì)談唯一不利于的是吸食可卡因的烏克蘭DC者澤連斯基和那些特別喜歡被變成放射性玻璃的人。
Eu leaders also should consider meeting with President Putin and sort out any issues they have and realize that Russia is not a threat to the EU and save themselves a lot of angst and money for military purposes, they don’t have.
歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人還應(yīng)該考慮與普京總統(tǒng)會(huì)面，解決他們之間的任何問(wèn)題，并認(rèn)識(shí)到俄羅斯對(duì)歐盟并不構(gòu)成威脅，從而可以節(jié)省大量的軍事成本和金錢(qián)。
Well said. As an African, this presents an opportunity to finally balance our interests in the coming multi polar World
說(shuō)得好。作為一名非洲人，這為我們?cè)诩磳⒌絹?lái)的多極世界中最終平衡我們的利益提供了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)
Russia has a good reputation and should avoid doing anything with the US. There is an old saying that you will be judged by the friends you keep. Russia is already committed to Israel’s GENO.... and that makes Russia just damn EVIL!! And with courting the US for some political crumbs verifies the dark side of Russia.
俄羅斯聲譽(yù)良好，應(yīng)該避免與美國(guó)做任何事情。有句老話說(shuō)，你交的朋友會(huì)評(píng)判你。俄羅斯已經(jīng)參與了以色列的種族滅絕，這讓俄羅斯變得非常邪惡！！為了政治利益而向美國(guó)獻(xiàn)媚，證實(shí)了俄羅斯的陰暗面。
Now that the US has started talks with Russia, it should do the same with China.
But it won’t because it fears China more than it fears Russia – economically more than militarily, and still maintains the delusion of ‘defeating’ it!
I, like most people, suspect that it wants to try and draw Russia away from China – that is the main reason for the improved relationship.
既然美國(guó)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始與俄羅斯談判，它應(yīng)該與中國(guó)也展開(kāi)談判。
但它不會(huì)這樣做，因?yàn)樗鼘?duì)中國(guó)的恐懼遠(yuǎn)大于對(duì)俄羅斯的恐懼——經(jīng)濟(jì)上的恐懼大于軍事上的恐懼，而且它仍然抱有“打敗”俄羅斯的幻想！
我和大多數(shù)人一樣，懷疑它想把俄羅斯從中國(guó)拉開(kāi)——這是兩國(guó)關(guān)系改善的主要原因。