Artificial intelligence may bring about the end of the world as we know it – but not in the way most would expect

正如我們所知，人工智能可能會帶來世界末日——但不是以大多數(shù)人所期望的方式

The global economy was already navigating a minefield of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) when US President Donald J. Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs reverberated across international markets. This aggressive escalation of trade barriers, including a mélange of sudden rate hikes, retaliatory measures, and rhetorical brinkmanship, didn’t just amplify the chaos; it ignited the specter of a full-blown economic firestorm.

全球經(jīng)濟早已在波動性、不確定性、復(fù)雜性和模糊性（VUCA）的雷區(qū)中艱難前行，而美國總統(tǒng)唐納德·J·特朗普的“解放日”關(guān)稅卻在國際市場上引發(fā)了震動。這種激進的貿(mào)易壁壘升級，包括突然的稅率上調(diào)、報復(fù)性措施和口頭上的邊緣政策，不僅放大了混亂，還點燃了一場全面經(jīng)濟風(fēng)暴的幽靈。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


Volatility unleashed
The moment the tariffs were announced, markets convulsed. Stock indices plummeted, erasing $2.1 trillion in global market cap within days, while currency markets whipsawed as traders scrambled to price in the fallout. Supply chains, still reeling from pandemic-era disruptions, faced new shocks. Factories in Vietnam scrambled to reroute shipments, German automakers recalculated production costs overnight, and Chinese exporters braced for 145% retaliatory duties on key goods. The tariffs acted like a sledgehammer to an already teetering Jenga tower of global trade, with each blow amplifying volatility far beyond their intended targets.

波動性爆發(fā)
關(guān)稅宣布的那一刻，市場劇烈震蕩。全球股市指數(shù)暴跌，幾天內(nèi)蒸發(fā)了2.1萬億美元的全球市值，而貨幣市場則因交易員爭相評估后果而劇烈波動。供應(yīng)鏈仍在從疫情時期的干擾中恢復(fù)，又面臨新的沖擊。越南的工廠匆忙重新安排運輸，德國汽車制造商連夜重新計算生產(chǎn)成本，中國出口商則為關(guān)鍵商品面臨的145%報復(fù)性關(guān)稅做準(zhǔn)備。關(guān)稅就像一把大錘，砸向本已搖搖欲墜的全球貿(mào)易積木塔，每一擊都將波動性遠遠放大，超出了其預(yù)定目標(biāo)。

Uncertainty weaponized
While volatility reigned, the tariff war between the United States and China introduced a deeper, more corrosive uncertainty. Businesses accustomed to stable trade rules now faced policy seesaws. Exemptions granted one day were revoked almost overnight while the constant threat of broader tariffs were dangled without clarity on timing or scope.
CEOs delayed investments, fearing sudden cost hikes. The Federal Reserve, already grappling with inflation, found itself trapped in a Catch-22 situation: raise rates to tame inflation and risk recession, or hold steady and watch confidence erode. Meanwhile, allies like the EU and Canada retaliated with precision strikes on politically sensitive US exports, ranging from bourbon to motorcycles, threatening 2.6 million American jobs at one point. The potential unemployment tallies just kept rising worldwide.
The message was clear: no one was safe from the fallout.

不確定性被武器化
在波動性肆虐的同時，美國與中國之間的關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)引入了一種更深層、更具腐蝕性的不確定性。習(xí)慣于穩(wěn)定貿(mào)易規(guī)則的企業(yè)如今面臨政策的大起大落。一天前獲得的豁免幾乎在一夜之間被撤銷，而更廣泛關(guān)稅的持續(xù)威脅懸而未決，時間和范圍均無明確說明。
首席執(zhí)行官們推遲了投資，擔(dān)心成本突然上漲。已經(jīng)應(yīng)對通貨膨脹的美聯(lián)儲發(fā)現(xiàn)自己陷入進退兩難的境地：提高利率以遏制通脹可能引發(fā)衰退，或保持穩(wěn)定則眼看信心逐漸侵蝕。與此同時，歐盟和加拿大等盟友對政治上敏感的美國出口產(chǎn)品（如波本威士忌和摩托車）實施精準(zhǔn)報復(fù)性打擊，一度威脅到260萬個美國就業(yè)崗位。全球潛在的失業(yè)人數(shù)持續(xù)上升。
信息很明確：沒有人能從這場余波中幸免。

