精釀啤酒、可口可樂先遭殃，美國人將為加征鋼鋁關(guān)稅付出高昂代價
Why Aluminum Tariffs May Be Pricey For Americans
譯文簡介
鋁是一種對美國國防、交通和能源系統(tǒng)至關(guān)重要的礦物。鋁的生產(chǎn)需要大量電力，通常發(fā)生在中國、俄羅斯、印度和加拿大。2025年3月，特朗普政府對所有進入美國的鋁產(chǎn)品征收了25%的關(guān)稅。包括鋁業(yè)公司Alcoa、福特汽車、可口可樂和洛克希德·馬丁在內(nèi)的公司可能面臨更高的生產(chǎn)成本。但由于鋁的生產(chǎn)需要大量電力，因此其回歸可能需要時間
正文翻譯
Aluminum is a critical mineral used in American defense, transportation and energy systems. Producing aluminum requires large amounts of electricity, and typically occurs in China, Russia, India and Canada. In March 2025, the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on all aluminum entering the United States. Companies including Alcoa, Ford, Coca-Cola and Lockheed Martin could face higher input costs. But aluminum production's return may take time due to high demand for the electricity required to process the metal.
鋁是一種對美國國防、交通和能源系統(tǒng)至關(guān)重要的礦物。鋁的生產(chǎn)需要大量電力，通常發(fā)生在中國、俄羅斯、印度和加拿大。2025年3月，特朗普政府對所有進入美國的鋁產(chǎn)品征收了25%的關(guān)稅。包括鋁業(yè)公司Alcoa、福特汽車、可口可樂和洛克希德·馬丁在內(nèi)的公司可能面臨更高的生產(chǎn)成本。但由于鋁的生產(chǎn)需要大量電力，因此其回歸可能需要時間
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Key point that was glanced over here: "Coca Cola saying it plans to sell more soda in plastic bottles." Who benefits from increased plastic consumption? Fossil fuel companies, as most plastic is derived from oil. Plastic is MUCH harder to recycle and gets recycled by consumers less often, meaning a steady stream of increased demand for new plastic from fossil fuels
這里略過的一個關(guān)鍵點是：“可口可樂表示計劃在塑料瓶中銷售更多的飲料。”誰從塑料消費的增加中受益？化石燃料公司，因為大多數(shù)塑料是由石油衍生的。塑料的回收利用更為困難，消費者回收的頻率較低，這意味著對來自化石燃料的新塑料的需求將穩(wěn)定增長。
At 4 cents a kilowatt in Quebec, it's way more economically profitable to produce there !! Plus the electricity comes from a renewable source !
在魁北克，每千瓦時電費僅為4美分，在那里生產(chǎn)鋁更加經(jīng)濟！而且電力來自可再生能源！
It's astonishing that people still don't understand that a tariff is an import tax that THEY will be paying for!
令人驚訝的是，人們?nèi)匀徊焕斫怅P(guān)稅是一種進口稅，他們最終要為此買單！
Many countries around the world could only dream of having a great neighbour like Canada.
世界上許多國家只能夢想擁有像加拿大這樣偉大的鄰國。
8:42 "The US is still one of the best places in the world to produce primary aluminum." That is simply a false statement. In order to produce primary aluminum you need large amounts of super inexpensive electricity. The reason Canada produces so much primary aluminum is that one of our provinces, Quebec has a large surplus of inexpensive hydroelectric power giving it the lowest electricity prices in North America. No source of electricity has a lower cost than hydro power and the US simply does not have enough places it could build additional dams.
8:42 “美國仍然是全球生產(chǎn)初級鋁的最佳地方之一?！?這簡直是錯誤的說法。要生產(chǎn)初級鋁，你需要大量廉價的電力。加拿大能生產(chǎn)如此多的初級鋁的原因是，我們的一個省份——魁北克擁有大量廉價的水力發(fā)電，電費在北美最低。沒有任何電力來源能比水電更便宜，而美國根本沒有足夠的地方建造更多的水壩。
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Because America likes cheap labor and cheap products. If they have to manufacture it themselves, the price will go up.
