《Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs will go into effect immediately, White House says》

《白宮宣布特朗普“解放日”關稅即刻生效》


President Donald Trump’s promised tariffs are a day away – and they’ll go into effect sooner than some had expected. As in, immediately, the White House said Tuesday.

美國總統(tǒng)特朗普力推的關稅政策即將落地——且實施速度遠超外界預期。美國白宮周二表示，這些關稅將立即生效。

Although many details remain unknown, perhaps even to Trump himself, the administration’s “Liberation Day” trade policy announcement is expected to be the most aggressive tariff move yet by the most tariff-obsessed president in modern history. Trump is meeting with his trade team Tuesday and the tariffs he announces at a Rose Garden ceremony at 4 pm ET Wednesday will go into effect “immediately,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday a press briefing.

盡管政策細節(jié)仍籠罩迷霧（或許連特朗普本人也未完全明晰），但特朗普政府這項被冠以"解放日"之名的貿易政策，將標志著現代史上最癡迷關稅的總統(tǒng)將發(fā)起任內最激進的貿易行動。白宮新聞秘書卡羅琳·萊維特周二的新聞發(fā)布會上證實，特朗普將于周二與其貿易團隊會面，并在周三下午4點（東部時間）于玫瑰園舉行的儀式上宣布關稅，這些關稅將“立即”生效。

Trump has vowed to aggressively slap tariffs on US imports as a catch-all solution to almost any problem. And the president has kept his promise — so much so that it’s freaking out investors, economists, CEOs and a growing segment of the population who fear the import taxes will do more harm than good.

特朗普始終將加征進口關稅視為解決幾乎所有問題的"萬能藥"，這一執(zhí)念已引發(fā)投資者、經濟學家、企業(yè)高管及日益增多的民眾群體恐慌，他們警告此類稅收弊大于利。

But Trump’s tariff efforts so far might pale in comparison to what’s coming next.

然而與即將出臺的政策相比，特朗普過往的關稅措施或將黯然失色。

Trump told reporters late Monday that he’d “settled” on a plan for sweeping new tariffs to be announced midweek, catching some White House officials by surprise: If the president had indeed arrived at a final decision for the tariffs, it hadn’t yet been widely shared inside the building.

特朗普周一晚些時候告訴記者，他已經"敲定"了一項計劃，將在本周中期宣布大規(guī)模的新關稅，這讓一些白宮官員感到意外：即便特朗普本人已做出最終決定，該方案尚未在白宮內部廣泛傳達。

Still unclear is whether Trump plans to levy individual tariff rates on all US trading partners; put tariffs on only some countries; or apply a universal tariff — perhaps as high as 20% — on all imports. Trump’s advisers are publicly supportive of Trump’s tariff agenda, but they differ in approach and scope behind the scenes.

目前仍不清楚特朗普計劃對所有貿易伙伴實施差別關稅，還是針對特定國家？抑或推行可能高達20%的普遍性關稅？盡管顧問團隊公開支持總統(tǒng)的關稅議程，但私下在具體方式與實施范圍上存在分歧。

A 20% universal tariff — combined with full retaliation from other nations on US goods — would be a “worst-case scenario” for the US economy, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN on Tuesday.

穆迪分析公司首席經濟學家馬克·贊迪在周二接受CNN采訪時表示，如果其他國家對美國商品進行全面報復，20%的普遍關稅將是美國經濟的“最壞情景”。

An economic ‘wipeout’
A Moody’s simulation found that such an escalation in the trade war would wipe out 5.5 million jobs, lift the unemployment rate to 7% and cause US GDP to drop by 1.7% from peak to trough.

經濟“徹底崩潰”
穆迪的模擬推演顯示，貿易戰(zhàn)的升級將導致550萬個工作崗位消失，失業(yè)率飆升至7%，，美國GDP將從經濟峰值下跌1.7%。

“If that happens, we get a serious recession. It’s a wipeout for the economy,” Zandi said, adding that he thinks Trump will announce a less extreme tariff regime to avoid such damage.

“如果發(fā)生這種情況，我們將面臨嚴重的經濟衰退。這將是對經濟的徹底打擊，”贊迪說，并補充稱，他認為特朗普或選擇相對溫和方案以規(guī)避災難。

Regardless of what Trump ultimately announces, all the proposals would likely be historic.

不管特朗普最終宣布什么，所有這些提案都可能成為歷史性事件。

“We’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unprecedented and radical,” said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank.

