Steven Haddock
Okay, let’s take a single example.

好吧，讓我給你舉一個例子。


This is nickel, a ferromagnetic metal. It’s used in all sorts of applications from stainless steel to batteries to electroplating

這是鎳，一種鐵磁性金屬。它被廣泛用于各種場景，從制造不銹鋼到電池再到電鍍。

Now, Canada has very large reserves of nickel. It used to produce about 80% of the world’s supply, and it still has about 2.2 million tons of reserves. Indonesia currently has the largest reserves at 55 million tons.

加拿大擁有非常豐富的鎳儲量。過去它曾為全球市場供應(yīng)約80%的鎳產(chǎn)量，如今仍擁有約220萬噸的儲量。而印度尼西亞目前擁有最大的鎳儲量，達(dá)5500萬噸。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


And here’s how much nickel Canada produced per year.

以下是加拿大每年的鎳產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處



Now, look at that 2016 figure - about 220,000 tonnes (metric, a little more than a ton).
Total U.S. nickel reserves - are 300,000 tons. That’s less than two years of typical Canadian production.
And a lot of Canadian nickel goes to the United States. Because we have it, and the United States doesn’t.

看看2016年的數(shù)字——大約22萬噸（公噸，比美噸稍多一點）。美國的鎳總儲量是多少？30萬噸。這還不到加拿大兩年的產(chǎn)量。而且大量加拿大的鎳出口到了美國，因為我們有鎳，而美國沒有。


And that’s not the only thing. Canada has roughly eight times the amount of uranium the United States does.

這還不是全部。加拿大的鈾儲量大約是美國的八倍。

And sometimes, even with tariffs, it might be cheaper to source from Canada. For example, auto parts are made in Canada because one of the highest labour costs for American producers is “health insurance”. The people who make auto parts are highly skilled, unxized, and can get what they ask for.

有時，即便存在關(guān)稅，從加拿大采購的成本仍然更便宜。例如，汽車零部件是在加拿大制造的，因為同樣的產(chǎn)品如果在美國生產(chǎn)，美國生產(chǎn)商需要付出的最高的勞動力成本是員工的“健康保險”。制造汽車零部件的美國工人技術(shù)精湛、工會化程度高，他們理所當(dāng)然的會提出并獲得更高的薪資。

Jonathan A. Swift
Before the last election, Republicans were whining about “worker shortage”.
Such a strange way to complain about having “too many jobs”!
Elon said he needed more visas to import foreign workers to fill job openings.

在上次選舉之前，共和黨人一直在抱怨“勞動力短缺”。
這是一種很奇怪的方式來表達(dá)“工作崗位太多”的問題！
埃隆·馬斯克曾表示他需要更多的簽證來引進(jìn)外國工人填補職位空缺。

But now we are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to create more jobs, when unemployment was already low and struggling to find enough workers to fill the jobs already open.

但現(xiàn)在，我們正在花費數(shù)千億美元來創(chuàng)造更多的工作崗位，而失業(yè)率已經(jīng)很低，企業(yè)已經(jīng)在努力尋找足夠的工人來填補現(xiàn)有的空缺崗位。

All we need to do to avoid tariffs is get rid of the idiot who keeps creating them.

我們只需要做一件事就可以避免關(guān)稅：那就是趕走那個不斷制造關(guān)稅的傻瓜。

Wise Old Fool
HMM. Here’s the simple answer for simpletons who think simply. It’s very short.
It’s because
we don’t have all the raw materials for everything produced or consumed during manufacturing
we don’t have the expertise to produce everything that’s produced
we can’t afford to make everything we consume. The average wage for American workers is just under $30/hr. The average wage for Chinese workers: under $7/hr.
When was the last time an American car exceeded quality standards? Domestically produced vehicles rarely make it onto the list of most reliable cars.
Where does Donald and Ivanka go for their products? China.
Why in the world would anybody want to turn America back into a sweatshop?