因為美國喜歡廉價勞動力和廉價產(chǎn)品。如果他們必須自己制造，價格就會上漲。
I worked at an Alcoa smelter that closed in 2020. It just came down to power. We used enough power for a medium city. Canada has a lot of dams in places where they have few customers, China built a huge number of power plants.
我曾在一個2020年關(guān)閉的鋁土礦冶煉廠工作。這完全取決于電力。我們用的電力足夠一個中等規(guī)模的城市。加拿大有很多大壩，建在一些顧客很少的地方，而中國建了大量的電廠。
Simply speaking it won't cut down aluminum export from canada... Its a new way to collect more tax from American consumers.
簡單來說，這不會減少加拿大的鋁出口……這只是一個從美國消費者那里收更多稅的新方式。
So Boeing planes made in the US will take 20% aluminum tariffs while Airbus planes won’t. Oof… I wonder how this will go?
所以美國制造的波音飛機將面臨20%的鋁關(guān)稅，而空客飛機則不會。哎……我不知道這會怎么發(fā)展？
Americans throw out aluminum cans?! It's the most recyclable metal. That's idiocracy.
美國人會扔掉鋁罐？！它是最容易回收的金屬。這真是愚蠢。
The last go-around vis a vis steel, 10K+ US jobs were created but 75K+ US jobs were destroyed
上一次與鋼鐵的爭斗中，創(chuàng)造了10,000多個美國工作崗位，但摧毀了超過75,000個美國工作崗位。
Building a new aluminum smelter in the U.S. typically takes 5 to 10 years. It’s more efficient to get it from countries that have cheap electricity.
在美國建一個新的鋁冶煉廠通常需要5到10年。更高效的方法是從那些電力便宜的國家獲取。
And 3 of the 9 aluminum refiners in Canada are 100% owned by Alcoa so, you're hurting a US company who is supplying alum to the US. They are taking advantage of the low cost hydro electricity in Canada so, if they move operations to the old shuttered US alum plants it will just cost more to produce (likely using nuclear or coal generated power.)
而且加拿大9家鋁冶煉廠中的3家是100%由阿爾科亞擁有的，所以你實際上是在傷害一家向美國供應鋁的美國公司。他們利用加拿大廉價的水力電力，所以如果他們將業(yè)務轉(zhuǎn)移到那些已經(jīng)關(guān)閉的美國鋁廠，生產(chǎn)成本就會更高（可能會使用核能或煤炭發(fā)電）。
I think what many people don't understand is that Canada can trade with many countries. That's called competition! Why would someone build a factory in the US when they can sell their steel and other products to the rest of the world? And it takes quite a long time to build the infrastructure for a factory. And then a factory also needs skilled workers. And that alone can be a cause of failure, given the educational level in the States...
我認為很多人不了解的是，加拿大可以與許多國家進行貿(mào)易。這叫做競爭！為什么有人要在美國建廠，而不是將鋼鐵和其他產(chǎn)品賣給全世界？而且建廠需要相當長的時間來建立基礎設施。然后，工廠還需要熟練的工人。僅這一點就可能導致失敗，因為美國的教育水平問題...
Aluminum is made throughout Canada because energy prices are some of the lowest in the world. It is really hard to count, but we have over 8,500 rivers, each with a vast amount of tributaries, or to put it simply, endless stupid cheap hydroelectricity. It's so cheap that I pay only $25 a month for electricity in my Vancouver apartment. That's not counting all of our uranium, natural gas, oil, coal, wind, geothermal areas, and extreme tides. The scary part is that we've barely scratched the surface for our energy potential as a nation. We're basically a giant battery.
鋁在加拿大生產(chǎn)，因為能源價格是世界上最低的之一。很難統(tǒng)計，但我們有超過8500條河流，每條河流都有大量支流，簡而言之，就是無窮無盡的廉價水電。便宜到我在溫哥華公寓里每月只需支付25美元的電費。這還不包括我們所有的鈾、天然氣、石油、煤炭、風能、地熱資源和極端潮汐?？膳碌氖?，我們作為一個國家，幾乎還沒有開發(fā)我們能源的全部潛力。我們基本上是一個巨大的電池。
Targeted tariffs really only work if you have spare capacity in your own country, potentially with closures and jobs on the line. Even if America maximised their current production, it wont make a dent in required imports. It would take ten years to build new production plants and the power stations required. Until then, the tariff is shooting yourself in the foot.