“我們從未見過如此激進的政策，這是前所未有的極端行動?！庇乙碇菐於悇栈饡摪疃愂照吒笨偛肊rica York表示。

While previous presidents have lobbed tariffs on steel, tires, electric vehicles or other goods, York said those actions are “nowhere close” to what Trump is setting the stage for on Wednesday.

約克指出，盡管往屆政府對鋼鐵、輪胎、電動汽車等特定商品征收過關稅，但與特朗普周三即將推出的計劃相比"根本不值一提"。

There are multiple ways Trump’s Liberation Day announcement could play out. One idea is that reciprocal tariffs would start first with the “Dirty 15,” or the 15% of nations that the United States has the biggest trade deficits with. That idea, suggested by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, would represent a massive escalation in the trade war.

此次特朗普的"解放日"關稅可能以多種形式呈現：其一是財長斯科特·貝森特提議的"骯臟15國"方案——針對占美國貿易逆差85%的15%國家實施對等關稅，這或將使貿易戰(zhàn)急劇升級。

Still, crucial details of the announcement remain unclear, including how high tariff rates will go and on which products.

不過，宣布的關鍵細節(jié)仍不明朗，包括關稅稅率的具體數額以及具體會對哪些產品征稅。

Tariffs on all $3.3 trillion of imports?
Trump has pushed back on tariffs on the “Dirty 15,” instead, throwing his weight behind something far broader.

針對所有3.3萬億美元的進口商品征稅？
特朗普推遲了"骯臟15國"方案，轉而支持更為廣泛的措施。

“You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens,” Trump said Sunday. “I haven’t heard a rumor about 15 countries, 10 or 15.”

特朗普周日表示：“應該從所有國家開始，我們拭目以待。我沒聽說過15國或10到15國的傳聞?！?/b>

That suggests Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs won’t be reciprocal as much as they will be universal, reviving a campaign promise (that alarmed economists) to put tariffs on all imports from all nations.

這意味著特朗普的“解放日”關稅不會像預期那樣是對等的，而更可能是普遍適用的，這重新提起了他曾令經濟學家不安的競選承諾，即對所有來自所有國家的進口商品征收關稅。

In other words, tariffs would be applied to roughly $3.3 trillion of imported goods, according to last year’s federal trade data.

換句話說，根據去年的聯邦貿易數據，這意味著約3.3萬億美元進口商品將面臨關稅。

This is miles away from what Trump did during his first term.

這與特朗普首任期措施天差地別。

During his entire first four years in the White House, Trump put tariffs on about $380 billion worth of imports, according to the Tax Foundation.

根據稅務基金會的統(tǒng)計，特朗普在其第一任期的四年里對約3800億美元的進口商品征收了關稅。

‘We haven’t seen a trade war like this since McKinley’
This round of tariffs would be nearly 10 times bigger in scope than what was done Trump’s first term, conjuring the protectionist policy of President William McKinley, who raised taxes on imports to about 50% in the 1890s.

“自麥金利以來，我們從未見過這樣的貿易戰(zhàn)”
本輪關稅規(guī)模較首任期擴大近十倍，令人想起1890年代威廉·麥金萊總統(tǒng)將進口稅提高至約50%的保護主義政策。

And Trump’s tariffs would be on top of the already very aggressive steps he has already taken this term.

而且新關稅將疊加于特朗普本屆任期已實施的激進措施。

Since taking office in January, Trump has increased tariffs on China by 20%, imposed limited 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and increased tariffs on steel and aluminum to 25%.

自1月上任以來，特朗普已對中國提高了20%的關稅，對加拿大和墨西哥實施了25%的有限關稅，并將鋼鐵和鋁的關稅提高到25%。

The Trump 2.0 tariffs impact more than $1 trillion of imports, more than twice as much as during his entire first term, according to the Tax Foundation. That could rise to $1.4 trillion in the coming days if exemptions for Canada and Mexico are allowed to expire.

稅務基金會統(tǒng)計顯示，"特朗普2.0"關稅已影響超1萬億美元進口商品，是首任期總量的兩倍多。如果加拿大和墨西哥的豁免期到期，該數字近日將攀升至1.4萬億美元。
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Trump has, so far at least, been undeterred by the growing concern across Main Street and Wall Street about his tariff strategy.

面對主街（譯者注：主街是經濟界人士的術語，指華爾街金融體系外的傳統(tǒng)產業(yè)經濟）與華爾街日益加劇的擔憂，特朗普迄今不為所動。

Consumer confidence has crumbled, unemployment fears have spiked, and inflation expectations have surged to multidecade highs.