Complexity spirals out of control
As the trade war escalated, the global economic order began to fracture. Nations abandoned decades of multilateralism in favor of ad hoc alliances. China fast-tracked deals with the EU and ASEAN and began to court rivals Japan and India. The US, on the other hand, found itself isolated. Companies, desperate to adapt, began planning redundant supply chains – one for tariff-free markets and another for the US. This only served as a costly and inefficient hedge against further disruptions. Regulatory labyrinths simultaneously emerged overnight. A single auto part might now face several different tariff rates depending on its origin, destination, and material composition. The system now groaned under the weight of its runaway complexity.

復(fù)雜性螺旋失控
隨著貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的升級，全球經(jīng)濟秩序開始破裂。各國放棄了數(shù)十年的多邊主義，轉(zhuǎn)而青睞臨時聯(lián)盟。中國加速與歐盟和東盟達成交易，并開始拉攏競爭對手日本和印度。另一方面，美國發(fā)現(xiàn)自己陷入孤立。企業(yè)為了適應(yīng)局勢，拼命開始規(guī)劃冗余供應(yīng)鏈——一個針對免關(guān)稅市場，另一個針對美國。這只是對進一步中斷的一種昂貴且低效的對沖措施。與此同時，監(jiān)管迷宮一夜之間涌現(xiàn)。一個汽車零部件現(xiàn)在可能因其原產(chǎn)地、目的地和材料構(gòu)成而面臨幾種不同的關(guān)稅稅率。整個系統(tǒng)在失控的復(fù)雜性重壓下不堪重負(fù)。

Ambiguity: Strategy or stumbling block?
Worst of all was the ambiguity. Trump frxd the tariffs as a “negotiating tool” to revive US manufacturing, yet no coherent industrial policy followed. Were these temporary measures or a permanent decoupling from China? Would they actually bring jobs back, or simply raise prices for consumers? The administration’s mixed signals left allies questioning America’s reliability and adversaries probing for weakness. Geopolitically, the tariffs accelerated a crisis of trust. NATO allies doubted US commitments, Southeast Asian nations hedged toward Beijing, and the Global South explored alternatives to the dollar. The longer the ambiguity persisted, the more the world adapted to a reality where the US was no longer the anchor of the global economy.
What makes these tariffs uniquely dangerous is their role as a VUCA multiplier. They don’t just create volatility – they lock it in. Uncertainty doesn’t subside – it metastasizes. Complexity isn’t resolved – it becomes the new normal. And ambiguity isn’t clarified – it is weaponized. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle: tariffs provoke retaliation, which fuels inflation, which strains central banks, which spooks investors, which forces more protectionism. Meanwhile, the dollar’s dominance erodes, supply chains Balkanize, and businesses lose faith in long-term planning.

模糊性：戰(zhàn)略還是絆腳石？
最糟糕的是模糊性。特朗普將關(guān)稅說成是重振美國制造業(yè)的“談判工具”，卻并未出臺連貫的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策。這些措施究竟是暫時的，還是意味著與中國的永久脫鉤？它們真的能帶回就業(yè)崗位，還是僅僅提高消費者的價格？美國政府發(fā)出的混雜信號，讓盟友質(zhì)疑美國的可靠性，也讓對手們開始探尋美國的弱點。從地緣政治角度來看，關(guān)稅加劇了信任危機。北約盟友懷疑美國的承諾，東南亞國家對北京采取避險措施，而全球南方國家則探索美元的替代方案。這種模糊性持續(xù)的時間越長，世界就越適應(yīng)美國不再是全球經(jīng)濟支柱的現(xiàn)實。
這些關(guān)稅之所以格外危險，是因為它們扮演著“可變性、不穩(wěn)定性、不穩(wěn)定性”（VUCA）乘數(shù)的角色。它們不僅制造波動，還會將波動鎖定。不確定性不會消退，而是會不斷擴散。復(fù)雜性未得到解決，反而成為新常態(tài)。模糊性未得到澄清，反而被當(dāng)作武器。結(jié)果形成了一個自我強化的循環(huán)：關(guān)稅引發(fā)報復(fù)，加劇通脹，給央行帶來壓力，令投資者感到恐慌，最終迫使保護主義抬頭。與此同時，美元的主導(dǎo)地位受到削弱，供應(yīng)鏈分裂，企業(yè)對長期規(guī)劃失去信心。