針對性關(guān)稅只有在你自己的國家有備用產(chǎn)能的情況下才有效，這可能會導致關(guān)閉工廠和失業(yè)。即使美國最大限度地提高當前的生產(chǎn)能力，也無法減少所需的進口量。建造新的生產(chǎn)廠和電站需要十年時間。在此之前，關(guān)稅只是在自傷。
Just what we need, another increase in house prices. This administration has lost all sense of reality. It’s all about a personal agenda now instead of serving the people. Just look at people like Musk.
我們需要的正是再一次房價上漲。這屆政府已經(jīng)完全失去了現(xiàn)實感?，F(xiàn)在一切都只是個人議程，而不是為人民服務?？纯聪耨R斯克這樣的人。
If america cannot produce enough aluminium how does an import tax on americans reduce prices like trump says?
如果美國無法生產(chǎn)足夠的鋁，為什么像特朗普說的那樣，征收進口稅能降低美國國內(nèi)的價格？
Canada needs to focus on trade with Europe and Asia. The US has taken Canada for a ride for way too long and now it will drag us down with it.
加拿大需要專注于與歐洲和亞洲的貿(mào)易。美國已經(jīng)長期利用加拿大，現(xiàn)在它將把我們一起拖下水。
so your country has only 4 aluminium plants that are operationnal, and one of them is in a town extremely close to the canadian border in a state that needs electric power from Ontario and Quebec because they are not self sufficiant ... it's ok apparently you don't need anything from Canada, except if we cut the power cord you will down to 3 alumnium plant
所以你的國家只有4個鋁廠在運營，其中一個位于一個非常靠近加拿大邊境的小鎮(zhèn)，而這個州需要從安大略省和魁北克省獲得電力，因為他們自身無法自給自足……看來你們似乎不需要加拿大的任何東西，除非我們切斷電力供應，否則你們將只剩下3個鋁廠。
The US needs an aluminum strategic reserve and not a useless stock pile of imaginary internet money
美國需要一個鋁戰(zhàn)略儲備，而不是一個無用的虛擬貨幣庫存。
The tarriff plan will evidently lead to high inflation, the high inflation is a significant reason why most retirees have sleepless nights. The increase in prices of everyday items puts them at risk of running out of money. As prices rise, the amount of money retirees can withdraw from their retirement savings also increases.
關(guān)稅計劃顯然會導致高通脹，而高通脹是大多數(shù)退休人員失眠的一個重要原因。日常商品價格的上漲讓他們面臨用完退休金的風險。隨著物價上漲，退休人員從退休儲蓄中可以提取的錢也在增加。
Rump thinks someone is going to push a button and all these factories will suddenly appear and start production in one day. Just like he can stop inflation in one day.
特朗普認為有人會按下一個按鈕，所有這些工廠就會在一天之內(nèi)突然開始生產(chǎn)。就像他能在一天之內(nèi)停止通脹一樣。
Remember Americans this specific tariff will effectively be permanent inflation.
記住，美國人，這個特定的關(guān)稅將有效地導致永久性的通脹。
Not Canadas problem. Stop all trade with America.
這不是加拿大的問題。停止與美國的所有貿(mào)易。
Yes Canadian here and not sure how tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum will help the US. I guess the choice is try to buy it from another country or have American manufacturers and inevitably the American consumer pay for it. Doesn’t sound like sound economics to me
我是加拿大人，不太明白對加拿大鋼鐵和鋁的關(guān)稅對美國有什么幫助。我猜要么嘗試從其他國家購買，要么讓美國制造商和最終消費者為此買單。這聽起來不像是明智的經(jīng)濟政策。
Canada's aluminum is cheaper because Quebec is blessed with geography that allows abundunt affordable hydroelectricity. Without it smelters must use more expensive fossil generated electricity. America simply can't compete in this sector.
加拿大的鋁便宜，因為魁北克得天獨厚，擁有充足且便宜的水力發(fā)電。如果沒有這些，冶煉廠就不得不使用更貴的化石燃料發(fā)電。美國在這個領域根本無法競爭。
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To put how much power an Aluminum plant can use in New Zealand we have 1 Aluminum plant the Tiwai Point aluminum smelter. It currently uses 13% of our countries power production and our country has over 5 million people.