嗯，這里有一個簡單的答案，給那些思考簡單的人。非常簡短。
原因在于：
1.我們沒有生產(chǎn)或消費所需的所有原材料。
2.我們沒有能力生產(chǎn)所有東西。
3.我們負(fù)擔(dān)不起自己生產(chǎn)所有消費的東西。美國工人的平均工資是每小時30美元，而中國工人的平均工資不到每小時7美元。
4.上次美國生產(chǎn)的汽車超過質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是什么時候？國產(chǎn)車輛很少登上最可靠汽車的榜單。
5.唐納德和伊萬卡去哪里找他們的產(chǎn)品？中國。
6.為什么總有人想把美國變回“血汗工廠”？

R. Frawley
What do you need in order to produce a product?

為了生產(chǎn)一個產(chǎn)品，你需要什么？

1.) Raw materials. We don’t have all the raw materials for every product, or we might need more factories to make them first. Say making shoes—ok, but first we need a lot more leather tanneries. That will take time to build up.
2.) Factory facilities. Obviously we don’t currently have the capacity to replace all this right away:
So we have to build new factories. Rivian company is building a new factory in Georgia. It will take two years to get it up and running.

1.原材料。我們沒有所有產(chǎn)品的原材料，我們需要更多的工廠來制造這些前置原材料。比如說要造好一雙鞋的前提是我們需要更多的皮革廠。而打造這些原材料工廠需要時間。
2.工廠設(shè)施。顯然，我們目前不具備即刻取代海外舊工廠的能力：
所以我們需要在本土建造新的工廠。Rivian公司正在喬治亞州建造一座新工廠，但它需要兩年時間才能投入運營。

3.) Workers. Our unemployment level is only 4%, and not everyone is going to want to work in a factory.
4.) So we’re going to need more immigration! Factories in the US have *always* been staffed mainly by immigrants, whether from Quebec or Poland.
Does your daughter or sister want to work at this job?

3.工人。盡管我們的失業(yè)率只有4%，并不是每個人都愿意在工廠工作。
4.所以我們需要更多移民！美國工廠的主要勞動力一直都是由移民構(gòu)成的，無論他來自魁北克還是波蘭。
您的女兒或姐妹愿意從事這樣的體力活兒嗎？

5.) *Everything* will have to cost more!! Why did companies start manufacturing overseas? To save money. US workers cannot and will not work for $1 an hour, while people in Bangladesh might have better lives at that rate of pay.

5.所有東西都會變得更貴！企業(yè)在海外制造產(chǎn)品的初衷是什么？為了省錢。美國工人不可能也不愿意以每小時1美元的工資工作，而孟加拉國的人可能會因此過上更好的生活。

6.) Some products cannot be grown in the US. We have no banana farms, or tea plantations, and coffee is only produced in very small (and expensive) quantities in Hawaii. You will only be able to have whatever fresh products are available in season. No strawberries in winter. No apples in early summer. Very few avocados ( Imported avocados now account for 90% of the domestic supply)—and you first need to grow an entire tree!

6.有些產(chǎn)品無法在美國種植。我們沒有香蕉農(nóng)場、茶園，咖啡只在夏威夷少量生產(chǎn)（且價格昂貴）。你只能吃到當(dāng)季的新鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。冬天不再有草莓供應(yīng)，初夏沒有蘋果，牛油果也很少（進(jìn)口牛油果現(xiàn)在占國內(nèi)供應(yīng)的90%）——而且哪怕只是為了能吃到應(yīng)季農(nóng)產(chǎn)品你也得先種一整棵樹！

7.) Some products are superior in certain countries. Yes, we make wine and cheese and olive oil and soy sauce and spirits—but people like French champagne and Italian cheese and Spanish olive oil and Japanese soy sauce and Scotch from Scotland. No more of any of that.

7.某些國家的產(chǎn)品更好。是的，我們也生產(chǎn)葡萄酒、奶酪、橄欖油和醬油——但人們喜歡法國香檳、意大利奶酪、西班牙橄欖油、日本醬油和蘇格蘭威士忌。以后這些東西都沒了。

8.) Ever been to an ethnic grocery store? Shut them all down—no more Japanese products or Chinese products or Italian grocery stores, or German sausage.