消費者信心已崩潰，失業(yè)擔憂激增，通貨膨脹預期也飆升至數十年來的最高水平。

“It’s natural for people to expect higher prices because we haven’t seen a trade war like this since McKinley,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management.

B. Riley財富管理首席市場策略師阿特·霍根表示："民眾預期物價上漲很正常，畢竟自麥金萊時代后我們從未經歷這般貿易戰(zhàn)。"

Recession and stagflation fears
Ahead of Liberation Day, US stocks have dropped sharply as investors try to make sense of the confusing roll-out of the trade plan.

衰退與滯脹恐懼
"解放日"前夕，隨著投資者試圖厘清混亂的貿易計劃，美股大幅下挫。

“Tariff uncertainty has put an unexpected stranglehold on markets,” Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise’s chief market strategist, wrote in a report Monday.

Ameriprise首席市場策略師安東尼·薩格林本尼周一在報告中寫道："關稅的不確定性出乎意料地給市場帶來了束縛。"

Wall Street is increasingly worried that Trump’s trade plan will damage the US economy, potentially ending the economic expansion that started in 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic crash.

華爾街愈發(fā)擔憂該計劃將摧毀美國經濟，可能終結2020年疫情崩潰后開啟的經濟擴張。

“Does President Donald Trump want a recession? He is going to get one if he continues to pursue his chaotic tariff policies,” Ed Yardeni, president of investment strategy firm Yardeni Research, wrote in a report on Monday. “It’s really a shame that Trump is so willing to take a wrecking ball to the economy.”

投資策略公司Yardeni Research的總裁Ed Yardeni在周一的一份報告中寫道：“特朗普總統(tǒng)想要經濟衰退嗎？如果他繼續(xù)推行混亂的關稅政策，他必將得償所愿。”他還表示，“他如此肆意用關稅大錘砸向經濟，實在令人扼腕。”

Yardeni has raised his odds of a stagflation scenario — higher inflation and a possible “shallow” recession — to 45%, up from 35%.

Ed Yardeni已將滯脹情景（高通脹疊加潛在"輕度"衰退）的概率從35%上調至45%。。

Although Trump touted tariffs on the campaign trail, investors and economists have been caught off guard by how serious he is about them. Many had dismissed his tariff promises as a bluff or a negotiating tactic.

盡管特朗普在競選期間大肆鼓吹關稅，但其政策執(zhí)行力仍令投資者與經濟學家措手不及。許多人曾將其關稅承諾視為虛張聲勢或談判策略。

For the second time in less than a month, Goldman Sachs has increased its tariff assumptions. The Wall Street bank now sees a 35% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously.

高盛在不到一個月內第二次上調關稅影響預期，該投行現預測美國未來12個月陷入衰退的概率從20%升至35%。

The White House has pushed back on concerns about short-term market and economic turbulence by arguing Trump’s efforts will pay off in the long run.

白宮反駁了對短期市場動蕩的擔憂，堅稱特朗普的政策將帶來長期收益。

“The president will be announcing a tariff plan that will roll back the unfair trade practices that have been ripping off our country for decades. He’s doing this in the best interest of the American worker,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Monday.

白宮新聞秘書卡羅琳·萊維特周一對記者表示：“總統(tǒng)即將公布的關稅計劃將扭轉數十年來掠奪美國的不公平貿易行為，這完全是為了美國工人的最大利益。”

Of course, Trump imposed tariffs during his first term and the US economy did not suffer stagflation or a recession (though it was weakening as the pandemic struck).

當然，特朗普首任期實施關稅時，美國經濟未陷入滯脹或衰退（盡管疫情前已顯疲態(tài)）。

But the world is very different today. Inflation is much higher, as are interest rates. Central bankers, investors and consumers are much more sensitive to price changes.And what Trump is doing is far more aggressive.

但如今環(huán)境截然不同：通脹與利率水平更高，央行、投資者及消費者對價格波動更為敏感，而特朗普此次行動激進程度遠超以往。

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the average person didn’t notice tariffs during Trump’s first term in their day-to-day lives,” said York, the Tax Foundation executive. “But what we’re talking about now would be so broad that it would be impossible not to notice it.”