為了說明鋁廠消耗的電力，新西蘭只有一個鋁廠——提瓦伊點（Tiwai Point）鋁冶煉廠。它目前使用了我們國家13%的電力，而我們國家的總?cè)丝诔^500萬。
Scrap prices are up , not at the all time high yet but higher than the past decade for aluminum.
鋁的廢料價格上漲了，雖然還沒有達到歷史最高水平，但比過去十年的價格要高。
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Hard to compete with Aluminum produced from low priced hydro electricity
A bit like trying to grow coffee in the US.
There are sound reasons for Trade everybody benefits
I have a trade deficit with my local grocery store, but I can't bake bread at home for a few dollars if factoring in inputs & my time.
很難與利用低價水電生產(chǎn)的鋁競爭，稍微有點像試圖在美國種咖啡。貿(mào)易有其合理性，大家都能從中受益。我和本地雜貨店有貿(mào)易逆差，但如果考慮到原材料和我的時間，自己在家烤面包可做不到幾美元。
Producing aluminum from scratch, meaning from bauxite ore is very energy intensive process. According to one estimate producing one tone of primary aluminum requires around 13,000 to 17,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity.
從頭開始生產(chǎn)鋁，即從鋁土礦中提取，是一個非常耗能的過程。據(jù)估計，生產(chǎn)一噸初級鋁大約需要13,000到17,000千瓦時（kWh）的電力。
The US has a limited resource of Bauxite available (the mineral used to make Aluminum). The Bauxite mined in the US is mainly used to make fracking fluid and abrasives like sand paper and grinding wheels.
美國的鋁土礦資源有限（鋁的主要原料）。美國開采的鋁土礦主要用于生產(chǎn)壓裂液和像砂紙、磨輪這樣的磨料。
Similar situation for the logging industry. US has forest, about 20% of Canadian ones. These are located in more densely populated area, with 10x more tree-huggers. A large proportion of the US forests are private, and the current logging industry is in relative equilibrium with their renewal capacity. It takes about 100 years to regrow the forest. Apply the logging intensity of the Canadian industry to the US national forest, and they would be shaved in 20 years or so... Furthermore, to make lumbers, you also need sawmills, which US do not have in sufficient numbers (already shipping logs to Canada), as well as trained lumberjacts, logging machinery and forest engineers.... And this will need a decade to built... Good luck.
木材工業(yè)也面臨類似的情況。美國有森林，約為加拿大森林的20%。這些森林位于人口密集的地區(qū)，樹木保護者比加拿大多10倍。美國的大部分森林是私人擁有的，目前的伐木行業(yè)與森林的再生能力保持相對平衡。森林重生大約需要100年。如果將加拿大行業(yè)的伐木強度應用于美國的國家森林，可能在20年左右就會被砍光……此外，制造木材還需要鋸木廠，而美國的鋸木廠數(shù)量不足（已經(jīng)開始將木材運往加拿大），還需要訓練有素的伐木工人、伐木機械和森林工程師……而這些都需要十年才能建成……祝好運。
Aluminum is basically congealed electricity.
The US doesn't produce enough of that at a low enough price.
As a matter of fact, America relies on Canadian electricity from coast to coast where the tariffed aluminum comes from.
鋁基本上是凝固的電力。美國生產(chǎn)的電力不足，價格也不夠低。事實上，美國依賴從加拿大進口的電力，鋁的關(guān)稅正是來自這些地區(qū)。
Re aluminium manufacturing in the UK -we had a plant right next door to one of our nuclear power stations. When that power station closed, the aluminium plant closed. You have to have a LOT of power available.
關(guān)于英國的鋁制造——我們曾有一家鋁廠就在我們的核電站旁邊。當那座核電站關(guān)閉時，鋁廠也關(guān)閉了。你必須有大量的電力供應才能進行鋁制造。
The last time I vacationed on the Oregon coast it was impossible to find recycling bins at any roadside public places, yet Oregon sees itself as the greenest state.