8.你去過移民商店嗎？關(guān)掉所有這些店吧——不再有日本產(chǎn)品、中國產(chǎn)品、意大利雜貨店或德國香腸了。

As long ago as 1776, Adam Smith wrote a book called The Wealth of Nations, in which he explained that different places have different specialties, and by trading, everybody is better off.

早在1776年，亞當(dāng)·斯密就寫了一本書叫《國富論》，他在書中解釋說，不同的地方有不同的專長，通過貿(mào)易，每個人都會過得更好。

Too bad Dear Leader never read it.

可惜我們“親愛的領(lǐng)袖”從未讀過這本書。

David Wagner
That's an excellent idea! So why don't you start doing that? What? You don't know how? There's the Internet. YouTube videos. Do your own research. You don't have the money? Come up with a plan and go on "Shark Tank". It's easy to "just make everything in the US". The Sharks will fall all over themselves to fund you! Or, ask Elon, he's got tons of money. Now that you got your funding, start setting up the places where you're going to "just make everything in the US". I mean, how long can that take? A week? a month? 2? Then start hiring the people to train how to "just make everything in the US". Oh, yeah , you're going to have to source raw materials, so you'll also going to "just mine everything in the US" too. And you're also going to have to "just power everything in the US" too, so your going to have to "just build out the country's electrical grid". Then just get get working and there you go! Easy-peasy.

這是一個絕妙的想法！那為什么不開始這么做呢？什么？你不知道該怎么做？互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上有很多資源，油管上也有視頻。自己去研究吧。什么？你沒有錢？想個創(chuàng)業(yè)計劃，然后去參加《創(chuàng)智贏家》節(jié)目吧（Shark Tank）。在美國“生產(chǎn)一切”是很容易的！投資人會爭先恐后地給你資金支持！或者問問埃隆，他有很多錢?，F(xiàn)在你拿到資金了，開始打造你打算“在美國生產(chǎn)一切”的基地吧。我的意思是，這需要多長時間？一個星期？一個月？兩個月？然后開始雇傭和培訓(xùn)員工，教他們?nèi)绾巍霸诿绹a(chǎn)一切”。哦，對了，你還得采購原材料，所以你還得“在美國開采一切”。你還得“為美國提供所有電力”，所以你還得“擴(kuò)建國家電網(wǎng)”。然后就這樣著手動工吧，就是這么簡單！一切都簡單至極。

Sven Dirks
as Biden who started it, Trump killed it. No more US American chips, not even in the far future. You know, stick it to the libs and all.

拜登只是延續(xù)了特朗普的做法，而特朗普則徹底摧毀了它。不再有美國制造的芯片，甚至在未來也不會有。你知道嗎，這就是所謂的“打擊自由派”。

No chips means no TV, no computer, no cellphone, no smart appliance, no modern car, no modern phone, no modern farming equipment like milking machines, no electronic banking, no GPS, no air travel for the masses and so on and so forth.

沒有芯片意味著沒有電視、沒有電腦、沒有手機、沒有智能家電、沒有現(xiàn)代汽車、沒有現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)設(shè)備比如擠奶機、沒有電子銀行、沒有GPS、沒有大眾航空旅行，等等等等。

All the Mango Messiah does with his utterly stupid tariffs is making things more expensive. These days, there is no conceivable way for any single country to make everything needed in a modern society.

這個“芒果救世主”用他極其愚蠢的關(guān)稅政策所做的唯一事情就是讓一切變得更貴。在當(dāng)今社會，任何一個國家都不可能獨自生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)代社會所需的一切。

Sure, you could go back to, say, the time between WW I and WW II. At that level of technology, you’d be able to make most things in the US. There would still have to be compromises, but you could get by, I suppose. You’d also have the standard of living of the 1930s.

當(dāng)然，你可以回到一戰(zhàn)和二戰(zhàn)之間的那個時代。在那樣的技術(shù)水平下，你或許可以在美國生產(chǎn)大部分東西。雖然需要一些妥協(xié)，但我想還是可以湊合過的。不過，你的生活水平也將停留在1930年代。

Mick Cane
Do you have any idea how long it takes to set up aluminium production from scratch? Or of how much investment is needed?