AI as the VUCA force multiplier
When the first round of tariffs was imposed by Washington DC, traditional economic models anticipated familiar disruptions in the form of market corrections, supply chain adjustments, and eventual equilibrium. What these models missed was the presence of a new wildcard – AI systems that don’t just respond to volatility but can amplify it. Algorithmic trading platforms and predictive logistics tools, operating on assumptions of continuity, struggled to adapt to the sudden, chaotic shifts introduced by trade barriers. In some sectors, this has led to mismatches between inventory and demand, not because of human misjudgement, but due to machine learning models which are ill-equipped to handle the cascading effects of cross-sectoral VUCA.
AI is indeed accelerating the fragmentation of the global economic order. As nations implement competing AI systems to manage trade flows, we may see the emergence of parallel digital realities. One country’s customs AI might classify a product as tariff-free while another’s system slaps it with prohibitive duties. This isn’t just bureaucratic confusion; it represents the breakdown of shared frxworks that have enabled global commerce for decades. We used to worry about trade wars between nations; now we should worry about conflicts between the machines built to manage them. In a hypothetical future, trade wars will be fought by rival AI systems fighting proxy battles through markets, logistics, and information. Personally, I doubt this planet has scope for another crisis beyond this one, as Albert Einstein’s adage that WW4 will be fought with “sticks and stones” comes to mind.

人工智能作為VUCA力量倍增器
當(dāng)華盛頓特區(qū)實施第一輪關(guān)稅時，傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟模型預(yù)測會出現(xiàn)一些常見的市場調(diào)整、供應(yīng)鏈調(diào)整以及最終的均衡。這些模型忽略了一個新的不確定因素——人工智能系統(tǒng)，它不僅能應(yīng)對波動，還能放大波動?；谶B續(xù)性假設(shè)的算法交易平臺和預(yù)測物流工具難以適應(yīng)貿(mào)易壁壘帶來的突發(fā)性混亂變化。在某些行業(yè)，這導(dǎo)致了庫存與需求之間的錯配，這并非人為誤判，而是由于機器學(xué)習(xí)模型無法應(yīng)對跨行業(yè)VUCA的連鎖效應(yīng)。
人工智能確實正在加速全球經(jīng)濟秩序的碎片化。隨著各國紛紛采用相互競爭的人工智能系統(tǒng)來管理貿(mào)易流動，我們可能會看到平行的數(shù)字現(xiàn)實的出現(xiàn)。一個國家的海關(guān)人工智能可能將某種產(chǎn)品歸類為免關(guān)稅，而另一個國家的系統(tǒng)則對其征收高額關(guān)稅。這不僅僅是官僚主義的混亂，它代表著數(shù)十年來支撐全球貿(mào)易的共享框架的崩潰。我們過去常常擔(dān)心國家之間的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)；現(xiàn)在，我們應(yīng)該擔(dān)心那些為管理貿(mào)易而生的機器之間的沖突。假設(shè)未來，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)將由相互競爭的人工智能系統(tǒng)通過市場、物流和信息進行代理戰(zhàn)。我個人懷疑，除了這場危機之外，這個星球是否還能再承受一場危機，這讓我想起了阿爾伯特·愛因斯坦的名言：第四次世界大戰(zhàn)將用“棍棒和石頭”來打。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


In the midst of the ongoing VUCA torrent, many clueless bureaucrats and executives have quietly turned to AI, particularly GPTs, to make sense of the myriad crises facing their nations and institutions. Many flawed decisions may have been made and sums allocated for “future-proofing.” Let me tell you why this is a recipe for disaster: one prominent GPT model gave me not one but five (5) erroneous and wholly-fictitious examples of how AI had messed up the post-Liberation Day geo-economic landscape. And here is the scary part: only those well-versed in complex systems, global risks and AI would have discerned those flaws. Otherwise, the scenarios generated by the GPT model were generally more accurate than most of those voiced by pundits on prime time television.
Why did the GPT model make such mistakes? I am convinced that AI is being surreptitiously used to sift out the gullible from the indispensable, perhaps in preparation for a post-VUCA world. But that remains a relatively optimistic theory!