上次我在俄勒岡海岸度假時，幾乎在任何公共路邊地方都找不到回收箱，但俄勒岡州自認為是最環(huán)保的州。
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Ya let’s make it more expensive for the average American. Tariffs are paid by consumers.
是的，讓普通美國人更難負擔得起。關(guān)稅最終是由消費者支付的。
Never mind. The US can always melt some Tesla's & recycle their aluminium. Like Canada, where we live in Australia, aluminium is produced effectively & at excellent quality. The US is now locked into an economic death spiral of its own making. The only downside is they want to drag Commonwealth nations with them. The sooner Canada, the UK, Ireland, Australia & NZ separate themselves from anything American, the better off we will all be (for our own sanity if nothing else!).
算了。美國總是可以融化一些特斯拉車，回收它們的鋁。就像加拿大一樣，我們生活在澳大利亞，鋁的生產(chǎn)既高效又質(zhì)量優(yōu)良。美國現(xiàn)在陷入了自己造成的經(jīng)濟死亡螺旋。唯一的缺點是他們想把英聯(lián)邦國家也拖下水。加拿大、英國、愛爾蘭、澳大利亞和新西蘭越早與美國分離，對我們所有人來說就越好（至少在精神上能好一些?。?/b>
The average car built uses about 500lb. of aluminum. At $1.27/lb. that's $635 per car. A 25% tariff paid by the manufacturer would be $159. If the car is built for $20k and the eventual retail price is $40k, the consumer pays an additional $318 on the car.
一輛普通的汽車大約使用500磅鋁。每磅1.27美元的話，就是635美元。制造商需支付25%的關(guān)稅，約為159美元。如果汽車的生產(chǎn)成本是2萬美元，最終零售價是4萬美元，那么消費者需額外支付318美元。
That Aluminum Smelter use alot of electricity. The 1 in 4 smelter in Massena, New York sit on the border and is probably pulling all it power from Canada.
鋁冶煉廠需要大量電力。位于紐約馬塞納的一個鋁冶煉廠就坐落在邊境，可能完全依賴加拿大的電力。
It's not just consumers - it makes American exporters less competitive against their international counterparts who aren't subject to 25% extra costs for aluminum... Boeing, Pepsi, Ford, etc. anything with aluminum in it just drove up American exports 25% ...
不僅僅是消費者——這還讓美國的出口商在與國際競爭對手的競爭中處于不利地位，因為他們不需要支付25%的鋁關(guān)稅……波音、百事可樂、福特等公司，任何使用鋁的產(chǎn)品，美國的出口成本都增加了25%。
I grew up in Wenatchee WA. There was (maybe still is) a very large aluminum plant outside of town literally directly connected to a hydroelectric dam. All through my school-years it was constantly starting up and being mothballed depending on fluctuations in aluminum pricing. It employed a lot of people from the town. Seems like this might be a good time to fire it up again if it's still there.
我在華盛頓州的溫那契長大。鎮(zhèn)外有一個非常大的鋁廠，直接與水力發(fā)電大壩相連。在我整個上學期間，它一直在根據(jù)鋁價波動不斷啟動和停工。它雇用了鎮(zhèn)上的很多人。如果它還在的話，現(xiàn)在可能是重新啟動它的好時機。
Trump's argument about secure sources of aluminum is understandable. However, he then makes a ridiculous 2 part argument that: 1) Canadian aluminum is a threat, and 2) Canada is the 51st state. If Canada is already the 51st state, then you've got yourself a secure, domestic supplier of aluminum. Yet, you apply a tarrif on aluminum from your own 51st state? This is just taxation on Americans then.
特朗普關(guān)于鋁的安全供應源的論點可以理解。然而，他接著提出了一個荒謬的兩部分論點：1) 加拿大鋁是一個威脅，2) 加拿大是第51個州。如果加拿大已經(jīng)是第51個州，那么你就有了一個安全的國內(nèi)鋁供應商。那么你為什么還要對來自自己第51個州的鋁征收關(guān)稅呢？這實際上就是對美國人征稅。
Here in Spokane, we have unused and underutilized smelters. We are plugged into the Grand Coulee Dam and have access to energy. Spokane has at least a little room for increased productivity.