稅務基金會高管約克表示：“如果普通人在特朗普的第一任期內沒有在日常生活中注意到關稅，我不會感到驚訝。但我們現在討論的關稅范圍如此廣泛，以至于不可能不注意到它?！?/b>

‘Truly ridiculous’
“Trump, tariffs, massive uncertainty—how can you do business planning with all of this uncertainty and the daily changes in direction made by the Trump administration?” one computer and electronic manufacturer told the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in a survey released Monday.

"荒誕至極"
某計算機電子制造商在達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行周一發(fā)布的調查中抱怨：“特朗普，關稅，巨大的不確定性——在這種不確定性和特朗普政府每日變化的方向下，如何進行商業(yè)規(guī)劃？”一位計算機和電子產品制造商在周一發(fā)布的一項調查中告訴達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行。

A mineral product manufacturer similarly complained about the question marks swirling around the economy.“Tariffs! We need to make decisions, but the ball is constantly moving. This is truly ridiculous,” the manufacturing executive wrote. “I have been in business for 50 years as of next year, and never have I seen such uncertainty in the market.”

某礦產企業(yè)高管同樣痛陳經濟迷霧："關稅！我們需要決策，但規(guī)則時刻在變。這簡直荒誕至極。"這位制造業(yè)高管寫道，“明年我就做生意50年了，但我在市場上從未見過如此大的不確定性?！?/b>

York worries the only “silver lining” of universal tariffs would be that people will realize how dangerous tariffs can be. She compared it with a child who touches a stove and quickly finds out how hot it is.“We will learn a very hard lesson very fast and maybe not make the mistake again,” York said.

約克擔憂，普遍性關稅唯一的"好處"或是讓人們認清其危害性。她比喻道："就像孩子觸碰爐灶后立即明白高溫危險。我們將迅速汲取慘痛教訓，或許不再重蹈覆轍。"

‘Legitimate concerns’
Leavitt acknowledged Tuesday that Americans consumers’ concerns about tariffs are understandable, but she urged patience for the president’s economic plan to work.“Well, certainly they are legitimate concerns, and the president takes those concerns very seriously, and he’s addressing them every single day,” Leavitt said at a press briefing Tuesday afternoon.

"合理關切"
萊維特周二承認消費者擔憂情有可原，但呼吁對總統(tǒng)經濟計劃保持耐心。她在下午記者會上表示："這些擔憂當然合理，總統(tǒng)高度重視并每日著力解決。"

“Tomorrow’s announcement is to protect future generations,” Leavitt said. “It’s for their kids and their grandkids to ensure that there are jobs here in the United States of America for their children to live the American Dream.”

萊維特說：“明天的宣布是為了保護未來的幾代人。這是為了他們的孩子和孫子們，確保美國有工作機會，讓他們的孩子能夠實現美國夢。”

Leavitt said Trump’s plans for tax cuts and deregulation will help lower inflation, perhaps counteracting the effect of tariffs. Economists, however, have cast doubt on that claim. Goldman Sachs analysts in a recent note said economic growth driven by Trump’s fiscal policies would not be able to make up for the damage done by his massive tariff plan.

萊維特表示，特朗普的減稅和放松管制計劃將有助于降低通貨膨脹，也許能夠抵消關稅的影響。然而，經濟學家對這一說法提出了質疑。高盛的分析師在最近的報告中表示，由特朗普財政政策推動的經濟增長無法彌補他的大規(guī)模關稅計劃帶來的損害。

Leavitt encouraged drawing a comparison with Trump’s first term, when the stock market reached record highs.“He is working on implementing that economic formula every single day by lowering inflation, lowering energy prices, massive deregulatory efforts while simultaneously effectively implementing tariffs, and you’ll hear more about that announcement tomorrow,” Leavitt said.

萊維特呼吁對照特朗普首任期股市創(chuàng)紀錄的表現："總統(tǒng)正通過抑制通脹、降低能源價格、大規(guī)模放松監(jiān)管與有效實施關稅，每日踐行其經濟方案。明日公布詳情時將披露更多信息。"
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Asked by Fox News’ Peter Doocy whether the White House could shift strategy if its tariff plan fails, Leavitt rejected the question.“They’re not going to be wrong,” Leavitt said. “It is going to work, and the president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades, and we are focused on restoring the Golden Age of America and making America manufacturing superpower.”

當福克斯新聞記者彼得·杜西問及"若關稅計劃失敗是否會調整策略"時，萊維特斷然否認："計劃絕不會出錯。總統(tǒng)擁有研究該議題數十年的頂尖顧問團隊，我們致力于重建美國黃金時代，并使美國重獲制造業(yè)霸主地位。"