在持續(xù)不斷的VUCA洪流中，許多一無所知的官僚和高管悄悄地轉(zhuǎn)向人工智能，尤其是通用技術(shù)（GPT），以理解他們國家和機構(gòu)面臨的無數(shù)危機。他們可能做出了許多錯誤的決策，并撥出大量資金用于“未來防患于未然”。讓我來告訴你為什么這會導(dǎo)致災(zāi)難：一個著名的GPT模型給了我不止一個，而是五個完全虛構(gòu)的錯誤例子，說明人工智能如何擾亂了解放日后的地緣經(jīng)濟格局?？膳碌氖牵褐挥心切┚◤?fù)雜系統(tǒng)、全球風(fēng)險和人工智能的人才能辨別出這些缺陷。否則，GPT模型生成的情景通常比黃金時段電視上大多數(shù)專家提出的情景更準(zhǔn)確。
為什么GPT模型會犯這樣的錯誤？我確信，人工智能正被暗中用來篩選那些容易上當(dāng)?shù)娜撕筒豢苫蛉钡娜耍蛟S是為了為后VUCA時代做準(zhǔn)備。但這仍然是一個相對樂觀的理論！

Mass unemployment ahead?
AI and VUCA are rapidly converging to create the preconditions for the worst unemployment crisis since the Industrial Revolution. Back then, the West could resort to new markets in the form of colonies. This time, however, there are no new territories left to colonize – only the continued cannibalization of societies themselves. The accelerating spiral of global wealth inequality is not an anomaly; it is the clearest symptom of this internalized exploitation.
The world is not merely staring at job losses in specific sectors. No, this is about the simultaneous breakdown of multiple stabilizing mechanisms that have historically absorbed economic shocks.
Russia’s Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadaev recently claimed that half of his nation’s civil servants could be replaced by AI. Shadaev, however, noted that certain professions, such as doctors and teachers, cannot be replaced. Bill Gates thinks otherwise. He predicts that AI will swiftly replace humans in nearly every professional sphere, including teaching and medicine. For once, I wholly agree with Gates.
So, what do we do with the “excess humans”? Institute a CBDC-mediated rationing system as a stop-gap measure?

大規(guī)模失業(yè)即將來臨？
人工智能和VUCA正在迅速融合，為工業(yè)革命以來最嚴(yán)重的失業(yè)危機創(chuàng)造先決條件。當(dāng)時，西方可以以殖民地的形式開拓新市場。然而，這一次，沒有新的領(lǐng)土可供殖民——只有社會自身持續(xù)的蠶食。全球貧富差距的加速螺旋并非異常現(xiàn)象；它是這種內(nèi)化剝削最明顯的癥狀。
世界不僅僅是盯著特定行業(yè)的失業(yè)。不，這是關(guān)于歷史上吸收經(jīng)濟沖擊的多個穩(wěn)定機制同時崩潰的問題。
俄羅斯數(shù)字發(fā)展部長馬克蘇特·沙達耶夫最近聲稱，該國一半的公務(wù)員可能會被人工智能取代。然而，沙達耶夫指出，某些職業(yè)，例如醫(yī)生和教師，是無法被取代的。比爾·蓋茨卻不這么認(rèn)為。他預(yù)測，人工智能將在幾乎所有專業(yè)領(lǐng)域迅速取代人類，包括教學(xué)和醫(yī)學(xué)。這一次，我完全同意蓋茨的觀點。
那么，我們該如何處理這些“過剩人口”呢？建立一個由CBDC介導(dǎo)的配給制度作為權(quán)宜之計嗎？