在斯波坎，我們有一些未被利用的鋁冶煉廠。我們接入了大科盧水壩并且有能源供應。斯波坎至少有一些空間來提高生產(chǎn)力。
I honestly knew that once markets really grasps that Trump is serious about tariffs, it’s going to hit hard. If the US cuts itself off from global trade, that isolationism is going to send shockwaves
我算知道了，一旦市場真正理解特朗普對關(guān)稅的堅定態(tài)度，它將會造成巨大沖擊。如果美國切斷與全球貿(mào)易的聯(lián)系，這種孤立主義將會產(chǎn)生震動。
There are no plans for new aluminum or steel plants, or oil refineries in the USA. What company wants to invest a billion USD in a plant in these unsure times with America very very close to being a fascist state. You can Drill baby drill, and mine all the steel you want, but with not new plants and refineries built. it just sits there. Steel companies will never do that. An oil refinery can take 10 to 20 years to build and a steel plant can take 5 to 10 years to build... depending on the infrastructure, and permits needed etc. Of course trump knows none of this, and how all this will affect Exports, which made America great. All he knows is he will have trillions of usd he can spend or give away as he wishes.. That money is YOUR money you paid on each item you buy. This is how the Great Depression happened, and ultimately WW2
美國沒有新建鋁廠、鋼鐵廠或石油煉油廠的計劃。在這種不確定的時期，哪家公司愿意投資10億美元建廠？美國離成為一個法西斯國家已經(jīng)非常非常接近了。你可以說“鉆探寶貝，鉆探”，你可以挖掘所有的鋼鐵，但如果沒有新建的廠和煉油廠，這些資源就只是閑置在那里。鋼鐵公司永遠不會這么做。建設一個石油煉油廠可能需要10到20年，而鋼鐵廠需要5到10年，具體取決于所需的基礎設施和許可證等等。當然特朗普對此一無所知，也不了解這將如何影響出口，而出口曾使美國偉大。他只知道他將有數(shù)萬億美元可以隨意花費或分配……而這些錢就是你花在每一件商品上的錢。這就是大蕭條發(fā)生的原因，最終導致了第二次世界大戰(zhàn)。
Aluminum is as close to solid electricty as you can get.
鋁幾乎可以說是最接近電力的實體物質(zhì)。
These tariffs don't make any sense whatsoever and they only serve to raise the price that we pay for those products. The fake reasoning that in the long term it will bring back manufacturing back to the U.S. is NOT that simple, especially with the investment needed to fund and construct those manufacturing plants here. These blanket tariffs are a national disgrace that too many people are going along with, or are not speaking out against.
這些關(guān)稅根本沒有任何意義，它們只會抬高我們?yōu)檫@些產(chǎn)品支付的價格。所謂長期內(nèi)會將制造業(yè)帶回美國的理由根本不簡單，尤其是考慮到需要大量投資來資助和建設這些制造廠。這樣的普遍性關(guān)稅是國家的恥辱，太多人要么跟風，要么沒有發(fā)聲反對。
There is a reason why Trump jokes about Canada becoming a 51state. Canada has a lot of raw material plus an abundance of cheap energy, that combination is hard to resist……….but unfortunately for America that will never happen and fortunately for Canada the future looks pretty bright!
特朗普開玩笑說加拿大要成為第51個州是有原因的。加拿大擁有大量的原材料和豐富的廉價能源，這種組合確實很有吸引力……但不幸的是，對美國來說這永遠不會發(fā)生，幸運的是，對加拿大來說，未來看起來相當光明！
The world fighting back against tariffs is the same as the world fighting against new taxes for Americans. It is the American that pay the tariffs.
世界反擊關(guān)稅就像美國人反對新稅一樣。最終，付關(guān)稅的是美國人。
Aluminum is basically the same as Electricity. So, in order to produce more cheaper Aluminum you need a lot of cheap Electricity. Hydro and Nuclear has been the cheapest electricity plants for many decades. So any country which has a surplus of those could supply cheaper Aluminum.
鋁基本上與電力類似。因此，要生產(chǎn)更多便宜的鋁，你需要大量便宜的電力。水力和核能幾十年來一直是最便宜的電力來源。因此，任何擁有這些能源盈余的國家都可以提供更便宜的鋁。