你知道從零開始建立制鋁工廠需要多長時間嗎？或者需要多少投資嗎？

Now, bear this in mind: aluminium production left the US, because it could be made more cheaply elsewhere. The only thing that would ever make it competitive (but only in the USA) is a tariff (tax) on imported aluminium.

記住這一點：金屬鋁的生產(chǎn)之所以離開美國，是因為在其他地方可以以更便宜的成本生產(chǎn)。唯一能讓它在美國具有競爭力的方法是對進(jìn)口鋁征收關(guān)稅。

So, say, I’m a billionaire with cash to invest. A startup comes to me with a proposal to build a $5billion aluminium smelter. With fast-track planning, ignoring ecological concerns and ramming through consents with no public input, they reckon they should be up to full production by 2035, at which point the ROI will be blah blah…

假設(shè)我是手上有一大筆錢可以投資的億萬富翁。一家初創(chuàng)公司來找我，提出一個50億美元的鋁冶煉廠建設(shè)計劃。如果快速推進(jìn)規(guī)劃，忽略生態(tài)問題，并強行通過審批而不考慮公眾意見，他們估計到2035年才能實現(xiàn)全面生產(chǎn)，屆時的投資回報率將是巴拉巴拉……

Now, I didn’t get to be a billionaire by putting my faith in the immutability of government policy so, of course, I’m going to do my due diligence and discover that the only way they’ll ever turn a profit is if those tariffs are still there in 2035. If they’re not, I’ve just invested billions in a total white elephant.

但我之所以成為億萬富翁，并不是因為我相信政府政策不會改變，所以我當(dāng)然要做盡職調(diào)查，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)他們唯一的盈利方式是這些關(guān)稅必須持續(xù)到2035年。如果關(guān)稅取消了，那我就白白投資了數(shù)十億美元在一個毫無價值的項目上。

OK. Now you be that billionaire. Are you going to invest in that smelter?

好了，現(xiàn)在輪到你做這個億萬富翁了。你會投資這個鋁冶煉廠嗎？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


Andy Bradford
Greed. Greed. Greed.

貪婪。貪婪。貪婪

Back in the days following your first Great Depression (Your second is on it’s way unless Trump is deposed) the US agreed Tarrifs so that US Companies could sell more abroad and make bigger and bigger profits. And that built you a huge trade surplus, exporting all your manufactured goods to poorer countries which didn’t have the manufacturing capability. And all was good in America. Standard of living soared, wages soared and prices of exports rose to pay for it.

在你們經(jīng)歷第一次大蕭條之后（除非特朗普下臺，否則第二次大蕭條即將到來），美國同意實施關(guān)稅，這樣美國公司就可以在國外銷售更多商品，并賺取越來越高的利潤。這讓美國建立了巨大的貿(mào)易順差，將所有制造的商品出口到那些沒有生產(chǎn)能力的貧窮國家。當(dāng)時美國一切都很好，生活水平飆升，工資飆升，出口商品的價格上漲用以覆蓋這一切支出。

But all these poor countries started developing their own manufacturing capability. Why import expensive goods from the USA if we can make them cheaper in our own country AND create jobs for our own people.
These poor countries increased capacity and now had surplus goods to sell. With much lower wages to pay, manufacturers in foreign countries could now sell their similar products to the USA at half the price of US manufactured products. And because of the greed of the US consumer, they wanted the obxt at the cheapest price, not caring about the job security of US workers.