Culmination of systemic global corruption
The VUCA-AI quagmire unfolding today is the consequence of decades of entrenched patronage systems that were perfected in the West and subsequently exported to the Third World. These were intrinsically corrupt systems that rewarded compliant mediocrity over critical thought. In sidelining genuine thinkers, these structures forfeited any real chance of forging a balanced, intelligent response to the collision between VUCA dynamics and artificial intelligence.
In the end, we are left with a world designed by clowns and supervised by monkeys, to borrow a phrase from a disillusioned Boeing pilot. Many Third World pundits and policymakers, themselves products of the West’s neocolonial machinery, are now advocating a wholesale pivot towards the BRICS bloc. Like courtiers in a globalist brothel suddenly desperate for new clientele, these elites now decry the very “inequalities” that once elevated them to cushy posts – at the expense of the citizens they claim to represent.
As far back as 1970, the Nobel Laureate Albert Szent-Gy?rgyi had warned of the consequences of the “terrible strain of idiots who govern the world.” Szent-Gy?rgyi, who bagged the Nobel Prize in Medicine (1937) for discovering Vitamin C had however hoped that the youth of the future would save humanity from a gerontocracy that cannot “assimilate new ideas.”

全球系統(tǒng)性腐敗的頂峰
如今正在上演的VUCA-AI泥潭，是數(shù)十年來根深蒂固的庇護體系的后果。這種體系在西方完善后，隨后被輸出到第三世界。這些體系本質(zhì)上是腐敗的，它獎勵的是順從的平庸之輩，而非批判性思考。由于將真正的思考者邊緣化，這些體系喪失了任何真正構(gòu)建平衡、智慧的應(yīng)對VUCA動力與人工智能碰撞的機會。
最終，我們只剩下一個由小丑設(shè)計、由猴子監(jiān)督的世界——借用一位失望的波音飛行員的話來說。許多第三世界的專家和政策制定者，本身就是西方新殖民主義機器的產(chǎn)物，如今卻鼓吹全面轉(zhuǎn)向金磚國家集團。就像全球主義妓院里的朝臣突然渴望新的客戶一樣，這些精英們現(xiàn)在譴責(zé)那些曾經(jīng)將他們推上舒適職位的“不平等”——而犧牲的卻是他們聲稱代表的公民。
早在1970年，諾貝爾獎得主阿爾伯特·圣捷爾吉就曾警告過“統(tǒng)治世界的可怕白癡”所帶來的后果。圣捷爾吉因發(fā)現(xiàn)維生素C而榮獲1937年諾貝爾醫(yī)學(xué)獎，但他也曾希望未來的年輕人能夠拯救人類，使其免于無法“吸收新思想”的老人政治。

Little did he know that the same gerontocracy had already hatched a plan to create a new breed of “young global leaders” – even children – who were more feckless and pliant than their predecessors. This may have been the real raison d’etre behind the World Economic Forum. Personally, I can find no other justification behind the founding of this institution.
In the end, individuals with real ideas – both young and old – have largely abandoned a system that no longer rewards insight, only compliance. Their views no longer appear on search engines as Big Tech had employed a variety of pretexts to shadowban their viewpoints.
However, the day may come when the phones of ideators may start ringing again in the quest for “solutions”. It will be too late by then.

他根本不知道，同樣的老人政治已經(jīng)制定了一項計劃，要打造一批新一代的“年輕全球領(lǐng)袖”——甚至包括孩子——他們比他們的前輩更加軟弱無能、唯命是從。這或許才是世界經(jīng)濟論壇存在的真正理由。就我個人而言，我實在找不到成立這個機構(gòu)的其他理由。
最終，擁有真正想法的人——無論老少——基本上已經(jīng)放棄了這個不再獎勵洞察力、只獎勵順從的體系。他們的觀點不再出現(xiàn)在搜索引擎上，因為大型科技公司已經(jīng)用各種借口對他們的觀點進行暗中屏蔽。
然而，或許有一天，思想家們的電話會再次響起，尋求“解決方案”。到那時就太晚了。