但是，所有這些貧窮國家開始發(fā)展自己的制造業(yè)。為什么要從美國進(jìn)口昂貴的商品，而不是在本國以更便宜地成本生產(chǎn)，同時還能為本國人民創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會呢？
這些貧窮國家擴(kuò)大了產(chǎn)能，現(xiàn)在有了過剩的商品可以出售。由于外國制造商支付的工資遠(yuǎn)低于美國，他們能夠以美國制造產(chǎn)品一半的價格將類似產(chǎn)品賣到美國。而由于美國消費者的貪婪，他們只想要最便宜的商品，根本不在乎美國工人的就業(yè)保障。

US companies were trapped by the greed of the investors. Profits have to be increased year on year or else. Grow, grow, grow. Nobody is satisfied with “This is enough or me”. What can the Companies now do? They can’t cut workers wages - they are already paying the minimum they can. They won’t cut unproductive staff like managers to improve efficiency because that is them. They can’t cut production because that reduces turnover. Only thing left to feed the investors greed is to move manufacture to somewhere cheaper. i.e. a country where labour costs are cheap. The factories in the USA are closed down losing US jobs and new factories are built where labour is cheap - i.e. China, Vietnam, Taiwan etc. The USA has now turned it’s huge trade surplus in to a huge trade deficit.

美國公司被投資者的貪婪困住了。利潤必須逐年增長，否則就完蛋了。增長、增長、再增長。沒有人滿足于“這就夠了”。那么公司現(xiàn)在能做什么？他們不能削減工人工資——他們已經(jīng)支付了最低限度的工資。他們不會裁掉無效率的管理層來提高效率，因為那些管理層就是他們自己。他們不能減少生產(chǎn)，因為那樣會降低營業(yè)額。唯一能滿足投資者貪婪的辦法就是將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到成本更低的地方，也就是勞動力便宜的國家。于是，美國的本土工廠關(guān)閉了，美國的工作崗位流失了，新的工廠在勞動力便宜的地方建立起來——比如中國、越南、臺灣（地區(qū)）等。到這時候美國已經(jīng)將其巨大的貿(mào)易順差轉(zhuǎn)變成了巨大的貿(mào)易逆差。

Along comes the even greedier Cockwomble of a President of the Divided States of America (who has already bankrupt half a dozen of his own companies and is now trying to break world records by Bankrupting the DSA) with his assinine ideas of how to fix this by applying tariffs on imports. President “Nobody knows more about Economics than I do” Cockwomble with his degree in Economics from Wharton Business School is ignoring every single economics principle he should have been taught if he really had studied for that degree (anyone else think he probably paid someone else to sit his exams?) and he thinks that putting tariffs on imports is going to magically get all these manufacturers to instantly move factories across oceans back to a place of very high wages, very high regulation and complete uncertainty about what is happening next week.

這時，一個更加貪婪的“分裂國總統(tǒng)”（指特朗普）出現(xiàn)了（他已經(jīng)讓自己的六家公司破產(chǎn)，現(xiàn)在正試圖打破世界紀(jì)錄，把整個國家搞破產(chǎn)），帶著他那愚蠢的想法，試圖通過加征進(jìn)口關(guān)稅來解決這個問題?！皼]人比我更懂經(jīng)濟(jì)”的總統(tǒng)先生，擁有沃頓商學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)位的他，完全忽視了他在學(xué)校應(yīng)該學(xué)到的所有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理（沒人覺得他可能是花錢雇槍手替他考試嗎？）。他認(rèn)為加征關(guān)稅會讓這些制造商立刻把工廠從大洋彼岸搬回美國這個高工資、高監(jiān)管、對未來政策預(yù)期完全不確定的地方。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


All the imports which the US consumes are purchased by the American people. The only place those tariffs can end up is on prices of goods in the US. Businesses are too greedy to take a loss - the investors won’t accept it. Today’s 145% tariffs on China will mean that prices for everything made in China is going to nearly double in the shop. Inflation is about to go out of control in the US.

所有美國消費的進(jìn)口商品都是由美國人民購買的。這些關(guān)稅最終只會體現(xiàn)在美國商品的價格上。企業(yè)太貪婪了，不可能承擔(dān)損失——投資者不會接受的。今天對中國商品征收的145%關(guān)稅意味著所有中國制造的商品價格在商店里幾乎要翻倍。美國的通貨膨脹即將失控。

All the US companies who have moved manufacture to e.g. China, are never going to move them back because US labour is too expensive. i.e. their prices will be too high so they will export nothing. They are going to continue to manufacture abroad, and just add the tariffs on for US customers, sell to the rest of the world without being penalised for manufacturing in the US and watch their profits continue to grow.

所有將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到中國等地的美國公司永遠(yuǎn)不會搬回來，因為美國勞動力成本太高了。也就是說，他們的價格會過高，無法出口任何商品。他們將繼續(xù)在國外生產(chǎn)，并只為美國客戶加上關(guān)稅，同時向世界其他地區(qū)銷售商品而不受懲罰，繼續(xù)看著他們的利潤增長。

So why don’t they just move manufacturing back to the USA? Because they can’t afford to.

那么，為什么他們不把生產(chǎn)搬回美國呢？因為他們負(fù)擔(dān)不起。

Bryan Caldwell
Let’s look at what it takes to make “everything” in the US.

讓我們來看看在美國制造“一切”需要什么。

Say you make widgets. Every one of the raw materials that goes into each widget is produced in the U.S. So far, so good. What about the tools used to make the widgets? Are they all made in the U.S., or if a tool has to be replaced will its replacement price be subject to a tariff because it is made overseas? Are the light bulbs in your factory made in the U.S.? If not, they’ll have to be replaced with foreign made light bulbs that will be more expensive after the imposition of tariffs.

假設(shè)你生產(chǎn)小掛件。每個小掛件所需的所有原材料都在美國生產(chǎn)。到目前為止，一切順利。那么，用來制造這些小掛件的工具在哪里呢？它們是否全部由美國制造？如果某個生產(chǎn)工具需要更換，它的替代品是否會因為是在海外制造而受到關(guān)稅的影響，導(dǎo)致價格上漲？工廠里的燈泡是美國制造的嗎？如果不是，那就需要用外國制造的燈泡來替換，而這些燈泡在關(guān)稅實施后會變得更貴。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


What about the cardboard boxes you ship your widgets in? Are they made in the U.S.? Will your next order for cardboard boxes be the same as your last order, or will they be more expensive because of the imposition of tariffs? How about the instruction booklet you include with every widget? Is that printed in the U.S.? How about the energy used to power your manufacturing plant? Is that all energy produced in the U.S. or does some of it come from Canada (meaning that it will cost more when tariffs are imposed on Canadian energy).

裝運小掛件用的紙箱呢？它們是美國制造的嗎？下一批紙箱訂單的價格會不會和上一次一樣，還是因為關(guān)稅的原因變得更貴？每件小掛件附帶的說明書呢？它們是在美國印刷的嗎？為你的制造工廠供電的能源呢？這些能源是否全部來自美國，還是有一部分來自加拿大（這意味著當(dāng)對加拿大能源征收關(guān)稅時，成本會增加）？

What about the cleaning products you use to keep your factory spic and span? Or the products used in your employee bathrooms? How about the computers you use to keep your accounting books and the printers you use every day? How much more will they cost when they have to be periodically replaced? Do you see where this is going?


你在工廠里使用的清潔用品呢？或者員工廁所里使用的衛(wèi)生用品？還有你用來記賬的電腦和每天使用的打印機呢？當(dāng)這些設(shè)備需要定期更換時，它們的成本會增加多少？你明白我的意思了嗎？

When tariffs are imposed upon almost every other country in the world, even a product made entirely of U.S. raw materials is going to be more expensive to make because manufacturing costs will increase - pretty much across the board. Most small U.S. companies operate on very slim profit margins. They can’t afford to absorb losses in manufacturing costs. They have no choice but to increase prices to the retail consumer.

當(dāng)幾乎對世界上所有其他國家都征收關(guān)稅時，即使一個產(chǎn)品完全由美國原材料制成，其制造成本也會更高，因為制造業(yè)的整體成本會普遍上升。大多數(shù)美國小型公司的利潤空間非常微薄。他們無法承受制造成本上升帶來的損失。他們別無選擇，只能將價格上漲轉(zhuǎn)嫁給零售消費者。